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How Biden and Trump Pollsters See the Politics of the Supreme Court Fight – New York Magazine

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Photo: Fred Schilling/Collection of the Supreme Court of the United States/Getty Images

John Anzalone was having a rare evening off from the presidential race, going out to a socially distanced outdoor dinner with his wife and another couple near his home in Montgomery, Alabama. He was already enjoying his first Paloma of the evening when the phone rang, and rang, and rang. He tried to ignore it but couldn’t. When he picked up, the caller on the line told him the news that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was dead at 87.

Anzalone, the chief pollster and a senior adviser for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, felt his heart sink. He was saddened by the news of a liberal lion of the court passing away and concerned that a presidential race that has seen his client maintain a consistent lead in the high single digits might suddenly be thrown into disarray.

But he also knew reporters would be calling all weekend to ask if this was going to be the earthquake that would shake up a race that had been stable since the spring — even as a pandemic killed 200,000 Americans and left segments of the economy in tatters. This supposed seismic event was coming on the heels of other seismic events: violent protests rocking Portland, Oregon, and Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Trump calling for “Law and Order” and tagging Democrats as allies of antifa. Anzalone’s phone burned up during those weeks, too, and the result was a presidential race that had tightened by only half a percentage point at the most.

“This doesn’t change the fundamentals of this race,” he said. “It just changes the headline.”

In my conversations with nearly a dozen pollsters and strategists for both parties working on the presidential race and on tight Senate races around the country, this was the consensus view. In the waning days of a presidential race that is already moving at a million miles an hour, the prospect of Trump seating a sixth conservative justice over Democratic objections is unlikely to hurt or help either side very much.

“I still think the country is going to be consumed by coronavirus, by the recovery, by the economy, by jobs,” said John McLaughlin, a pollster for Donald Trump. “This is on the agenda, and I think it is going to consume Washington, but I think people are a lot more interested in other things.”

Still, in a tight race — and despite Biden’s national polling lead, several pathways remain for Trump to eke out a win in the Electoral College — even small advantages can matter in big ways. Back in 2018, after Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy retired and Brett Kavanaugh was named to be his replacement, more than 20 million Americans tuned in as Kavanaugh tried to fend off allegations of sexual assault. Trump and the Republicans turned the confirmation hearings into a rallying cry about how unfair the news media and the Democrats were. The blowback, many Democrats believe, helped them flip suburban House districts around the country en route to a 41-seat House majority, but it also, they say, helped Republicans flip Senate seats held by Democrats in conservative states like South Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri by convincing GOP-leaning voters to come home.

This has been the Republicans’ play for most of the Trump era: finding a culture-war wedge that can excite the base. It’s a difficult maneuver to pull off with a center-left electorate, but in 2016 it was enough for Trump to win an Electoral College victory despite losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million, and enough to flip three Senate seats in 2018 despite a Democratic-wave election.

And Trump is making the same play, his advisers and other unaffiliated Republicans say, hoping that naming another conservative to the bench will ignite both Democratic and Republican backlashes.

“Trump needs a unified base. He has understood that since day one, and everything you see him doing now [by quickly moving to name a Ginsburg replacement] is in service to that,” said Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster. “You look in a lot of states where Republican [Senate candidates] are performing below their fundamentals — Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina — and they need these Trump voters to come out for them.”
National polls show most voters would prefer that the Senate wait to confirm the next Supreme Court justice until after the election. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday found that 62 percent held this view, while just 23 percent thought the seat should be filled by the current president and Senate. And the prospect of Trump naming Ginsburg’s successor has brought a torrent of money into Democratic coffers. ActBlue, the Democrats’ online fundraising arm, received more than $91 million in little more than the first day after Ginsburg’s death and looks set to double that amount by the beginning of next week.

Still, Republicans say that any time the conversation can be dominated by a Supreme Court fight, they benefit. Polls that show Trump naming Ginsburg’s successor as unpopular are that way because, for many voters, this means replacing Trump with Ginsburg; once a new justice is named, especially if she’s a camera-ready woman like the leading candidates, Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa, voters will have another figure to latch on to, one they don’t want to see dragged by Democrats on the Judiciary Committee or by the media, according to Brad Todd, a Republican strategist working on Senate races in North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona.

“It is going to be about the issues; it is going to be about the judge,” Todd said. “You take suburban Republican women who don’t like Trump and didn’t want to vote for him, and when the media attacks Amy Coney Barrett over her faith or over the fact that she has seven children, they are going to see it as an attack on them.”

Democratic strategists say that is nonsense and not borne out by the data. Trump’s numbers have hardly moved in four years, and even in states where Trump is popular, Republican Senate candidates are often running behind him. Over the next six weeks, Democrats intend to show that the willingness of GOP senators to abandon previous pledges not to vote on a Supreme Court nominee in a president’s final year in office is exactly what people don’t like about Republican senators: that they are craven politicians and Trump toadies who don’t stand up for their states’ interests.

“Look at South Carolina,” said Jef Pollock, a Democratic pollster working on nine competitive Senate races across the country. “You have a guy in Lindsey Graham, who has been consistently underperforming in the polls relative to Trump. And why is that? It’s because that guy is full of shit, and the voters know it. Voters — and I’m talking even Republican voters that are going to vote for Trump — say they aren’t voting for Graham because they see him as phony. I don’t see how watching him lick Donald Trump’s boots over the next 40 days is really going to help his cause.”

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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