United States President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump’s first debate of the 2024 campaign has refocused attention on their respective economic records in office.
During Thursday’s head-to-head, the candidates clashed on the economy, with Biden taking credit for overseeing the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump claiming to have presided over “the greatest economy in the history of our country”.
Both Biden and Trump could point to strong performances in particular areas of the economy, but opinion polls have consistently shown that voters have more trust in the Republican’s ability to handle economic and cost-of-living issues.
In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released last month, 46 percent of respondents said they trusted Trump on the economy, compared with 32 percent for Biden.
On inflation, Trump was favoured over the Democrat by 44 to 30 percent.
Polls also show that Americans overwhelmingly view the economy as their top priority, meaning that Biden’s re-election hopes are likely to live or die depending on his ability to sell a positive economic message.
Here are Trump and Biden’s economic records compared in four key areas.
Economic growth
Both the Biden and Trump administrations oversaw periods of robust growth.
Since Biden’s inauguration, gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by 8.4 percent when adjusted for inflation.
Under Trump, GDP grew 6.8 percent – but that includes the plunge in economic activity that occurred during the first year of the pandemic.
Excluding 2020, Biden comes out slightly ahead, with an annualised growth rate of about 2.9 percent, compared with just under 2.7 percent for Trump.
Inflation
Biden’s tenure has been marked by far higher inflation compared with Trump’s – although many of the factors driving high prices, such as COVID-related supply chain disruptions, were out of his control.
Since Biden came to office, prices have risen more than 19 percent.
The average price of a gallon (3.8 litres) of petrol rose from $2.33 to $3.76 between January 2021 and May of this year, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The cost of a loaf of bread increased from $1.55 to $1.97, while the price of a dozen eggs jumped from $1.47 to $2.70
At a similar point in Trump’s presidency, prices had only risen about 5 percent.
While inflation has come down sharply since peaking at 9.1 percent in mid-2022, it remains stubbornly high.
The consumer price index last month stood at 3.3 percent, well above the US Federal Reserve’s target of about 2 percent.
Jobs
Biden and Trump can both claim to have presided over strong labour markets.
Unemployment fell to a 53-year low of 3.4 percent in January last year and has stayed below 4 percent for all but one month since then.
Excluding 2020, Trump also oversaw a period of low unemployment, with the jobless rate hitting a low of 3.5 percent in late 2019.
Under Biden, the economy has added about 15.7 million jobs.
By contrast, Trump left office with some three million fewer jobs – although that figure was skewed by the pandemic.
However, even before the pandemic, job creation grew at a slower pace during Trump’s administration than it has under Biden.
Wages
While Biden and Trump both presided over solid wage growth on paper, US workers have seen their earnings decline in real terms under Biden due to inflation.
Under Trump, wage growth stayed above inflation, delivering modest rises in workers’ incomes.
From March 2021, consumer prices began to diverge from earnings, before the trend started to reverse in early 2023.
The upshot is that real median weekly wages fell by 2.14 percent between the start of Biden’s term and the first quarter of 2024, according to a FactCheck.org analysis citing US Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
The positive news for US workers is that wages have started growing again.
In May, real wages rose 0.5 percent compared with the previous year, although they have yet to recover to their levels at the start of Biden’s tenure.
“While real wage growth has turned slightly positive in recent months, the level of real wages is still below where they were at the onset of the inflation surge that we began to see in the first quarter of 2021,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said in an analysis on Thursday.
“Simply put, real wages haven’t fully caught up to the sudden burst in inflation.”
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
