Economy

Green Shoots On the Economy Are Emerging Everywhere. That’s A Worry, Strategist Says. – Barron's

Published

4 years ago

June 10, 2020

Harry Miller

Customers wait outside the Simons store on Sainte-Catherine Street in Montréal, Canada, on May 25, 2020.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Economic data, not just in the U.S. but across the world, are showing signs of improvement. That is what’s worrying one strategist.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, identified the “green shoots” that are sprouting up in the global economy.

First, of course, is the U.S. jobs data, which showed 2.5 million nonfarm jobs added in May and a fall in the unemployment rate.

That is not the only bit of good news from the world’s largest economy. Automobile sales also are on the rise. “The rebound has been powerful enough that U.S. auto makers are even planning to keep factories open and working through their normal annual summer shutdown,” said Hooper.

North of the border, Canada added 290,000 jobs and its hours worked rose over 6%.

In Europe, purchasing managers indexes for both services and manufacturing sectors improved, as they have in China. One laggard, she noted, was Asian manufacturing, which she attributes to Western economies that are behind Asia in terms of recovering now buying fewer manufactured goods from Asia.

All this good news, though, has Hooper worried. Canada’s Emergency Response Benefit is due to lapse after July, and the loans from the Paycheck Protection Program are due to last eight weeks.

Further, government jobs in the U.S. dropped sharply, a sign of retrenchment by state and local governments. “Thus far, most major economies have been agile and generous in their fiscal stimulus; that needs to continue or else green shoots could quickly wilt and die,” she says.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

Published

3 days ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

Published

4 days ago

October 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

Published

4 days ago

October 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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