Brian Kelcey is a Toronto-based urban policy consultant. He previously served as budget advisor to the Mayor of Winnipeg, and as a senior political advisor at Queen’s Park.
As chair of Winnipeg city council’s finance committee, Scott Gillingham is now one of hundreds of municipal leaders across Canada grappling with plunging revenues and rising emergency costs associated with the COVID-19 shutdown. “If you were waiting for something worse to come along, well, this is it,” he says.
While American mayors can access hundreds of billions in federal grants and central bank loans, Canadian city leaders are coping with the same challenges, but without any promise of comparable federal aid so far. No choice is easy: laying off a cashier or a city planner saves money in the future, but it also forces a drain on reserves to pay severance in the present. Cancelling public works projects may seem prudent, but local construction firms are depending on that work to stay alive through any eventual recovery.
Last week, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities called on the federal government to offer billions in emergency transit subsidies and increased gas tax transfers. Others have proposed Bank of Canada interventions, or conversion of federal infrastructure subsidies into a share of GST revenues to move cash to cities more quickly. At the provincial level, British Columbia is allowing local governments to hold on to education property tax revenues that they would normally remit to the province as a short-term cushion.
Here’s a sample from west to east of how local officials are navigating the early days of the biggest financial crisis anyone in municipal government has ever seen.
Translink (Metro Vancouver’s transit and transportation agency)
Serving: 2.6 million people across the Vancouver Metro Area
Burn rate: Translink had already lost $75 million from plunging fare and gas tax revenues by mid-April. Even after implementing a wave of announced service cuts, Translink still expects a burn rate in the tens of millions once those measures are complete.
Translink is one of Canada’s largest transit agencies, but as of this moment in the COVID-19 crisis, it’s shrinking. By the end of the month, Vancouver transit riders can expect to lose as much as 40 per cent of service capacity, including fifty-six bus routes and cuts to rapid transit service. Over 1,500 layoffs were announced on April 20.
“Transit systems don’t turn on and off like a light switch,” says New Westminster Mayor Jonathan Coté, the chair of Translink’s mayor’s council. He told Maclean’s that he and his colleagues are concerned about the future consequences of the service cuts they’re being forced to make today. “The significant cuts we are making to transit service aren’t just going to impact us during the health crisis,” he says, “but they will also hinder us during the recovery phase.”
Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi: Calgary is facing “a perfect storm” from COVID-19 (Jeff McIntosh/CP)
City of Calgary
Population: 1.5 million
Burn rate: $15 million a week
“The good news is that Calgary is exceptionally well run,” says Mayor Naheed Nenshi in a plug for Calgary’s success in building up emergency reserves. But the third-term mayor wasn’t pulling any punches about the scale of the bad news: Calgary is facing a “perfect storm” with the pandemic, the economic shutdown and the ongoing oil price shock all damaging local revenues and expenditures. Calgary City Hall has already laid off 10 per cent of its workforce and suspended seasonal hiring.
Since Alberta’s economy was already facing tough times before the pandemic, Nenshi is more focused than other mayors on the potential risks for business property tax revenues. “If that business goes bankrupt, who’s paying that tax?” he asks, floating the real possibility of a chain reaction if several business failures outpaced various landlords’ resources. “Our estimated loss [of between $400-$450 million] through to September assumes everyone can pay their taxes,” he says, an assumption he himself acknowledges may be tested given the City’s desire to be flexible with tax collections. “We know from research and experience that when a disaster shuts down businesses, 30 to 40 per cent of them never reopen,” he said. “After the 2013 flood, we got that down to five per cent,” but with the combination of economic pressures, Nenshi believes it will be tough to get similar results this time.
City of Selkirk, Man.
Population: 10,000
Burn Rate: illnesses and self-isolation have prevented the City’s tiny finance team from calculating a projection yet, “but day-by-day this pushes our consolidated operations towards the red,” says City CAO Duane Nicol.
“It’s a tighter community,” he says. ”We know the names of the people losing their jobs or who own businesses struggling to make rent or payroll… For our staff and Council, the economic impacts are not just numbers on a briefing report, it’s the quivering voice we hear on the phone as people ask about their water bills. It’s personal for us.”
Nicol has a list of mounting worries to consider, including lost user fee revenue for arenas and halls, a 50 per cent drop in transit use and an “almost complete collapse” of accessible transit use. Despite residents rallying around local businesses, the city is uncertain who will be ready to pay when business property tax deferrals run out. While Nicol believes the city’s reserve policies are generally conservative, he notes that Selkirk was already paying for three major capital projects this year. “For the first time in decades, the city has had to establish a line of credit to ensure we have the liquidity to fund operations,” he says.
Burn rate: $20 million per month to date, with projections of $90 million in cumulative six-month losses once ongoing savings measures fully kick in.
Mississauga has a reputation for modern city services, but efficient management hasn’t been enough to protect Ontario’s third largest city from an economic shutdown that leaves Canada’s second-largest employment centre — the area surrounding Lester B. Pearson Airport — operating at a tiny fraction of its capacity.
With a wide range of community services available before the pandemic, the city is now losing $5 million a month from lost recreation fees alone, over and above $7 million per month in transit fare losses. Mayor Bonnie Crombie adds to that list with “lost investment income, fine collection and interest on deferred tax… we have no way of recovering those lost revenues, which is why we need the provincial and federal governments to step in and assist cities during this unprecedented crisis,” she says. Crombie pointedly notes that “we are the only level of government that has laid people off.” Mississauga has let go of 2,000 staff so far.
City of Montreal (Pixabay.com / Snowmen)
City de Montreal
Population: 4.2 million
Burn Rate: None confirmed
On April 23, Mayor Valérie Plante tweeted a French colloquialism — “les reins assez solides,” or Montreal “has strong kidneys” — by way of affirming her belief that the City is in relatively good shape to ride out the crisis. Recent budget surpluses have left Montreal’s reserves in excellent shape. However, Plante has insisted that in the medium term, Montreal will need federal and provincial aid just as surely as other cities, and to prove it, she also announced targets for cuts to Montreal’s central budget of almost $86 million. She also bluntly challenged Montreal’s nineteen borough governments to begin spending cuts to bring the total savings up to $124 million.
Iqaluit, Nunavut
Population: 7,700
Burn Rate: Increased expenses of $90,000 — entirely offset by a grant from the Government of Nunavut for now — and $500,000 in lost revenue since March 15.
In Canada’s northernmost and most isolated city, public sector jobs and regional Inuit associations have kept employment relatively stable. The community has yet to identify a single COVID-19 case. But Mayor Kenny Bell argues that Iqaluit relies “heavily on tourism, construction and transportation industries for services and essential supplies. If these industries experience significant downturns, there will be a detrimental effect to our local economy and the well-being our community, region and territory.”
Lost commercial landfill tipping fees, ice tournament rental fees and Aquatic Centre fees are all high on City’s list of red flags for revenue. While City CAO Amy Elgersma has managed to avoid layoffs so far through aggressive redeployment of staff into community support roles, her team is also reviewing the City’s capital program for potential cuts if they prove necessary.
Burn Rate: Halifax projects that in the absence of new revenue, it will run out of cash in approximately four months.
In a presentation to city council last week, city chief financial office Jane Fraser confirmed that tax deferrals were effectively pushing out almost $200 million in revenue that the City would normally be relying on to manage its cash pressures. Halifax is also one of the few Canadian cities to publicly confirm its losses from parking fees, at almost half a million dollars a month. Even as councillors reviewed the damage, they also voted to make the pressure more difficult, agreeing to plan for millions more in projected revenue losses to cut down late fees and further extend deadlines for beleaguered property taxpayers. Among Halifax’s other emergency steps already taken: a request for a provincial line of credit to maintain services.
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly identified the mayor of Iqaluit as Kelly Bell instead of Kenny Bell
TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?
It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.
Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.
And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.
Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.
Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.
Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.
“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.
Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.
“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.
“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”
Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.
“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.
“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”
Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.
In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.
“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.
Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.
“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.
Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.
Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.
“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.
“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”
Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.
A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.
“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.
Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.
“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.
“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.
Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.
Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.
Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.
Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.
“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”
The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.
Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.
“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.
Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.
The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.
Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.
But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.
Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.
“It’s literally incredible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.
The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.
It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.
CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.
The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.
Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
