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Housing market predictions: Six experts weigh in on the real estate outlook in 2024

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No other phrase has defined the 2023 housing market as much as the “mortgage rate lock in effect” – a phenomenon that brought the industry to a standstill, putting downward pressure on everything from inventory levels to home sales.

The pandemic-era sub-5% mortgage interest rates that 85% of current mortgage holders are locked in to kept current homeowners from selling their home and buying another at elevated interest rates, which peaked at 7.79% the week ending Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac.

But will things change this year?

There are signs that market conditions will be improving.

Mortgage rates dropped steadily over the past seven weeks, averaging 6.61 % for a 30-year fixed mortgage, the week ending Dec. 28.

Learn more: Best mortgage lenders

The lower mortgage rates provided a boost to existing-home sales which grew in November, up 0.8% from October and breaking a streak of five consecutive monthly declines, according to the National Association of Realtors.

A home for sale in Palm Beach, Florida

Year-over-year, sales fell 7.3% (down from 4.12 million in November 2022).

Dr. Lawrence Yun

“A marked turn can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Housing shortages will continue

One thing most experts don’t expect to see is an end to shortage of homes for sale.

Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com

“Despite this, households will have more options in 2024 from a small uptick in single-family home construction, and the completion of the large number of multi-family units that are currently under construction, the vast majority of which are destined to be rental homes,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.

The additional inventory of new construction homes and apartments will curb the uptick in home and rental prices even as long-running shortages keep prices from slipping too far.

However, as rapidly rising mortgage rates have driven affordability to record lows, builders responded by slowing production says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American.

Odeta Kushi

“Builders now can chip away at the backlog of homes already under construction. Yet, even with these homes eventually coming to market, the housing market will likely remain structurally undersupplied,” she says.

Home price growth will vary from market to market

Against this backdrop, nationwide sales are expected to see only a modest uptick in 2024 over 2023’s long-term low.  Real estate activity will vary significantly from market to market with some top-growth areas expected to see double-digit increases, according to Hale.

Combined sales and price activity are expected to be highest in two major groups of markets. The first are affordable markets in the Midwest and Northeast like Toledo, Ohio, Rochester, New York, says Hale. The second set are in Southern California where a reduction in mortgage rates could help the area bounce back from a particularly slow 2023.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $387,600, an increase of 4% from November 2022 ($372,700). All four U.S. regions posted price increases.

“Home prices keep marching higher,” Yun says. “Only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation.”

Mortgage rates and affordability

Most experts predict the average 30-year mortgage rate to linger anywhere between 6.1% to 7% range in the first quarter, then decline throughout the year.

Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin

“Mortgage rates are likely to remain well above pandemic-era record lows because financial markets increasingly believe the country will avoid a recession in 2024,” says Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Mortgage rates will fall to about 6.6% by the end of 2024. The gradual decline in rates combined with the small dip in prices will bring homebuyers some much-needed relief.”

Election year volatility will make mortgage rates jumpy, so 30-year fixed rate estimates range would be in the mid 6% range, according to Jeff Taylor, founder and managing director at Mphasis Digital Risk.

Jeff Taylor, founder and managing director at Mphasis Digital Risk

At 7.125% rates and current median home prices, it takes $111,000 and $107,000 in household income to buy newly built and existing homes, respectively, with 5% down, says Taylor.

 If mortgage rates fell 1% to 6.125% and home prices rose a modest 4% as projected by FHFA in 2024, it would take $105,000 and $99,000 to buy newly built and existing homes, respectively, with 5% down.

New home construction

With a decline for mortgage interest rates and an ongoing housing deficit, Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders is forecasting a gain for single-family housing construction starts in 2024. This will be the first year of increase after declines in 2022 and 2023.

Robert Dietz, chief economist for National Association of Home Builders

“Due to low existing inventory, new construction has increased to approximately 1/3rd of total single-family inventory in recent months when historically it was only 10% to 15%,” Dietz says.

Multifamily construction will experience a significant decline. Financing conditions are very tight and there are approximately one million apartments under construction, the highest total since 1973.

The level of remodeling activity will be approximately flat in 2024 compared to 2023. The housing stock is aging and requires reinvestment (the typical home in the U.S. is near 40 years old).

Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy is a housing and economy correspondent for USA TODAY.  You can follow her on Twitter

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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