Three of the four biggest months for U.S. trade ever are the latest three months, according to my analysis of government data released Friday.
Three months in 2021 rank among the top 15 ever — the three most recent.
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More trade occurred in March than any month in U.S. history, with May third and April fourth all-time. The Census Bureau data released Friday covers through May.
That strength is not coming from the usual suspects. This will present another data set for financial markets and economists to digest, who are still wrestling with whether inflation is picking up only short-term or more long-term.
On the import side, motor vehicles, often the leading U.S. import, are off 22.62% from pre-pandemic total registered in May of 2019. That’s $3.45 billion.
The value of crude oil, the second-ranked import, was off 21.82% from May 0f 2019. That’s equal to $2.92 billion. The value of gasoline and other refined petroleum products, the seventh-ranked import, is down $514.02 million from May of 2019.
On the export side, the category led by civilian aircraft, which had ranked first for 76 consecutive months, has ranked second to oil three of the last five months, with May totals down 43.35% in May from the same month in 2019, before the pandemic.
Even oil, one of the nation’s fastest-growing exports, is down 5.13% from May of 2019. Motor vehicle parts, a key cog in the automotive supply chain, have yet to recover fully from the pandemic and are down $997.79 million, or 25.05%, from May of 2019.
So how to explain the record growth in U.S. trade?
As with total trade, three of the top 15 exports of all time are this year.
ustradenumbers.com
The growth on the export side, when comparing May of this year to May of 2019, is from:
No. 5-ranked natural gas and other petroleum gases, up $2.06 billion, 79.08%,
No. 6 computer chips, up $1.46 billion, 45.87%,
No. 9 vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions, up $934.31 million, a robust 45.86% from May two years ago.
No. 13-ranked corn, up 172.14%, equal to $1.5 billion.
No. 17 platinum, up $1.07 billion, 301.32% from May 2019.
To be clear, May 2019 was no slouch of a month. It was the second biggest May in history for U.S. exports, behind only May of 2021, and the 12-busiest of all time. Overall exports increased a meager 1.07% between May 2019 and May 2021.
March, April and May of 2021 have been strong years for U.S. imports as well as total trade.
ustradenumbers.com
On the import side, if not cars and oil, then what? And do these fast-growing imports suggest inflationary pressures?
Well, the effects of Covid-19 can still be seen in several high-flyers, including two of which registered values in May of 2021 more than $1 billion above the May 2019 total.
No. 18, a primary lumber category that has been well-publicized for being caught up in the supply chain shortage brought on my home repairs and other construction,. was up $1.33 billion in May, an increase of 245.14% over May of 2019.
No. 21 platinum is up $1.16 billion, an increase equal to 255.83%.
No. 3 computers are up $799.71 million, a less stratospheric 9.84% that is nevertheless slightly better than twice the rate of growth for all U.S. imports. Technology tends not to be hit by inflation; in fact, it is often quite the opposite, In this case, think home offices needing to be outfitted. Still. One year after the pandemic struck.
No. 10 computer chips were up $948.57 million in May, when compared to May of 2019, an increase of 35.26%.
No. 30, a category dominated by non-surgical rubber or latex gloves, was up $982.40 million, an increase of 418.42%. Think all those people wearing those blue gloves to serve you.
No. 40 exercise and gym equipment, is pumped up as well, increasing $525.35 million, a 87,07% jump. More than a few people didn’t like what they saw in that full-length mirror while stranded at home — and those sales seem to still be strong.
As was the case with exports, on the import side, it isn’t like May 2019 was a down year, making it easier to post big percentage gains this May. May of 2019 was the sixth biggest month in U.S. history.
Given the strong month of May, it should come as no surprise that U.S. trade is still running at a record pace, with overall trade at $1.79 trillion, a 4.36% gain on the record pace set in 2019. Exports stood at $692.28 billion through May, up a sliver, 0.83% above the 2018 record pace. Imports topped $1.09 trillion, an increase of 6.55% over the 2019 pace.
For the first time ever, the U.S. trade deficit topped $400 billion in the first five months of a year, ending at $401.34 billion. The percentage of trade that is a U.S. export, which tends to run somewhat parallel to the trade deficit, was at its lowest level since 2008, at 38.76%.
VANCOUVER – Canada’s labour minister says striking grain terminal workers in Metro Vancouver and their employers have reached a tentative labour deal.
Steven MacKinnon announced the agreement between Grain Workers Union Local 333 and the Vancouver Terminal Elevators’ Association in a post on social media platform X, but provided no other details.
The union confirmed the tentative deal in a statement on Facebook, saying its members will conduct the ratification vote by Oct. 4.
The notification from the union also says picket lines were to be removed Saturday and members will return to work pending ratification, ending the strike that had paralyzed grain shipments from Metro Vancouver’s port.
The dispute had previously led to picket lines going up at six Metro Vancouver grain terminals on Tuesday as about 600 workers went on strike.
Canadian grain producers had urged a resolution in the dispute, noting about 52 per cent of the country’s grains moved through Metro Vancouver terminals last year en route to being exported.
Farmers say the strike, happening during crop harvesting, would result in as much as $35 million per day in lost exports.
The Western Grain Elevator Association said on Friday that talks had stalled after two days of negotiations this week, with the employer saying it had increased its offers to settle “outstanding issues.”
The employers group had said they’ve reached the end of their “financial ability to conclude an agreement that industry can absorb” with the last offer, and it was up to the federally appointed mediator to report the results to MacKinnon for the next steps.
MacKinnon says in his tweet that both parties put in “the work necessary to get a deal done.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 28, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index dipped lower Friday despite strength in energy stocks, while U.S. markets were mixed as the Dow eked out another record but tech stocks dragged.
The mood Friday was mixed after a strong week for equities in both Canada and the U.S., said Andrew Buntain, vice-president and portfolio manager at Fiduciary Trust Canada.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 77.01 points at 23,956.82, one day after it . It closed over 24,000 for the first time on Thursday.
The strength this past week wasn’t just in North American markets, noted Buntain, as Chinese stocks enjoyed a rally after the country’s central banks announced a suite of measures intended to boost the economy.
Meanwhile, an undercurrent of broadening strength continued this week as investors spread out their interest beyond a narrow set of tech giants, said Buntain.
“Some of the sectors that have been ignored for several years have been some of the better performers this year,” he said.
“We’re very encouraged by that.”
In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 137.89 points at 42,313. The S&P 500 index was down 7.20 points at 5,738.17 after setting an all-time high on Thursday, while the Nasdaq composite was down 70.70 points at 18,119.59.
A report Friday on one of the U.S. central bank’s preferred measures of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — showed continued cooling.
The Federal Reserve started lowering its key interest rate last week, and is expected to keep going this fall and into 2025.
However, the Fed’s next interest rate decision isn’t until November, noted Buntain, so there’s plenty of data for the central bank to take in yet — including next week’s labour report.
The job market has been an increasingly key focus for the central bank after recent reports showed cooling in that area of the economy. Friday’s report also showed consumer spending in August didn’t meet economists’ expectations.
In Canada, where the Bank of Canada is set for its next rate decision later in October, Friday brought a GDP report that was a little stronger than expected, said Buntain.
“The Bank of Canada has already delivered three cuts and signalled maybe some further reductions,” he said.
If inflation continues to move lower, Buntain added, the Bank of Canada could even announce an outsized half-percentage-point cut, echoing the Fed’s move last week.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.08 cents US compared with 74.22 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 51 cents at US$68.18 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up 15 cents at US$2.90 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$26.80 at US$2,668.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.60 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.
The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.
The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.
The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.
Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.
