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Here’s how the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike to 5 per cent will impact Canadian households

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The Bank of Canada has just hiked its interest rate by another 25 points to five per cent — the second quarter-point hike since June’s interest rate increase to 4.75 per cent. The central bank has been steadily increasing interest rates over the past three years in an effort to tame inflation.

While inflation is finally levelling out — June’s inflation rate was 3.4 per cent, the lowest since it peaked at 8.1 per cent in June 2022 — it still remains higher than the central bank’s two per cent target.

One of the reasons prices are now falling is because the economic impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine has been fading over the past few months. Downward trends in the price of raw materials and industrial prices are also playing a role.

The Canadian economy grew at 3.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, fuelled by strong growth in household spending on services. Healthy economic growth goes hand-in-hand with job creation, leading to tighter labour markets where job openings are plentiful but available workers are scarce.

The labour market has remained tight despite the unemployment rate increasing by two points to 5.4 in June. However, the unemployment rate is still below the pre-pandemic average of 5.7 per cent.

Mortgage owners beware

For businesses and households, the latest interest rate increase means an increase to the prime rate, which is the interest rate banks charge their customers with. The current prime rate is 6.95 per cent, up from 3.70 per cent in June 2022.

Homeowners with variable mortgage rates and terms about to expire will feel the most pain from the rate hike. At higher interest rates, borrowers need to allocate a larger share of their disposable income to debt, leaving less for spending on food and other household necessities.

While the mortgage interest rates have been a significant contributor to the rise in the cost of living, grocery prices have remained high, rising by nine per cent year-over-year this past May.

The Bank of Canada in Ottawa.
The Bank of Canada in Ottawa. Photo by SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES

Fortunately, price growth has slowed for some categories, such as durable goods which includes automobiles and furniture. And the price of cellular services has decreased by 8.2 per cent over the past year.

On a more positive note, Canadian households, and the housing market, have remained resilient despite some fluctuations over the past year.

According to a recent Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) report, the number of mortgages in arrears has remained low despite more households being worried about making mortgage payments on time. The relatively low number of mortgages in arrears is reflective of the financial stability and resiliency of Canadian households.

Coping with higher mortgage rates

One way Canadians have been coping with higher mortgage rates is with choosing shorter-term fixed-rate mortgages. Fixed-rate terms between one and five years have become the preferred choice, reflecting borrower expectations that the interest rates will fall within the next few years.

In fact, less than 15 per cent of new mortgages are locked in for fixed-rate five year terms, and less than 20 per cent are variable rate. Prior to August 2022, fixed-rate terms of five years or longer were the preferred choice for mortgage borrowers.
Another way households are coping with higher interest rates is by increasing amortization periods — the length of time people have to pay back a loan — to reduce monthly debt servicing costs. Extending amortization periods can prevent homeowners from missing mortage payments.

Over the past year, amortization periods greater than 25 years have become increasingly common. In the fourth quarter of 2022, for example, 60 per cent of mortgages were amortized over more than 25 years, compared to 50 per cent three years prior.

With the interest rate hike, this trend is expected to continue as households facing higher mortgage payments look for ways to reduce their monthly expenditures. When the interest rates fall, the trend is expected to reverse.

Credit and loans

Those with secured or unsecured lines of credit will also be impacted by the rate increase, since the interest rates for those products are directly related to the prime rate.

Finder, a financial comparison website, reports an average interest rate of 6.37 per cent for secured personal line of credit and 9.83 per cent for unsecured line of credit, with precise rates varying with credit scores and personal characteristics.

Credit card interest rates that average close to 19.99 per cent are not typically affected by changes in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.

Those taking out a new automobile loan will also face higher interest rates. Most automobile loans are fixed rate, so those in need of refinancing or renegotiating their loans are likely to be impacted.

Smoother roads ahead?

While the downward trend in inflation suggests the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes may be soon coming to an end, we can expect the current interest rate to remain constant at least for the rest of the year.

The next inflation update will be announced on July 18.

At this point, it appears that the Canadian economy has picked up enough momentum this year to dodge a recession. We can expect both inflation and interest rates to soften in 2024.

 

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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