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Have Canadian real estate prices bottomed out? This economist thinks so

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Prices in major real estate markets across Canada appear to have bottomed out last month as affordability issues persist, according to a report from RBC Economics.

Robert Hogue, an assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, said in a report Friday that spring was appearing to be a low point for estate markets across the country, but data from last month “pretty much sealed the deal.”

“Early results from real estate boards gave strong indications local markets turned a corner last month. In most cases, activity ramped up significantly (from depressed levels in March) and prices ticked higher,” Hogue said in the report.

Price gains were the sharpest in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, followed by Montreal, he said.

Affordability will continue to be a significant issue, Hogue said, which will initially hinder a recovery.

Going forward, Hogue said two major factors will impact the market.

On the supply side, historically low inventory levels could be driven slightly higher as new units hit the market from sellers previously discouraged by a down market.

On the demand side, Hogue said “the end of price corrections” could incentivize homebuyers attempting to time the market.

“Both factors would sustain or even extend April’s gains,” he said.

TORONTO

Canada’s largest housing market gained momentum in April as seasonally adjusted resales increased by 27 per cent from the previous month, according to Hogue.

“Demand-supply conditions tightened for a fifth-straight month and now look as firm as they were before the market’s downturn,” he said, adding this spurred a recovery in prices.

Looking ahead, Hogue said market conditions will be largely dictated by sellers and the effect their return to the market would have on inventories.

“Our view is that a growing number of them [sellers] will indeed list their home for sale now that property values have turned a corner. And this should keep any price appreciation relatively contained,” he said.

MONTREAL 

Last month, Hogue said Montreal’s real estate market was brought out of a “deep slumber” by warmer weather and a pause in interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada.

In April, resales rose 12 per cent from the previous month, according to Hogue.

“Spring—but more so the growing perception the market is bottoming—also reinvigorated sellers but the energy was more subdued on that side of the equation,” he said.

“Resulting fiercer competition for each property available contributed to end the year-long price slide.”

In the near future, Hogue said tight supply and demand conditions are likely to drive prices slightly higher.

VANCOUVER 

Real estate transactions in Vancouver were marked by higher activity last month, Hogue said, as buyers re-entered the market likely believing that “the correction has run its course.”

Outsized increases to the demand side of the market brought prices higher, according to Hogue.

“Tighter demand-supply conditions will likely keep prices on an upward trajectory in the period ahead,” he said.

“But we continue to believe that extremely poor affordability will significantly limit the speed at which they will rise.”

CALGARY 

Seasonally adjusted resales in Calgary’s housing market rebounded by 28 per cent in April compared to the previous month, Hogue said.

April’s increase in resales marked the end of a downturn in the Calgary housing market, “if there ever really was one,” Hogue said. Additionally, he said prices were slightly higher during that time period.

“The thing is that the [Calgary] market remained impressively robust over the past year despite the sharp drop in activity,” Hogue said.

Going forward he said prices are likely to increase. This is because following three months of tightening conditions, it is now a seller’s market.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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