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Here’s what experts believe July’s inflation data means for interest rates

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Despite a subtle jump in inflation for the month of July, economists are expecting the Bank of Canada to pause interest rate hikes in September, at least temporarily.

On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.3 per cent for July, largely due to increased gas prices.

The inflation data marks a jump from June’s rate of 2.8 per cent, but experts say the hike was expected.

“We thought that inflation would come in a little bit higher, and this is because of the base effects. You’re dropping off some really low numbers in the back half of last year that is going to make inflation look like it’s accelerating, but in reality it’s not,” Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist with IG Wealth Management, told BNN Bloomberg on Tuesday.

In July, the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates to five per cent in its bid to tame inflation back down to its target of two per cent.

Petersson argued that a good portion of inflation figures are elevated because of the heightened interest rates themselves. For him, Tuesday’s inflation data show the Bank of Canada should hold firm at its next interest rate announcement on Sept. 6.

“I think the Bank of Canada should pause,” he said. “If the Bank of Canada realizes that some of the biggest components to inflation is what they’re doing to interest rates then they should no longer be raising rates.”

Douglas Porter, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, estimates about a 30 per cent chance the Bank of Canada raising rates next month.

“I probably came in today thinking there was very little chance the Bank of Canada was going to raise interest rates in September, and the main thing I would point to is we’ve seen three months in a row where the unemployment rate has risen,” he said in a television interview.

Porter said the full second quarter GDP numbers, which come out on Sept. 1, might be “the deciding point” for the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision.

“At this stage, I would still lean with the view that the bank’s probably going to move to the sidelines,” he said.

Tiago Figueiredo, an economist with Desjardins, believes Tuesday’s inflation figures should prompt the Bank of Canada to pause rates hikes for now, in part because the bank’s timeline for reaching its inflation target is still far in the future.

“Today’s report might nudge the balance of risks slightly to the upside as far as the odds of a September rate hike are concerned,” Figueiredo wrote in a note.

“However, weaker signs in GDP and jobs data recently will also factor into the analysis. Barring any major surprise in the upcoming activity data, we expect the Bank of Canada to stay sidelined on Sept. 6.”

Jay Zhao-Murray, an FX analyst at Monex Canada, said the July inflation data “will be a source of headaches all around the governing council” but likely mean a pause in rate hikes, at least for September.

“The report probably wasn’t hot enough to cause an immediate restart of policy tightening, but it definitely wasn’t cool enough to confirm that price growth is back under control,” he said in a written statement.

Still, Zhao-Murray said the data could have policymakers considering further measures if inflation remains sticky.

With files from The Canadian Press

 

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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