- Canada’s luxury market saw muted sales in the first quarter of 2023 as a shortage of conventional and top-tier inventory compelled real estate sellers and buyers to defer activity into the second quarter in anticipation of more property listings.
- Demand for luxury and conventional housing continues to intensify as previously sidelined sellers and buyers signal their need and readiness to transact in the season ahead.
- Real estate market confidence remains strong. 49% of urban Canadians between the ages of 18–77 years recently surveyed by Mustel Group and Sotheby’s International Realty Canada across Canada’s four largest metropolitan areas expect that a home or residential real estate purchase will perform the same or better than their other financial investments in 2023, and a resounding 60% believe that real estate will outperform or match their financial investments in the next decade.
- Record in-migration and a dynamic economy bolstered Calgary’s luxury market performance in the first quarter of 2023. Although $1 million-plus residential sales were down 36% from January 1– March 31 year-over-year, this sales volume was a significant 223% higher than levels recorded in the pre-pandemic first quarter of 2020 and more than the city’s 10-year average for sales over $1 million.
- Montreal’s luxury market continued to rebalance, as residential sales over $1 million pulled back by 43% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023.
- A scarcity of luxury listings in the City of Toronto limited potential transactions and contributed to a 64% year-over-year decline in Greater Toronto Area residential sales over $4 million in the first quarter of the year.
- In Vancouver’s inventory-starved market, first-quarter luxury sales activity over $4 million receded 53% year-over-year as prospective home buyers and sellers strategically deferred activity to spring.
Real eState
High-Pressure Spring: Competition Intensifies in Canada’s Luxury Real Estate Market as Buyer Demand Surges
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2023 State of Luxury Report, a shortage of luxury housing supply in the City of Toronto deflated the aspirations of potential home purchasers, and depressed total luxury sales volume across the Greater Toronto Area in the first quarter of 2023. As a result, GTA luxury residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) between January 1 – March 31 were down 64% year-over-year from the first quarter of 2022. During this time, one property sold over $10 million on MLS, compared to eight ultra-luxury residences sold above this price point in the same period last year. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were down 57% year-over-year in the GTA, foreshadowing a competitive market for appropriately priced and well-appointed luxury properties this spring.
Sales activity in the City of Vancouver’s luxury real estate market remained calm in the first quarter of 2023, a trend widely anticipated by both the real estate industry and consumers. This was due largely to the traditional seasonality of the real estate market, which typically sees diminished activity between December and March, as well as the “wait for spring” strategy employed by prospective home sellers, buyers and investors as they adjusted their approach to meet elevated interest rates and limited listings supply.
Alberta is projected to see steady economic growth over the next two years, according to the Conference Board of Canada, which anticipates a third consecutive year of growth for the province in 2023, primarily driven by the energy sector and high commodity prices. With the province’s GDP gains forecast at 2.1% in 2023 before accelerating to 2.8% in 2024, the City of Calgary’s steady economic revival and record-setting in-migration trends have renewed activity across the residential real estate market. Consumer confidence in the city’s overall real estate market is also healthy. According to recent survey results released by Mustel Group and Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, 52% of Calgary residents 18–77 years old believe that a home or residential real estate purchase will outperform or be on par with the performance of their financial investments in the next year, while 55% believe that real estate will outperform or match financial investment performance in the next decade.
As a result, the city’s luxury housing market was active and healthy in the first quarter of 2023, gaining steady traction as buyer and investor demand absorbed the limited listings inventory that came to market. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, although the market in the first quarter of the year skewed in favour of sellers, prospective home buyers engaged with discernment, confidence and the expectation that housing prices align with current market realities. The Calgary market is increasingly challenged, however, by a shortage of residential inventory overall, due in part to prospective sellers’ reluctance to list their properties due to concerns about finding a suitable next home. With the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reporting a nearly 26.4% year-over-year decrease in overall inventory in March 2023, the lowest inventory levels for March since 2006, and with new listings down 39.6%, the conventional and luxury real estate market risks tilting further in favour of sellers into the spring months.
As buyers and sellers adjusted to new market realities and sales velocity slowed, top-tier residential real estate sales over $1 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) in the City of Montreal fell 43% year-over-year, with 247 properties sold in the first quarter of 2023. Luxury sales over $4 million posted a moderate year-over-year decline of 33%, with eight total homes sold. Remaining consistent with the first quarter of 2022, no ultra-luxury property sales were reported over $10 million on Multiple Listing Services (MLS) between January 1– March 31, 2023.
For more information on Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and the Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2023 State of Luxury Report, contact:
Talk Shop Media
Amber Coyle
Amber@TalkShopMedia.com
250-215-3169
About Sotheby’s International Realty Canada
Combining the world’s most prestigious real estate brand with local market knowledge and specialized marketing expertise, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada is the leading real estate sales and marketing company for the country’s most exceptional properties. With offices in over 35 residential and resort markets nationwide, our professional associates provide the highest caliber of real estate service, unrivalled local and international marketing solutions and a global affiliate sales network of approximately 1,000 offices in 81+ countries and territories to manage the real estate portfolios of discerning clients from around the world. For further information, visit www.sothebysrealty.ca.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references survey results, plus market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates or Mustel Group for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.
Survey Methodology
Mustel Group and Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, “2023 Canadian Real Estate Market Sentiment: Generational Trends Report” is based on results from a survey employing an online methodology, using a robust national panel of Canadians between the ages of 18–77 who reside in the Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). The panel is maintained to be representative of the Canadian population and provide high-quality data. Panelists are recruited by a double opt-in method from large databases of reputable channels using industry standards of panel quality assurance, validation, verification and best practices for panel management. A total of 2,000 Canadian adults were surveyed, using a disproportionate sampling method to enable analysis between generational cohorts and within each metropolitan area, as well as across the combined metros (Census Metropolitan Areas, CMAs). The sample was weighted to match Canada census based on age and gender within each CMA and to bring the total sample into proper proportion based on relative populations. While the panel sample is demographically representative, margins of error only apply to random probability samples. (The margin of error on a random probability sample of 2,000 respondents is ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and ranges from ± 3.8 to 4.9 points for 400 – 680 respondents). Data for this report series was gathered from Jan 3 to Jan 10, 2023.
Real eState
Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board
TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Real eState
Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Real eState
Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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