Grey-Bruce so far unaffected by COVID's summer wave, MOH says – The Post

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Some infectious diseases experts are calling an uptick in virus transmission indicators a “summer wave” but in Grey-Bruce the waters remain calm.

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Specialists now often use wastewater data to identify transmission trends in Ontario as testing for COVID-19, while consistent among those eligible, is no longer done widely enough to paint a detailed picture.

Wastewater data in Ontario is imperfect. People living in rural areas often don’t feed into the dataset. However, numbers show a clear increase in the month of June throughout the areas tested.

The results may not be surprising given the current context. Mobility data from the Ontario Science Table shows Ontarians are headed to their workplaces, retail shops, recreational outings and using public transportation at a rate almost double than at many points over the past two years. Meanwhile, COVID-19 prevention measures such as mask mandates and capacity restrictions are no longer in effect in most settings.

In Grey-Bruce, however, the increased mobility and lack of widespread preventative measures protecting against the transmission of COVID-19 has yet to present itself in rising data indicators.

Dr. Ian Arra, Grey-Bruce’s medical officer of health, said none of case counts, hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions are trending up in the region.

There were no confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks at any long-term care, retirement homes or hospitals in the region – although two outbreaks are suspected.

There has not been a premature death resulting from an outbreak in several months in Grey-Bruce, Arra said.

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“We haven’t seen it here yet – if it’s going to happen,” Arra said of the reported summer wave. “I don’t believe this is going to be a changing trend.”

In Grey-Bruce, just under 75 per cent of the region’s population is vaccinated with two doses. The figure is one of the lowest in the province. Over 50 per cent of the region’s population has received three doses of the COVID-19 vaccines, which is near the middle of the pack in Ontario.

According to data from the Ontario Science Table dashboard, which shows cases and hospitalizations per 1 million people per day, those who remain unvaccinated are estimated to be almost twice as likely to test positive for the virus, over five times more likely to be in hospital with COVID-19 and four times as likely to be admitted to the ICU.

Arra said there are several factors for those who choose to remain unvaccinated. He cited personal and individual belief systems and the relative or perceived safety of those in Grey-Bruce.

“People in other parts of the province have seen deaths in the tens in long-term care outbreaks,” Arra said. “People who are on the fence might feel that there is no added benefit, obviously there is an added benefit . . . the data is very clear about the protection.”

He said the difference in vaccine uptake among health units is not statistically significant.

“It’s trivial,” he said. “It’s not going to change the outcome on the ground.”

He also said the Omicron variant is so transmissible it’s likely a large percentage of the population has some immunity either through vaccinations or previous infection.

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Arra said it’s likely there will be another uptick in COVID-19 cases and transmission in the fall, as typical with viruses.

Recently, federal health minister Jean-Yves Duclos said booster shots may be necessary every nine months to stay up to date and effectively immunized.

Currently, in Ontario, only those who are 60 and over, residents of First Nation, Inuit and Metis communities aged 18 and over, those who live in long-term care homes, retirement homes and congregate settings and some immunocompromised people are eligible for the next round of boosters.

Arra said he didn’t think repeated COVID-19 booster shots in perpetuity will be required. He said there are currently two schools of thought among experts, and he believes the COVID-19 virus will eventually mutate to a point where its effect on the population is no longer severe enough to necessitate vaccines for protection.

“Hopefully in the near future, not in many years, this is going to be the case,” he said.