OTTAWA —
New national modelling on the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada shows that “hotspots” remain in Ontario and Quebec, and the percentage of younger people contracting the virus has increased in proportion to a decrease in older patients in the last month.
Federal health officials are projecting that as of July 12 the country could see between 103,940 and 108,130 cases, and between 8,545 and 8,865 deaths.
To-date there are 103,818 confirmed Canadian COVID-19 cases, of which 64 per cent have recovered, while there have been 8,566 deaths.
Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam and Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo are providing a revised picture of the current epidemic in this country.
The latest federal figures indicate that the two main hotpots remain around Toronto and Montreal, as well as in pockets of Saskatchewan and southern Ontario, but that overall Canada’s experience with the novel coronavirus has been a case of regional epidemics, with some provinces and territories going weeks now without new cases.
The health officials said that the daily numbers of hospitalized and critical care cases are also steadily declining as recoveries increase. The modelling also shows that while there has been a steep decline in transmission among older age groups, there has been a relative increase in Canadians aged 20-39 contracting COVID-19 since late May.
“As the epidemic has slowed the incident rate has steadily declined in all age groups. But the decline has been relatively slow in younger age groups… Individuals under the age of 40 now account for a greater proportion of total cases in recent weeks,” Tam said.
Dr. Tam said that in order for COVID-19 to “die out” in Canada, effective reproduction number (Rt) — the average number of people infected by each case—needs to remain below one, and Canada’s Rt rate has been less than one for eight weeks.
Tam also cautioned that outbreaks have also recently been linked to social gatherings, particularly in closed settings with close contacts like funerals or other family gatherings. She is advising people to limit keep the number of close contacts people have and avoid enclosed and crowded spaces.
“You should ask yourself if you do test positive, consider that the fewer people that you have contact with, the quicker and easier it will be for public health to trace them all down and interrupt chains of transmission to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control,” she said.
Going forward she said the capacity for contact tracing and isolating new cases will need to continue to increase. Over time the testing rates and case detection have sped up, though Canada is still only testing on average of 38,000 people daily, when Tam has previously said the target is closer to 60,000.
PM CALLS FOR VIGILANCE
Ahead of the update, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that when it comes to the spread of COVID-19, Canada is heading in the right direction, though the threat remains.
“The virus remains a very serious threat to our health,” Trudeau said Monday, updating Canadians on the latest pandemic relief efforts the federal government is working on, which includes looking to extend a commercial rent relief program for another month.
“After a very challenging spring, things are continuing to move in the right direction. We still have some hotspots in some parts of the country, but nationally, the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is declining over time. And that’s because Canadians are doing their part,” Trudeau said. “Though, while we’re on the right track, the fight against COVID-19 is not over yet. As we start to reopen parts of the economy we must continue to follow local public health guidelines to keep each other safe.”
Trudeau drove home throughout his address the need to remain on top of measures like mask wearing and physical distancing, or risk losing the progress made as is being seen in other countries, particularly the United States where cases are surging to near-early pandemic levels after states eased off on health restrictions.
“It going to be really, really important that everyone remains attentive and vigilant to their own behaviors, so that we can prevent a second wave from arriving… as we’re beginning to see in places around the world, but also, so we can minimize any wave, if it does hit,” Trudeau said.
Trudeau also said that as it’s now summer, he and federal health officials will be transitioning out of the nearly daily national addresses, to coming out to speak to Canadians “a few times a week… when we have briefings, or information to share” and still publishing the latest figures on cases and deaths every day.
SCALED-DOWN DEATH PROJECTIONS
Monday’s figures are the fourth federal modelling update offered by Heath Canada officials, and the death estimates are now far below what the initial projections estimated.
Tam warned earlier this month, that Canada could see “explosive growth” in new cases if reopening is not done with caution. The figures showed that, if the spread prevention measures are insufficient, Canada could have another peak come October.
The previous national projections on the severity and scope of COVID-19 prior to Monday’s update showed that 82 per cent of all COVID-19 deaths are linked to seniors’ homes, and that outbreaks in other congregate living and work settings are also driving case counts, such as those in meat packing plants, shelters, and correctional facilities. As well, approximately 94 per cent of the deaths have occurred in people over the age of 60.
During the April 28 modelling update Canada first saw indicators that the COVID-19 curve was flattening in Canada and that the rate of case spread had levelled off in most provinces. The modelling at that time also showed that, compared to other countries, Canada’s epidemic growth has been slower.
The first round of projections showed the peak of cases in Canada might come in late spring, with the end of the first wave in the summer. On April 9, it was estimated that between 4,000 and 300,000 people in Canada could die from COVID-19 during the pandemic depending on the level of containment efforts. Though health officials estimated that, under the current public health measures, the realistic figure would be somewhere between 11,000 and 44,000 COVID-19 deaths in the months ahead.
At the time, Trudeau said to expect small outbreaks to continue once the initial wave was over, saying certain public health precautions would be the new normal until a vaccine is developed.
While that high rate of projected deaths has now come down considerably, Tam reiterated Trudeau’s sentiment: “I want everyone to remember that the virus has not disappeared and resurgence can happen anytime or at any place. Until there is a vaccine or an effective treatment we need to continue to live with COVID-19.”
EDMONTON – Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his career as the New Jersey Devils closed out their Western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Monday.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored for the Devils (8-5-2) who have won three of their last four on the heels on a four-game losing skid.
The Oilers (6-6-1) had their modest two-game winning streak snapped.
Calvin Pickard made 13 stops between the pipes for Edmonton.
TAKEAWAYS
Devils: In addition to his goal, Bratt picked up his 12th assist of the young season to give him nine points in his last eight games and now 15 points overall. Nico Hischier remains in the team lead, picking up an assist of his own to give him 16 points for the campaign. He has a point in all but four games this season.
Oilers: Forward Leon Draisaitl was held pointless after recording six points in his previous two games and nine points in his previous four. Draisaitl usually has strong showings against the Devils, coming into the contest with an eight-game point streak against New Jersey and 11 goals in 17 games.
KEY MOMENT
New Jersey took a 2-0 lead on the power play with 3:26 remaining in the second period as Hischier made a nice feed into the slot to Bratt, who wired his third of the season past Pickard.
KEY RETURN?
Oilers star forward and captain Connor McDavid took part in the optional morning skate for the Oilers, leading to hopes that he may be back sooner rather than later. McDavid has been expected to be out for two to three weeks with an ankle injury suffered during the first shift of last Monday’s loss in Columbus.
OILERS DEAL FOR D-MAN
The Oilers have acquired defenceman Ronnie Attard from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for defenceman Ben Gleason.
The 6-foot-3 Attard has spent the past three season in the Flyers organization seeing action in 29 career games. The 25-year-old right-shot defender and Western Michigan University grad was originally selected by Philadelphia in the third round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Attard will report to the Oilers’ AHL affiliate in Bakersfield.
UP NEXT
Devils: Host the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday.
Oilers: Host the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, and Kareem Hunt pounded into the end zone from two yards out in overtime to give the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs a 30-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.
DeAndre Hopkins had two touchdown receptions for the Chiefs (8-0), who drove through the rain for two fourth-quarter scores to take a 24-17 lead with 4:17 left. But then Kansas City watched as Baker Mayfield led the Bucs the other way in the final minute, hitting Ryan Miller in the end zone with 27 seconds to go in regulation time.
Tampa Bay (4-5) elected to kick the extra point and force overtime, rather than go for a two-point conversion and the win. And it cost the Buccaneers when Mayfield called tails and the coin flip was heads. Mahomes and the Chiefs took the ball, he was 5-for-5 passing on their drive in overtime, and Hunt finished his 106-yard rushing day with the deciding TD plunge.
Travis Kelce had 14 catches for 100 yards with girlfriend Taylor Swift watching from a suite, and Hopkins finished with eight catches for 86 yards as the Chiefs ran their winning streak to 14 dating to last season. They became the sixth Super Bowl champion to start 8-0 the following season.
Mayfield finished with 200 yards and two TDs passing for the Bucs, who have lost four of their last five.
It was a memorable first half for two players who had been waiting to play in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Bucs’ Rachaad White grew up about 10 minutes away in a tough part of Kansas City, but his family could never afford a ticket for him to see a game. He wound up on a circuitous path through Division II Nebraska-Kearney and a California junior college to Arizona State, where he eventually became of a third-round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2022 draft.
Two year later, White finally got into Arrowhead — and the end zone. He punctuated his seven-yard scoring run in the second quarter, which gave the Bucs a 7-3 lead, by nearly tossing the football into the second deck.
Then it was Hopkins’ turn in his first home game since arriving in Kansas City from a trade with the Titans.
The three-time All-Pro, who already had caught four passes, reeled in a third-down heave from Mahomes amid triple coverage for a 35-yard gain inside the Tampa Bay five-yard line. Three plays later, Mahomes found him in the back of the end zone, and Hopkins celebrated his first TD with the Chiefs with a dance from “Remember the Titans.”
Tampa Bay tried to seize control with consecutive scoring drives to start the second half. The first ended with a TD pass to Cade Otton, the latest tight end to shred the Chiefs, and Chase McLaughlin’s 47-yard field goal gave the Bucs a 17-10 lead.
The Chiefs answered in the fourth quarter. Mahomes marched them through the rain 70 yards for a tying touchdown pass, which he delivered to Samaje Perine while landing awkwardly and tweaking his left ankle, and then threw a laser to Hopkins on third-and-goal from the Buccaneers’ five-yard line to give Kansas City the lead.
Tampa Bay promptly went three-and-out, but its defence got the ball right back, and this time Mayfield calmly led his team down field. His capped the drive with a touchdown throw to Miller — his first career TD catch — with 27 seconds to go, and Tampa Bay elected to play for overtime.
UP NEXT
Buccaneers: Host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Darcy Kuemper made 16 saves for his first shutout of the season and 32nd overall, helping the Los Angeles Kings beat the Nashville Predators 3-0 on Monday night.
Adrian Kempe had a goal and an assist and Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala also scored. The Kings have won two of their last three.
Juuse Saros made 24 saves for the Predators. They are 1-2-1 in their last four.
Kopitar opened the scoring with 6:36 remaining in the opening period. Saros denied the Kings captain’s first shot, but Kopitar collected the rebound below the goal line and banked it off the netminder’s skate.
Fiala, a former Predator, made it 2-0 35 seconds into the third.
The Kings held Nashville to just three third-period shots on goal, the first coming with 3:55 remaining and Saros pulled for an extra attacker.
Elsewhere in the NHL on Monday:
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DEVILS 3 OILERS 0
EDMONTON, Alta. (AP) — Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his NHL career, helping the New Jersey Devils close their western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored. The Devils improved to 8-5-2. They have won three of their last four after a four-game skid.
Calvin Pickard made 13 saves for Edmonton. The Oilers had won two straight.
