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Here’s how Canada stacks up against other countries when it comes to high inflation

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OTTAWA — Decades-high inflation has Canadians worried about the rising cost of living, but as gloomy as things may seem, Canada appears to be faring better than many other major economies.

Its national inflation rate is still lower than that of the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom — whose year-over-year inflation rose to an eye-popping 11.1 per cent in October.

Price pressures have begun to ease in Canada, with gas prices falling from record highs and annual inflation holding steady at 6.9 per cent in October despite a rebound at the pump.

Still, despite glimmers of hope that the worst is behind Canadians, many have seen their purchasing power eroded as wage growth trails inflation.

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Inflation in Canada reached the highest levels since 1981 in the summer, with rates creeping steadily higher since the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. Prices were up 8.1 per cent in June compared to a year earlier.

And even as federal Liberals respond to the political challenge of inflation by announcing additional supports for Canadians, opposition politicians seized on the issue as an opportunity to argue that the government is failing on domestic cost-of-living issues.

But Canada has a lot of company in the fight against high inflation.

A slew of global challenges, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to snarled supply chains, have rapidly pushed prices up around the world.

Pandemic support programs and low interest rates also made it easier for people to spend money as countries reopened, adding demand to economies that were already struggling to supply goods and services.

Now, as central banks act in unison to quash inflation, Canada’s extraordinarily high inflation rate is still lower than that of key allies.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter says it’s tricky to draw comparisons between countries because of differences in how inflation is calculated.

However, it’s fair to say that Canada is in relatively better shape, he said in an interview.

“Even with that mild warning label, I still think the overriding story does hold that Canada does generally have lower inflation than most major economies,” Porter said.

The economist noted that Switzerland, Japan and China are the main outliers to that trend, holding inflation in the range of two to three per cent.

And as in Canada, inflation in the U.S. appears to be slowing. The latest inflation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the inflation rate slowed to 7.7 per cent in October, a positive surprise for forecasters.

Porter attributes more-intense inflation pressures south of the border to the U.S. economy re-opening earlier in the pandemic and its federal government doling out more aggressive fiscal stimulus in response to COVID-19.

On the other side of the Atlantic, a dependence on Russian energy has led to even higher pressures.

The U.K., which is suffering its highest level of inflation in 41 years, is not alone in seeing double-digit rates. The European Union saw prices in October up 10.6 per cent from the year before.

After Europe slapped Russia with economic sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, the country cut off its supply of natural gas to Europe, raising fears about the cost of living ahead of the winter months.

“That’s the primary reason why Europe’s inflation rate is so much higher than it is here in North America,” Porter said.

Central banks globally are moving to clamp down on high inflation with interest rate hikes designed to slow economic growth.

And although the Bank of Canada has been criticized for waiting too long to raise interest rates, Porter says it has moved faster and more aggressively than other central banks.

“I think the Bank of Canada got it earlier than other central banks did. And that’s one of the reasons why our inflation rate is a bit lower,” he said.

Since March, Canada’s central bank has raised its key interest rate six consecutive times, marking one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles in its history. Its key interest rate rose from 0.25 per cent to 3.75 per cent, and governor Tiff Macklem has warned that Canadians should expect interest rates to rise even further.

The U.S. Federal Reserve also began raising interest rates in March at a similar pace, with the top end of its range now at four per cent.

The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point at its last decision meeting, but its key rate still lags at three per cent.

The European Central Bank has been the slowest, raising its key rate last month to 1.5 per cent.

Porter said swifter action on the part of the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve mean inflation might come down in North America faster than in other regions.

But he cautioned that the road ahead won’t be easy.

“I think we all have to brace ourselves for a bit more of a prolonged fight to get inflation under control.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 19, 2022.

 

Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press

Economy

China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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