No matter how frequently it happens, it’s always a bit startling.
Ever since February 2019, polls have been coming out indicating that former Vice President Joe Biden is competitive with — sometimes even leading — President Donald Trump in Texas. A June 3 poll by Quinnipiac University gave Trump a 1-percentage-point lead in the state. A recent FiveThirtyEight roundup of “key battleground state” polls taken since May 1 shows Trump up by an average of 1.5 points here.
And every time a survey is released, the same questions arise: Is 2020 the year deep red Texas flips to the Democrats? Is Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in trouble as well?
But for many in politics, the consideration is slightly different: The state is clearly more competitive. But even if Biden can compete here, how seriously will he choose to?
The answer to that question is more complicated. For Biden and his allied groups, making a run for Texas is no simple task and there are strategic considerations beyond looking at the polls. The most immediate objectives for national Democrats in 2020 are to recapture the White House and Senate majority. And Texas is far from necessary for either.
Recent polls have suggested Biden might hold an even stronger position in other states that Trump won in 2016 — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and even Georgia. And because of its vast size, numerous media markets and massive population, Texas is more expensive to compete in. The paths to victory for Biden are so great in number, it’s hard for many political operatives to imagine a scenario where Texas would flip where it would be anything other than icing on the cake in a much broader national victory.
In other words, the cost of seriously trying to win Texas would almost certainly be high, while there’s a decent chance that the reward would ultimately prove inconsequential.
Below the surface, however, the presidential race in Texas still matters — an underperformance by Trump compared to recent history has the potential to reset Texas politics for the next decade. The central question in the political class every time one of these polls is released five months out from Election Day is: What kind of down-ballot damage could Republicans potentially suffer if Biden has coattails?
“It’s competitive, but I’m not predicting Biden will win,” said John Weaver, a Texas-based Republican who is part of an anti-Trump group called The Lincoln Project. “Trump will have to spend a ton of money and come down here several times. And the Texas House is gettable for Democrats and probably two to four congressional seats.”
It is those races — the ones for state House and the U.S. House seats — that will likely be the most consequential front in the battle for Texas this fall, according to interviews with three dozen state and national operatives.
And amid all these atmospherics, the Trump campaign expressed confidence in its Texas outlook, and its ability to raise and deliver resources across the country.
“We are doing our due diligence that we are leaving no stone unturned ahead of November, and we remain very confident that Texas will remain in Republican hands,” said Trump Victory spokeswoman Samantha Cotten. “We share our information, we share our data through the RNC. We’re not just helping President Trump, but Republicans up and down the ballot.”
Biden, meanwhile, has publicly insisted that he has Texas in his sights. And his campaign could well end up making significant investments in the state.
“Texas is an important battleground state for our campaign in 2020,” he told the state Democratic Party’s convention earlier this month. “I think we have a real chance to turn the state blue because of the work all of you have done.”
Other national priorities
Beginning in 2016, Texas political observers have witnessed dramatic movement within the state’s urban and suburban regions toward Democratic candidates. While Trump over-performed in the Rust Belt, he is widely blamed for increasing misfortunes in the Lone Star State, particularly in the Dallas and Houston metros.
Democrats argue they will be competitive deep into traditionally Republican territory this year. An influx of newcomers to the state, growing diversity in the suburbs and an exodus of white, college-educated women from the GOP have completely scrambled age-old assumptions on voter turnout. This trend most showed itself in 2018, when then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within three percentage points of unseating U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.
“The Republican base of old white guys like me is dying — literally,” said Jerry Patterson, a former Republican state Land Commissioner who is open about his unhappiness with Trump.
Despite this logic, national Democrats say Texas’ Electoral College votes and the Cornyn Senate seat are intriguing but rank at the bottom of the second tier of priorities.
For some Democrats who have a say in spending decisions at the presidential level, the first priority is to avoid losing three Rust Belt states that went Republican in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. There is little appetite to take exotic risks on places like Texas in this context.
As Trump continues to sink in national polling, the map expands into states that are far cheaper than Texas, according to several national Democratic operatives interviewed for this story. In the event Democrats feel confident in those three Rust Belt states, they will most likely shift focus to other reach-states like Arizona, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio.
But Texas could still provide a strategic boost: If Biden’s polling organically holds into the fall, Republicans may have to pull money from other battleground states to shore up Trump’s Texas standing.
It is similarly unlikely the Senate majority will rest with the political fate of Cornyn, who is running for his fourth term, as races in other states appear competitive. If Democrats win the White House, they’d need to gain three U.S. Senate seats to win control of the chamber.
But Cornyn has also done much to bolster his reelection with prolific fundraising. He reported about $13 million in reserves this spring — an astonishing sum that means it is highly unlikely national Republicans will have to move money from other races to save him.
Furthermore, the Democratic runoff remains contested. The nominee will not be determined until July and, whether that person is Air Force veteran M.J. Hegar or state Sen. Royce West of Dallas, the nominee will enter the general election later than usual and with his or her fundraising coffers likely depleted.
“I do think there are other candidates and states that are well ahead of making races more competitive than where Texas is right now,” said Jessica Taylor, a Senate race analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
Depending on the national environment, Cornyn could feel a squeeze from a Biden over-performance and Democratic organizing down-ballot. Democrats and Republicans alike are bracing for a scenario in which that race appears competitive in the fall. If that comes to pass, it would not be impossible to see a national Democratic advertising campaign in Texas.
“Depending on what happens in the Democratic Senate runoff, Cornyn is not out of the woods,” said Weaver, the Republican who may end up working against Cornyn and other GOP Senate candidates.
And that is why it is Cornyn, more than any other Texas Republican, has been ringing the alarm to Republicans underneath him on the ballot.
State House is the Texas prize
When national Democrats look at Texas, there is no greater priority than taking control of the state House and in turn a say in drawing political districts in 2021. In interview after interview, Democrats say they see a more-friendly congressional map in Texas as one of the most fruitful paths to expanding the U.S. House majority they anticipate they will hold in the fall.
“Texas is in play, obviously, because we want to make sure that we gain the majority that we need in the state House, but we are focused on winning the Congressional seats at play,” said Jane Hamilton, a former Biden campaign staffer.
“And in terms of a Biden administration, he would obviously want a Congress that he can work with,” Hamilton added.
Here and there in Texas, there are Republicans who are concerned that state legislative and U.S. House Republicans are not taking the Biden threat seriously.
Even when Trump holds a lead in recent polls, it’s far smaller than his nine-point Texas victory over Clinton in 2016. And even that win pales in comparison to Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s 16-point victory over President Barack Obama in 2012.
To make matters worse, with the collapse of state House Speaker Dennis Bonnen, who is not seeking reelection after a scandal involving a secretly recorded meeting he had with a hardline conservative activist, there is no centralized state House voice to organize the GOP members, delegate resources and most importantly, light a fire under members to take their own campaigns seriously and to support colleagues.
Instead, many Texas Republicans are fairly sanguine about the fall. Mostly, according to interviews, Republicans say they are confident the Democratic expansion into GOP suburbs and exurbs is a strategic blunder. Trump’s recent trip to Texas reinforced enthusiasm in donor circles. Couples paid nearly $581,000 to attend a fundraiser with the president in Dallas.
Moreover, there is supreme confidence in the state GOP infrastructure and Gov. Greg Abbott’s ability to lead the party, even as it is an off-year for his own reelection.
“For the next year, I am campaigning as though I am on the ballot myself,” Abbott previously told the Texas Oil and Gas Association. “I’m gonna be working in collaboration, in support of, the House members who made this past session so successful. I will be working day in, day out, to make sure they get reelected, knowing that the future of Texas itself is at stake.”
State GOP Chairman James Dickey also told The Texas Tribune in a recent interview that his organization took the GOP’s 2018 setbacks seriously. He intends to be on the offensive in the fall, thanks to an emphasis on candidate recruitment and increased infrastructure, and to take Texas off the table at the presidential level.
“Of course we are going to deliver all of Texas’ 38 Electoral College votes for President Trump, after a resounding victory in November,” he said.
Additionally, Texas Republicans say the Democratic base may help the GOP more than anything else. Continued calls for a Green New Deal, universal government-funded health care and, most recently, the “Defund the Police” movement give Republicans an added sense of security in Texas.
That defund slogan implies an aim to eliminate police forces altogether. Democratic leaders will hastily say that is not the intent of the movement. Instead, the idea is to reallocate police funding to social services that would reduce the likelihood of unhealthy engagement between police officers and the communities they serve.
“The left’s demand to defund the police is completely toxic to a vast majority of voters, but it’s quickly become a Democrat litmus test. Democrats created this monster and predictably it’s turned on them,” said Bob Salera, a spokesman for the House GOP campaign arm, who echoed a number of other Texas Republicans’ read of the messaging.
Hanging over all of these calculations is the uncomfortable void of certainty between June and Election Day.
Runoffs must still be resolved. Operatives on both sides eagerly argue how their party will benefit from the elimination of straight ticket voting, but until November it is only speculation. Democrats worry about foreign interference. The economy is as unstable as it has been in most Texans’ lifetimes. And then there is Biden’s coming vice presidential selection.
Biden has already pledged to choose a woman, and some operatives say it would behoove him to choose someone who could appeal to the state’s pragmatic Democrats and disillusioned Republicans. U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, D-California, and U.S. Rep. Val Demmings, D-Florida, are said to be on Biden’s shortlist. But, if the former vice president “comes out with an AOC-type, progressive Democrat,” Patterson warned, “he’s toast [in Texas.]”
The biggest unknown of all, however, is the COVID-19 pandemic and how it will affect campaigning and voting. Given the social upheaval the pandemic has unleashed on American society, it is an ill-advised practice to assume historical patterns will hold in the fall. It’s an open question whether candidates will be able to campaign in person. There are even considerations that candidates may spend Election Day in their own homes on lockdown.
But more than anything, operatives are hedging their assumptions as they’ve watched news cycles and movements take hold, only to be forgotten within weeks. No one interviewed for this story would confidently predict what issues would be on the minds of voters in November.
What is known is that people like Patterson — Republicans who do not like Trump but want to hold the Senate and confirm more Republican judicial appointments — could determine Texas’ political fate in November. And even he is not 100% certain of what he will do.
“As of today, I still intend to vote for Trump,” he said. “After which, on my way to my truck in the parking lot, I might puke.”
Patrick Svitek and Alexa Ura contributed to this report
Disclosure: The Texas Oil and Gas Association has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
NEW YORK (AP) — In a new video posted early Election Day, Beyoncé channels Pamela Anderson in the television program “Baywatch” – red one-piece swimsuit and all – and asks viewers to vote.
In the two-and-a-half-minute clip, set to most of “Bodyguard,” a four-minute cut from her 2024 country album “Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé cosplays as Anderson’s character before concluding with a simple message, written in white text: “Happy Beylloween,” followed by “Vote.”
At a rally for Donald Trump in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the former president spoke dismissively about Beyoncé’s appearance at a Kamala Harris rally in Houston in October, drawing boos for the megastar from his supporters.
“Beyoncé would come in. Everyone’s expecting a couple of songs. There were no songs. There was no happiness,” Trump said.
She did not perform — unlike in 2016, when she performed at a presidential campaign rally for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland – but she endorsed Harris and gave a moving speech, initially joined onstage by her Destiny’s Child bandmate Kelly Rowland.
“I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother,” Beyoncé said.
“A mother who cares deeply about the world my children and all of our children live in, a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies, a world where we’re not divided,” she said at the rally in Houston, her hometown.
“Imagine our daughters growing up seeing what’s possible with no ceilings, no limitations,” she continued. “We must vote, and we need you.”
Harris used the song in July during her first official public appearance as a presidential candidate at her campaign headquarters in Delaware. That same month, Beyoncé’s mother, Tina Knowles, publicly endorsed Harris for president.
Beyoncé gave permission to Harris to use the song, a campaign official who was granted anonymity to discuss private campaign operations confirmed to The Associated Press.
Outside of sports and a “Cold front coming down from Canada,” American news media only report on Canadian events that they believe are, or will be, influential to the US. Therefore, when Justin Trudeau’s announcement, having finally read the room, that Canada will be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted by more than 20 percent and temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half made news south of the border, I knew the American media felt Trudeau’s about-face on immigration was newsworthy because many Americans would relate to Trudeau realizing Canada was accepting more immigrants than it could manage and are hoping their next POTUS will follow Trudeau’s playbook.
Canada, with lots of space and lacking convenient geographical ways for illegal immigrants to enter the country, though still many do, has a global reputation for being incredibly accepting of immigrants. On the surface, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be multicultural havens. However, as the saying goes, “Too much of a good thing is never good,” resulting in a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which you can almost taste in the air. A growing number of Canadians, regardless of their political affiliation, are blaming recent immigrants for causing the housing affordability crises, inflation, rise in crime and unemployment/stagnant wages.
Throughout history, populations have engulfed themselves in a tribal frenzy, a psychological state where people identify strongly with their own group, often leading to a ‘us versus them’ mentality. This has led to quick shifts from complacency to panic and finger-pointing at groups outside their tribe, a phenomenon that is not unique to any particular culture or time period.
My take on why the American news media found Trudeau’s blatantly obvious attempt to save his political career, balancing appeasement between the pitchfork crowd, who want a halt to immigration until Canada gets its house in order, and immigrant voters, who traditionally vote Liberal, newsworthy; the American news media, as do I, believe immigration fatigue is why Kamala Harris is going to lose on November 5th.
Because they frequently get the outcome wrong, I don’t take polls seriously. According to polls in 2014, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were in a dead heat in Ontario, yet Wynne won with more than twice as many seats. In the 2018 Quebec election, most polls had the Coalition Avenir Québec with a 1-to-5-point lead over the governing Liberals. The result: The Coalition Avenir Québec enjoyed a landslide victory, winning 74 of 125 seats. Then there’s how the 2016 US election polls showing Donald Trump didn’t have a chance of winning against Hillary Clinton were ridiculously way off, highlighting the importance of the election day poll and, applicable in this election as it was in 2016, not to discount ‘shy Trump supporters;’ voters who support Trump but are hesitant to express their views publicly due to social or political pressure.
My distrust in polls aside, polls indicate Harris is leading by a few points. One would think that Trump’s many over-the-top shenanigans, which would be entertaining were he not the POTUS or again seeking the Oval Office, would have him far down in the polls. Trump is toe-to-toe with Harris in the polls because his approach to the economy—middle-class Americans are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance during Trump’s first three years in office—and immigration, which Americans are hyper-focused on right now, appeals to many Americans. In his quest to win votes, Trump is doing what anyone seeking political office needs to do: telling the people what they want to hear, strategically using populism—populism that serves your best interests is good populism—to evoke emotional responses. Harris isn’t doing herself any favours, nor moving voters, by going the “But, but… the orange man is bad!” route, while Trump cultivates support from “weird” marginal voting groups.
To Harris’s credit, things could have fallen apart when Biden abruptly stepped aside. Instead, Harris quickly clinched the nomination and had a strong first few weeks, erasing the deficit Biden had given her. The Democratic convention was a success, as was her acceptance speech. Her performance at the September 10th debate with Donald Trump was first-rate.
Harris’ Achilles heel is she’s now making promises she could have made and implemented while VP, making immigration and the economy Harris’ liabilities, especially since she’s been sitting next to Biden, watching the US turn into the circus it has become. These liabilities, basically her only liabilities, negate her stance on abortion, democracy, healthcare, a long-winning issue for Democrats, and Trump’s character. All Harris has offered voters is “feel-good vibes” over substance. In contrast, Trump offers the tangible political tornado (read: steamroll the problems Americans are facing) many Americans seek. With Trump, there’s no doubt that change, admittedly in a messy fashion, will happen. If enough Americans believe the changes he’ll implement will benefit them and their country…
The case against Harris on immigration, at a time when there’s a huge global backlash to immigration, even as the American news media are pointing out, in famously immigrant-friendly Canada, is relatively straightforward: During the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, illegal Southern border crossings increased significantly.
The words illegal immigration, to put it mildly, irks most Americans. On the legal immigration front, according to Forbes, most billion-dollar startups were founded by immigrants. Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name three, have immigrants as CEOs. Immigrants, with tech skills and an entrepreneurial thirst, have kept America leading the world. I like to think that Americans and Canadians understand the best immigration policy is to strategically let enough of these immigrants in who’ll increase GDP and tax base and not rely on social programs. In other words, Americans and Canadians, and arguably citizens of European countries, expect their governments to be more strategic about immigration.
The days of the words on a bronze plaque mounted inside the Statue of Liberty pedestal’s lower level, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” are no longer tolerated. Americans only want immigrants who’ll benefit America.
Does Trump demagogue the immigration issue with xenophobic and racist tropes, many of which are outright lies, such as claiming Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets? Absolutely. However, such unhinged talk signals to Americans who are worried about the steady influx of illegal immigrants into their country that Trump can handle immigration so that it’s beneficial to the country as opposed to being an issue of economic stress.
In many ways, if polls are to be believed, Harris is paying the price for Biden and her lax policies early in their term. Yes, stimulus spending quickly rebuilt the job market, but at the cost of higher inflation. Loosen border policies at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment was increasing was a gross miscalculation, much like Trudeau’s immigration quota increase, and Biden indulging himself in running for re-election should never have happened.
If Trump wins, Democrats will proclaim that everyone is sexist, racist and misogynous, not to mention a likely White Supremacist, and for good measure, they’ll beat the “voter suppression” button. If Harris wins, Trump supporters will repeat voter fraud—since July, Elon Musk has tweeted on Twitter at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad—being widespread.
Regardless of who wins tomorrow, Americans need to cool down; and give the divisive rhetoric a long overdue break. The right to an opinion belongs to everyone. Someone whose opinion differs from yours is not by default sexist, racist, a fascist or anything else; they simply disagree with you. Americans adopting the respectful mindset to agree to disagree would be the best thing they could do for the United States of America.
PHOENIX (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent proponent of debunked public health claims whom Donald Trump has promised to put in charge of health initiatives, said Saturday that Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water on his first day in office if elected president.
Fluoride strengthens teeth and reduces cavities by replacing minerals lost during normal wear and tear, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The addition of low levels of fluoride to drinking water has long been considered one of the greatest public health achievements of the last century.
Kennedy made the declaration Saturday on the social media platform X alongside a variety of claims about the heath effects of fluoride.
“On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water,” Kennedy wrote. Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, “want to Make America Healthy Again,” he added, repeating a phrase Trump often uses and links to Kennedy.
Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds OK to me. You know it’s possible.”
The former president declined to say whether he would seek a Cabinet role for Kennedy, a job that would require Senate confirmation, but added, “He’s going to have a big role in the administration.”
Asked whether banning certain vaccines would be on the table, Trump said he would talk to Kennedy and others about that. Trump described Kennedy as “a very talented guy and has strong views.”
The sudden and unexpected weekend social media post evoked the chaotic policymaking that defined Trump’s White House tenure, when he would issue policy declarations on Twitter at virtually all hours. It also underscored the concerns many experts have about Kennedy, who has long promoted debunked theories about vaccine safety, having influence over U.S. public health.
In 1950, federal officials endorsed water fluoridation to prevent tooth decay, and continued to promote it even after fluoride toothpaste brands hit the market several years later. Though fluoride can come from a number of sources, drinking water is the main source for Americans, researchers say.
Officials lowered their recommendation for drinking water fluoride levels in 2015 to address a tooth condition called fluorosis, that can cause splotches on teeth and was becoming more common in U.S. kids.
In August, a federal agency determined “with moderate confidence” that there is a link between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The National Toxicology Program based its conclusion on studies involving fluoride levels at about twice the recommended limit for drinking water.
A federal judge later cited that study in ordering the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further regulate fluoride in drinking water. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen cautioned that it’s not certain that the amount of fluoride typically added to water is causing lower IQ in kids, but he concluded that mounting research points to an unreasonable risk that it could be. He ordered the EPA to take steps to lower that risk, but didn’t say what those measures should be.
In his X post Saturday, Kennedy tagged Michael Connett, the lead attorney representing the plaintiff in that lawsuit, the environmental advocacy group Food & Water Watch.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine organization has a lawsuit pending against news organizations including The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy is on leave from the group but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
What role Kennedy might hold if Trump wins on Tuesday remains unclear. Kennedy recently told NewsNation that Trump asked him to “reorganize” agencies including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration and some agencies under the Department of Agriculture.
But for now, the former independent presidential candidate has become one of Trump’s top surrogates. Trump frequently mentions having the support of Kennedy, a scion of a Democratic dynasty and the son of former Attorney General Robert Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy.
Kennedy traveled with Trump Friday and spoke at his rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump said Saturday that he told Kennedy: “You can work on food, you can work on anything you want” except oil policy.
“He wants health, he wants women’s health, he wants men’s health, he wants kids, he wants everything,” Trump added.
