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How bonds can diversify an investment portfolio

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Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre explains why the bond market is still important for investors.

Video Transcript

[AUDIO LOGO]

AKIKO FUJITA: Welcome back to “New Year, New You,” brought to you by Synchrony Bank Savings. Well, let’s take a look at bond market performance today, tomorrow, and even far into the past. We’ve got Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre at the Y-Fi Interactive to walk us through this one. Jared.

JARED BLIKRE: That’s right. And let’s start out with the bond market, as we’ve been talking about. This is the 13-week T-bill, so technically not a bond. This is a short end of the curve. This tracks what the Federal Reserve has been doing. And over the last year, we’ve had a surge of activity. Went from near zero, accelerated in the summer, and then started plateauing later in the year. But still going up, and very important to understand that. That has put considerable pressure on risk markets.

Now, here is the S&P 500. One year ago, the market was making record highs, first time we ever made a record high on the first trading date of the year. And you can see we’re still well within a bear market, trading at the lower end of the range here, down 20% over this time period. Now, was it a bad year for bonds? Yes, it was. In fact, it was a worse year for bonds going back about 100 years. You’d have to go back to World War I. After World War I as that was wrapping up, we had a worse year.

And also interesting is that we were coming out of a pandemic, the worst pandemics since the last very recent one that we had. Also interesting to look at this chart because B of A has done a great job of going back all the way to the 1700s. South Sea bubble– if you guys haven’t heard of that, you should look it up. The Civil War is in here, post-World War I, UK going off the gold standard, Marshall Plan. That’s World War II. Suffice to say, these are game-changing moments for the market.

Now, let me show you my next slide here. This is negative yielding debt. Why is this here, maybe out of place? No, because I am seeing this as the final chapter on easy money. Negative yielding debt was an experiment that grew in the era of easy, cheap money. And look at that decline here from the pandemic stimulus to right now. That is round-trip to zero. I’m not saying it can’t go up again, but I think this is probably in the history books as a failed experiment.

Now, looking ahead, January actually has very positive seasonality, especially in the third year of the presidential cycle, which is where we are right now. You can see this the Dow’s second-best month out of the year. S&P 500 and NASDAQ– that is their best month of the year, number one place here. And stocks go up. Dow usually goes up 4% in January, S&P 500 about the same amount, and the NASDAQ almost up 17%.

And a really good track record over the years since 1950. 16 up, 2 down, 11 up, 2 down only because of the time period that we’re looking at here. So we could see some activity pick up in January. And there’s an old saying– as January goes, so does the year. That’s in play too. So January a very important bellwether for the entire year.

I want to close on this. This is a look back on the total days when the S&P 500 index moved 2% or more. And this goes back all the way to the 1960s, basically the beginning, almost so. And you can see we are in an era of elevated volatility. 2020-2022 really impacted the markets because of that high volatility, and there’s no reason to think that it’s just going to disappear out of the blue this year. But we’ll have to see.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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