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Gold’s Investment Popularity Means Higher Risk And Volatility – Forbes

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Gold fundamentals are rapidly changing as investment funds take market share from jewelry buyers and central bankers.

The current surge in gold prices has rewarded holders of the precious metal with healthy returns thus far in 2020, with prices approaching levels not seen since 2011. This is good news for current owners of gold and gold mining securities, but with reward comes risk. Those holding or acquiring gold at today’s elevated price levels need to understand that along with prices, volatility and financial risks will rise as well.

The demand for gold is changing, that is to say, the types of buyers of gold are different now than they were in the pre COVID-19 world. This shift in the demand side of the traditional supply/demand equation will result in more price gyrations and far less predictability in gold prices than perhaps ever before.

Traditionally, the top buyers of gold, in order by volume, have always been individuals in the general population via jewelry, Investors, Central Banks and Technology Companies. Jewelry purchases have generally dwarfed all other gold purchase categories combined.

It is important to understand that individuals and Central Banks typically buy gold and hold it for long periods of time. Central Banks buy gold to fulfill economic and strategic policy goals, and individuals usually buy gold out of cultural tradition and custom. Technology companies buy gold to fulfill their manufacturing needs. In all three cases, gold is purchased when it is needed, usually regardless of price. In these instances acquisition is the intent, and there is generally no plan or intention to ever sell.

These buyers won’t sell their gold just because the price rises; they will sell because of economic necessity, not because of absolute price.  They provide steady, mostly non-speculative demand for gold, which, over time, can tend to limit, or at least diminish, gold’s price volatility.

Gold investors, however, behave differently. Investors are not buying gold to fulfill any policy objective, like a central bank, nor are they buying gold to mark a special event in life, nor or they manufacturing anything. Gold investors have no objective other than to profit financially from their purchase.

The advent of Exchange Traded Funds backed by gold has enabled Investors to access gold markets easily and quickly. Over time, this ease of access to gold has shifted the patterns of gold ownership. At first, investment funds just added another dimension of demand for gold to the marketplace, but recently, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have caused gold backed investment funds to become the main source of global gold demand. Suddenly jewelry purchases have plummeted; imports of gold by India and China, the largest buyers of jewelry in the world, have fallen dramatically this year. Central banks have actually reduced their rate of gold buying in 2020 from 2019 levels. But the amount of gold put into bank vaults on behalf of investment funds backed by gold has skyrocketed in the past several months.

In short, the share of gold purchases and of gold in storage controlled by investors is rising. As investors increasingly turn to gold in their investment accounts, the ups and downs of gold prices will likely become more dramatic and rapid, because investors with no reason to own gold other than for profit now control a larger share of the gold market.

It has become easier than ever for investors to buy gold due to the rising popularity of gold backed Exchange Traded Funds. Conversely, it is also easier to sell gold than ever before. When gold falls out of favor as an investment vehicle, for whatever reason, the ability of investors to trade gold backed investment funds on the sell side will make downward changes in the price of gold happen far more quickly than ever before. Downside price moves in gold could become as rapid and dramatic as downside corrections tend to be in the stock market. Current holders and new buyers of gold alike should be prepared not just for higher prices, but for higher price volatility in gold markets as well.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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