Real eState

How a vaccine could upend real estate markets — again – CNN

Published

4 years ago

November 18, 2020

Nationally, home prices have never been higher, driven up as surging demand due to record low mortgage rates comes up against historically low inventory of homes for sale.

But the most expensive urban areas have been experiencing the opposite problem. Cities like New York and San Francisco have seen higher vacancy rates and lower rents and sale prices as many people, untethered from office jobs, retreated to the suburbs and less densely populated areas.

But with potential vaccines on the horizon, real estate in big cities could see a turnaround.

“It’s not going to be a light switch,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a real estate appraiser and consultant in New York City. “But the news is starting to get people to be hopeful and think about returning to the city. Because right now, without a vaccine, it is status quo.”

While widespread vaccination is still a ways off, the news alone is a good sign that real estate in cities will continue to recover as the prospect of vaccines becomes more realistic, said Richard Smith, chairman and executive director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, a nonprofit that studies recurring patterns in economics, social sciences and nature.

“Sometimes it is when the news gets less bad that you get your biggest gains,” he said.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs), investments backed by real estate, that had cratered when the pandemic broke out, have already recovered some of their losses and moved higher on the vaccine news.

Here’s what the vaccine could mean for renters and home buyers.

Will people return to cities?

The more a vaccine brings life closer to “normal,” the more city real estate markets will change, said Miller.

“Once the vaccine is out and the population begins seeing schools reliably open and the big companies bringing people back in, that’s where it snowballs,” he said. “Then people can make plans around it.”

In Manhattan, the rental market will come back first, he said, because that activity has fallen the most and there is a lower bar to entry. But with rental inventory currently triple what it was a year ago, don’t expect rents to go up soon.

The Manhattan rental market remains historically weak. Last month saw a record-high number of apartments available to rent and a record-high share of rental apartments leased with concessions like one or two months free rent, according to brokerage firm Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.

The vacancy rate in Manhattan is at a new all-time high of 6.14%. That’s caused record price declines in rents. The median rent for a one bedroom in Manhattan in October, for example, was $3,064 a month, down 4.1% from September and down 14.8% from a year ago.

“There has been a precipitous drop in the cost of a rental and the expectation is that there is still more of that ahead, until the inventory is eaten up,” said Miller. “There is still a lot of runway ahead. We’ll be well into 2021 and a vaccine until we get into an uptick in pricing.”

For those looking to buy, purchasing a home in New York will be more attractive when a vaccine makes all the things a city has to offer possible again, Miller said, including easy access to dining, theater, concerts and events.

“The first thing that has to happen in terms of really accelerating the re-adoption of city life in the post-pandemic world, is going to be when companies, especially the Fortune 500 companies as leaders, start to bring people back to work,” he said.

Buyers won’t leave the suburbs behind

The uncertainty of this past year has left a mark on buyers, particularly those with higher incomes who can afford a second home near the city as a refuge that requires no planes or planning, said Dottie Herman, chief executive of Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

“The virus made the home very important,” said Herman. “Working from home will be here to stay, in some way. It won’t be only working from home, but some combination of at home and the office.”

That has created wish lists for new homes that include outdoor space and offices and it has expanded locations for buyers, lengthening the commuting tether between home and office, she said.

Strong demand in the suburbs and resort communities near cities will continue, she said. Even though many suburban areas around New York passed their pandemic peak in the summer, in many areas sales are still above levels seen a year ago.

“People have gotten used to working from home and are comfortable living farther from the city,” she said. “That won’t change with a vaccine. Second homes will continue to be a booming market nationally.”

Will mortgage rates stay low?

Mortgage interest rates hit a 12th all-time low heading into November, and some economists say even lower rates may be ahead. Others, however, say the vaccine news could reverse the downward trend.

“While rates are always unpredictable, sustained record lows are looking less likely in light of recent events,” said Brendan Phillips, a capital markets analyst at Better.com, an online lender. “Rates jumped when pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced its Covid-19 vaccine had shown 90% efficacy in trials.”

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed to the encouraging progress of vaccine research as a reason to think the economy may sustain a “V-shaped” recovery, bouncing back quickly to pre-pandemic levels. Other economists say that the ability of Congress to finally pass a stimulus package will also affect the speed of the country’s recovery from the current recession.

“Good news for the economy, though, usually means higher rates,” said Phillips.

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Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

Published

2 hours ago

November 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

Published

2 weeks ago

October 24, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

Published

3 weeks ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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