Hope returns to Maple Leafs with long-shot lottery win

TORONTO — What a difference a day makes.

While this bold new era of Toronto Maple Leafs hockey — co-led by GM John Chayka and chief advisor Mats Sundin — opened with one of modern sport’s most strained management unveilings Monday, fans of the club were rejoicing 24 hours later.

On Tuesday, all the disappointment and disillusionment of this tortured team’s greatest year-over-year falloff gave way to something fresh and inspiring and all too rare this season.

The Maple Leafs don’t always play the NHL Draft Lottery. But when they do, they win.

“Well, you need some luck,” Chayka said, between leprechaun smiles. “And we got it tonight.”

Ending 2025-26 on a seven-game losing skid and tanking to 28th place in the NHL standings, the Maple Leafs were staring at a 58.5 per cent chance of falling out of the draft’s top five and surrendering their first-overall pick to the rival Boston Bruins — a caveat of 2025’s Brandon Carlo–Fraser Minten trade.

The Leafs’ odds of winning the draft lottery — which they did 10 years ago, the last time they missed the playoffs — were a scant 8.5 per cent.

Those odds shrunk to 4.5 per cent after the first two of four lottery balls got sucked up by Gary Bettman’s Magical Ping-Pong Ball Sucker-Upper.

Then the luck of St. Patrick struck twice. Toronto drew precisely what it needed on the turn and the river to take the pot.

The combination that unlocked the 2026’s first-overall draft pick and pierced the clouds with a ray of golden sunlight: 7–2–11–12.

“I’m extremely happy for the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fan base,” said Sundin, a first-overall pick himself in 1989. “It’s great to get the first pick. Great night. Great lottery.”

An “elated” Chayka has barely had a chance to catch his breath. 

He’s still waiting to sit down with his captain and his head coach. Heck, he hasn’t even met with his director of amateur scouting, Mark Leach, and an inherited scouting staff that will be making the No. 1 pick. 

Hired under skepticism from various league corners, the new GM got put through the media wringer Monday and pulled out a four-leaf clover Tuesday.

“Second day of the job,” Chayka said. “We’ll get together, we’ll go through everything, as we should, and be super diligent and make sure we know everything. 

“There’s always a lot of diligence when you’re picking first overall and making sure you nail it.”

Neither Sundin nor Chayka tipped their hand as to which blue-chip prospect they are leaning toward selecting on June 26 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo — the same site where the Maple Leafs scooped up a fresh-faced Auston Matthews in 2016.

“Exciting player,” Chayka said of McKenna. “I’ve tracked him for a number of years now. And the skill level, the creativity, the puck ability, and then his shot and release are all pretty special. So, good package.

“I know there’s a lot of passion for a lot of players, including Gavin.”

Similarly, Sundin has been tracking Stenberg in Sweden.

“Ivar has had a strong season, from the Junior World Championships,” Sundin said. “So, it’s going to be really great to follow them probably in the World Championship this year.

“Strong draft. So, it’s going to be interesting looking at these different players now knowing it’s a first-overall pick. So, a lot of work ahead for us.”

That’s an understatement.

Tuesday’s windfall spells go time. 

Toronto can ill afford to tank again in 2027 or 2028, as those first-round draft picks are now committed to Philadelphia (via 2025’s Scott Laughton trade) and Boston, respectively, without any protection.

Surely the addition of an NHL-ready winger will go a long way toward intriguing a conflicted Matthews, energizing a downtrodden dressing room, and reengaging a disgruntled fan base

“I don’t think it changes the vision or the strategy. But certainly when these things happen, it can change course and timelines,” Chayka said. 

“It’s a fortuitous bounce.”

The hockey gods will be smiling down on all those Leafs fans making an early-summer road trip and pointing their cars westbound on the ol’ QEW.

With a quick pit stop to party in Buffalo.