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High interest rates takes some steam out of Windsor commercial real estate market in first half of 2023

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The volume of local commercial real estate deals and their value both declined in the first half of 2023 when compared to the first six months of 2022, but the Windsor area is still on track for its second-best year on record.

There were 33 deals of $2 million or more completed, down 46.8 per cent, with a total value of $247 million, a decline of 24.8 per cent.

“It’s obviously been a cautious first half of the year largely interest rate driven,” said CRBE Windsor associate president Brad Collins. “Not surprisingly we’re down from the highs of 2022.”

Collins said the market is splitting along the lines of higher and lower quality assets and classes. Higher quality assets are still performing relatively well. However, without the benefit of low interest rates, action involving lower quality assets has ‘become more difficult to transact.’

“The other division we see is between classes,” Collins said.

“Office space is not a large part of our market at the best of times, but those assets are facing challenges in terms of finding liquidity. You haven’t seen a pullback in industrial property.”

CRBE Windsor is forecasting year-end totals of 60 deals and $485 million, which would be second only to last year’s number of 112 deals and $727 million. That would represent an overall decline of 33 per cent.

The biggest deal of the first six months was the sale of LaSalle’s Town Centre Plaza, which is anchored by a FreshCo outlet, for $23.5 million.

The other two sales in excess of $20 million involved the former Lowe’s store turned RONA+ for $23 million and an apartment building at 8675 McHugh Street near the WFCU Centre for $21.4 million.

CRBE Windsor senior vice president Brook Handysides sees a continuation of caution in the market until there’s a clearer direction on the future of interest rate policy.

“The biggest factor driving the investment market is always interest rates,” Handysides said. “The rate of return is adjusted by the cost of financing.

“The impact on the volume of transactions is a pullback to 2021 levels.”

However, Handysides said he expects the Windsor commercial real estate market to ride out higher interest rates comfortably. Handysides pointed out London and the GTA are experiencing a much more noticeable slowdown currently and more volatility in land prices.

Handysides added local retail and land purchases for future residential and industrial development performed solidly in the first half of the year and accounted for 60 per cent of all transactions. Industrial properties accounted for just under 18 per cent of deals, but demand is outstripping supply and limiting the number of transactions.

“Regardless of the headwinds we’ve faced, there are such strong economic tailwinds for Windsor we see our region outperforming other markets across Canada,” Handysides said.

Collins said the portion of the market that is toughest to figure going forward is office space. Like other communities, the changing nature of work and whether it’s fully back to the office, hybrid or from home, is still not settled.

“The scary part of the market is office assets,” Collins said.

“There are few transactions downtown. The vacancy rate is 43.4 per cent of listed space, including sub-leased space active in the market.

“There’s action in the suburbs where it’s a little tighter.”

Collins said the downtown core is defined as the area north of Wyandotte and bounded by Dougall Avenue to the west and McDougall Avenue to the east.

Dwaddell@postmedia.com

Twitter.com/winstarwaddell

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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