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Here's what kind of return you can expect from stock markets going forward – Financial Post

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Toronto Stock Exchange


Recent stock market volatility has put a spotlight on daily market movements for people who would not normally pay such close attention to their portfolio. Setting appropriate expectations about investment returns is important for investors and advisors. These expectations depend on several factors and impact investment and financial planning decisions.

Interest, dividends and capital gains

Most people in the investment industry use treasury bills or government bonds as a proxy for a risk-free rate of return. However, most average investors would consider a Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) to be a more appropriate benchmark.

GIC rates are currently in the 2.5 per cent range for one-to-five-year terms. This is unusual, as longer-term GICs usually pay higher interest rates than shorter-term ones. The yield curve is currently “flat.” In order to secure rates of 2.5 per cent, you need to look past the banks to trust companies and credit unions, as the banks are only paying between 1.5 and two per cent.

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The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index is a good benchmark for mid-term Canadian investment grade bonds, including government and high-quality corporate bonds. The current yield to maturity (interest rate) is only 1.5 per cent.

The distribution yield (dividend rate) for the S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index is currently 3.6 per cent, and for the S&P 500, it is 2.4 per cent. These yields assume the underlying companies continue to pay the same dividends in the next year as they did in the past year, which may be questionable given the current state of the economy.

Higher yielding bonds are available for investors willing to take on more risk. Higher yielding stocks with larger dividends are available as well, albeit potentially at the expense of potential capital growth otherwise reserved for companies that may pay lower or no dividends.

Stock market investors expect to earn a return by way of capital appreciation or an increase in the underlying price of stocks. Stock markets generally rise over time, although that rise is not in a straight line, as we have seen underscored in 2020.

Historical returns

Stocks rise in value about three out of every four years. They typically do not fall in value in consecutive years as recessions tend to be short lived. Over the past 100 years, the S&P 500 has only had four multi-year declines, including four straight years at the outset of the Great Depression, three straight years at the start of the First World War, two years in a row during the 1973 oil crisis, and three consecutive years following the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000.

A balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds has not had a negative five-year return since 1935. As a result, a balanced investor with a time horizon of more than five years can probably expect to have a higher portfolio value than now by that time.

Over the past 50 years, the TSX has returned 9.1 per cent annually. The S&P 500 has returned 11.0 per cent in Canadian dollar terms. Canadian inflation over the past 50 years has been 3.9 per cent, so this means part of those returns are reflective of higher annual cost of living increases in the past than we are used to today. The Bank of Canada and most central banks have a two per cent inflation target.


A Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) ticker is seen in the financial district of Toronto.

Cole Burston/Bloomberg files

Over the past 20 years, going back to the peaks of the 2000 dot-com bubble, Canadian stocks have only returned 6.3 per cent, and U.S. stocks, in Canadian dollars, only 5.4 per cent.

Historical bond returns are somewhat skewed because interest rates were so much higher in the past. Canadian three-month treasury bills — the aforementioned proxy for a Canadian risk-free rate — returned 5.6 per cent over the past 50 years, but just 2.0 per cent over the past 20 years. Given the three-month treasury bill yield is currently 0.27 per cent, this reinforces why some aspects of investment history can result in deceiving expectations for the future.

Expected returns

FP Canada is the professional body for Certified Financial Planners (CFPs) in Canada. Their 2020 Projection Assumption Guidelines found the average long-term return assumptions from 11 actuarial and asset management firms for bonds was 3.15 per cent. Canadian stocks, foreign developed market stocks (like the U.S.), and emerging market stocks (most notably China) were forecast at 6.05 per cent, 6.25 per cent, and 8.02 per cent respectively.

The most recent triennial Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan from Dec. 31, 2018 included government estimates for stock market returns. They anticipated a “real” rate of return for public equities of 3.9 per cent until 2025 due to low cash returns. By 2025, their forecast was 4.3 per cent. In a two per cent inflation environment, these real returns suggest a nominal 5.9 to 6.3 per cent per year overall for stocks, with higher return potential identified for emerging markets and private equities.

There are other methods to try to forecast future stock market returns, perhaps most notably from Yale economist and Nobel Prize winner, Robert Shiller. The Shiller P/E, or cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, is a statistical method used to imply future stock market returns. It is determined by dividing the price of a stock or a stock market, like the S&P 500, by the average of the previous 10 years of inflation-adjusted corporate earnings.

A lower CAPE suggests that stock prices are cheap relative to historical earnings. A high CAPE — as we have right now in the U.S. — implies stocks are overvalued and future return expectations are low.

The Shiller P/E ratio has its criticisms, some of which suggest today’s CAPE cannot be compared to historical ratios due to low interest rates, different business and regulatory conditions, and changes in accounting methods.

Investment and financial planning

So, what does all this mean for investors and advisors? One takeaway should be that future stock market returns could be lower than they have been in the past. This prognostication has nothing to do with the pandemic or trying to make a call on what stocks will do for the balance of 2020. It has more to do with the fact that today’s low interest rates and inflation suggest future returns must be lower.

Long-term stock market returns of six to seven per cent are probably reasonable for most public stock market investors, and potentially seven to eight per cent for private equities and public emerging markets.

Most investors will not earn six to eight per cent simply because of fees and fixed-income exposure. Investors cannot invest for free, cannot consistently beat the market net of fees, and few investors are exclusively invested in stocks.

Advisors should be continuously monitoring an investor’s risk tolerance, using the pandemic volatility as a barometer for how much risk an investor is truly willing to take.

For purposes of retirement planning, long-term returns of three to six per cent as a range may be appropriate assuming a two per cent inflation rate, depending on asset allocation and fees, and contingent on whether a retirement plan includes a Monte Carlo simulation or stress testing.

Appropriate expectations about investment returns from year to year and over an investor’s lifetime can help improve short and long-term investment outcomes. Developing a financial plan based on those expectations can help set monthly saving and spending targets, evaluate insurance needs, determine tax and estate strategies, and keep an investor invested when the going gets tough.

Jason Heath is a fee-only, advice-only Certified Financial Planner (CFP) at Objective Financial Partners Inc. in Toronto, Ontario. He does not sell any financial products whatsoever.

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Gildan replacing five directors ahead of AGM, will back two Browning West nominees – Yahoo Canada Finance

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MONTREAL — Gildan Activewear Inc. is making changes to its board of directors in an attempt to head off a move by an activist shareholder looking to replace a majority of the board at its annual meeting next month.

U.S. investment firm Browning West wants to replace eight of Gildan’s 12 directors with its own nominees in a move to bring back founder Glenn Chamandy as chief executive.

Gildan, which announced late last year that Chamandy would be replaced by Vince Tyra, said Monday it will replace five members of its board of directors ahead of its annual meeting set for May 28.

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It also says current board members Luc Jobin and Chris Shackelton will not run for re-election and that it will recommend shareholders vote for Karen Stuckey and J.P. Towner, who are two of Browning West’s eight nominees.

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The new directors who will join the Gildan board on May 1 are Tim Hodgson, Lee Bird, Jane Craighead, Lynn Loewen and Les Viner. They will replace Donald Berg, Maryse Bertrand, Shirley Cunningham, Charles Herington and Craig Leavitt.

Hodgson, who served as chief executive of Goldman Sachs Canada from 2005 to 2010, is expected to replace Berg as chair.

“I look forward to working with this highly qualified board and management team to realize the full benefits of Vince’s ambitious yet realistic plan to drive growth by enhancing the Gildan sustainable growth strategy,” Hodgson said in a statement.

“The refreshed board and I fully believe in Vince and his talented team as well as Gildan’s leading market position and growth prospects.”

Gildan has been embroiled in controversy ever since it announced Chamandy was being replaced by Tyra.

The company has said Chamandy had no credible long-term strategy and had lost the board’s confidence. But several of Gildan’s investors have criticized the company for the move and called for his return.

Those investors include the company’s largest shareholder, Jarislowsky Fraser, as well as Browning West and Turtle Creek Asset Management.

In announcing the board changes, Gildan said it met with shareholders including those who Browning West has counted as supportive.

“Our slate strikes a balance between ensuring the board retains historical continuity during a period of transition and provides fresh perspectives to ensure it continues to serve its important oversight function on behalf of all shareholders,” the company said.

Gildan said last month that it has formed a special committee of independent directors to consider a “non-binding expression of interest” from an unnamed potential purchaser and contact other potential bidders.

But Browning West and Turtle Creek have said the current board cannot be trusted to oversee a sale of the company.

The company said Monday that there continues to be external interest in acquiring the company and the process is ongoing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 22, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GIL)

The Canadian Press

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Ottawa puts up $50M in federal budget to hedge against job-stealing AI – CP24

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Anja Karadeglija, The Canadian Press


Published Sunday, April 21, 2024 4:02PM EDT


Last Updated Sunday, April 21, 2024 4:04PM EDT

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Worried artificial intelligence is coming for your job? So is the federal government — enough, at least, to set aside $50 million for skills retraining for workers.

One of the centrepiece promises in the federal budget released Tuesday was $2.3 billion in investments aiming to boost adoption of the technology and the artificial intelligence industry in Canada.

But tucked alongside that was a promise to invest $50 million over four years “to support workers who may be impacted by AI.” Workers in “potentially disrupted sectors and communities” will receive new skills training through the Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.

“There is a significant transformation of the economy and society on the horizon around artificial intelligence,” said Joel Blit, an associate professor of economics at the University of Waterloo.

Some jobs will be lost, others will be created, “but there’s going to be a transition period that could be somewhat chaotic.”

While jokes about robots coming to take jobs predate the emergence of generative AI systems in late 2022, the widespread availability of systems like ChatGPT made those fears real for many, even as workers across industries began integrating the technology into their workday.

In June 2023, a briefing note for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland warned the impact of generative AI “will be felt across all industries and around 40 per cent of all working hours could be impacted.”

“Banking, insurance and energy appear to have higher potential for automation compared to other sectors,” says the note, obtained through access to information and citing information from Accenture.

“This could have substantial impacts on jobs and skills requirements.”

The budget only singles out “creative industries” as an affected sector that will be covered by the program. In February, the Canadian TV, film, and music industries asked MPs for protection against AI, saying the tech threatens their livelihood and reputations.

Finance Canada did not respond to questions asking what other sectors or types of jobs would be covered under the program.

“The creative industries was used as an illustrative example, and not intended as an exclusion of other affected areas,” deputy Finance spokesperson Caroline Thériault said in a statement.

In an interview earlier this year, Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, said unions representing actors and directors have been very worried about how their likenesses or their work could be used by AI systems. But the “reality is that we have to look at the implication of AI in all jobs,” she said.

Blit explained large language models and other generative AI can write, come up with new ideas and then test those ideas, analyze data, as well as generate computer programming code, music, images, and video.

Those set to be affected are individuals in white-collar professions, like people working in marketing, health care, law and accounting.

In the longer run, “it’s actually quite hard to predict who is going to be impacted,” he said. “What’s going to happen is that entire industries, entire processes are going to be reimagined around this new technology.”

AI is an issue “across sectors, but certainly clerical and customer service jobs are more vulnerable,” Hugh Pouliot, a spokesperson for the Canadian Union of Public Employees, said in an email.

The federal government has used AI in nearly 300 projects and initiatives, new research published earlier this month revealed.

According to Viet Vu, manager of economic research at Toronto Metropolitan University’s the Dais, the impact of AI on workers in a sector like the creative industry doesn’t have to be negative.

“That’s only the case if you adopt it irresponsibly,” he said, pointing out creative professionals have been adopting new digital tools in their work for years.

He noted only four per cent of Canadian businesses are using any kind of artificial intelligence or machine learning. “And so we’re really not there yet for these frontier models and frontier technologies” to be making an impact.

When it comes to the question of how AI will affect the labour market, it’s more useful to think about what types of tasks technology can do better, as opposed to whether it will replace entire jobs, Vu said.

“A job is composed of so many different tasks that sometimes even if a new technology comes along and 20, 30 per cent of your job can be done using AI, you still have that 60, 70 per cent left,” he said.

“So it’s rare that (an) entire occupation is actually sort of erased out of existence because of technology.”

Finance Canada also did not respond to questions about what new skills the workers would be learning.

Vu said there are two types of skills it makes sense to focus on in retraining — computational thinking, or understanding how computers operate and make decisions, and skills dealing with data.

There is no AI system in the world that does not use data, he said. “And so being able to actually understand how data is curated, how data is used, even some basic data analytics skills, will go a really long way.”

But given the scope of the change the AI technology is set to trigger, critics say a lot more than $50 million will be necessary.

Blit said the money is a good first step but won’t be “close to enough” when it comes to the scale of the coming transformation, which will be comparable to globalization or the adoption of computers.

Valerio De Stefano, Canada research chair in innovation law and society at York University, agreed more resources will be necessary.

“Jobs may be reduced to an extent that reskilling may be insufficient,” and the government should look at “forms of unconditional income support such as basic income,” he said.

The government should also consider demanding AI companies “contribute directly to pay for any social initiative that takes care of people who lose their jobs to technology” and asking “employers who reduce payrolls and increase profits thanks to AI to do the same.”

“Otherwise, society will end up subsidizing tech businesses and other companies as they increase profit without giving back enough for technology to benefit us all.”

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Honda to build electric vehicles and battery plant in Ontario, sources say – Global News

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Honda Canada is set to build an electric vehicle battery plant near its auto manufacturing facility in Alliston, Ont., where it also plans to produce fully electric vehicles, The Canadian Press has learned.

Senior sources with information on the project confirmed the federal and Ontario governments will make the announcement this week, but were not yet able to give any dollar figures.

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However, comments Monday from Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli suggest it is a project worth around $14 billion or $15 billion.

Ford told a First Nations conference that there will be an announcement this week about a new deal he said will be double the size of a Volkswagen deal announced last year. That EV battery plant set to be built in St. Thomas, Ont., comes with a $7-billion capital price tag.

Fedeli would not confirm if Ford was referencing Honda, but spoke coyly after question period Monday about the amount of electric vehicle investment in the province.

“We went from zero to $28 billion in three years and if the premier, if his comments are correct, then next week, we’ll be announcing $43 billion … in and around there,” he said.

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The Honda facility will be the third electric vehicle battery plant in Ontario, following in the footsteps of Volkswagen and a Stellantis LG plant in Windsor, and while those two deals involved billions of dollars in production subsidies as a way of competing with the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, Honda’s is expected to involve capital commitments and tax credits.


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Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s recent budget announced a 10-per-cent Electric Vehicle Supply Chain investment tax credit on the cost of buildings related to EV production as long as the business invests in assembly, battery production and cathode active material production in Canada.

That’s on top of an existing 30-per-cent Clean Technology Manufacturing investment tax credit on the cost of investments in new machinery and equipment.

Honda’s deal also involves two key parts suppliers for their batteries — cathodes and separators — with the locations of those facilities elsewhere in Ontario set to be announced at a later date.

The deal comes after years of meetings and discussions between Honda executives and the Ontario government, the sources said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Premier Doug Ford and Honda executives were on hand in March 2022 in Alliston when the Japanese automaker announced hybrid production at the facility, with $131.6 million in assistance from each of the two levels of government.

Around the time of that announcement, conversations began about a larger potential investment into electric vehicles, the sources said, and negotiations began that summer.

Fedeli travelled to Japan that fall, the first of three visits to meet with Honda Motor executives about the project. Senior officials from the company in Japan also travelled to Toronto three times to meet with government officials, including twice with Ford.

During a trip by the Honda executives to Toronto in March 2023, Ontario officials including Fedeli pitched the province as a prime destination for electric vehicle and battery investments, part of a strong push from the government to make Ford’s vision of an end-to-end electric vehicle supply chain in the province a reality.

Negotiations took a major step forward that July, when Ontario sent a formal letter to Honda Canada, signalling its willingness to offer incentives for a battery plant and EV production. Honda Canada executives then met with Ford in November and December.

The latter meeting sealed the deal, the sources said.

Honda approached the federal government a few months ago, a senior government official said, and Freeland led her government’s negotiations with the company.

The project is expected to involve the construction of several plants, according to the source.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa.

&copy 2024 The Canadian Press

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