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How nervous are investors about the US debt ceiling?

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Traders work the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during the opening bell in New York on May 23, 2023.Getty Images

Negotiations to prevent the US government from running out of money are headed down to the wire.

The Treasury says Congress must agree to raise the debt ceiling by 1 June or the US will run out of cash to pay its bills, resulting in economic disaster.

Top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy says his party and the Democrats remain “far apart”.

Fitch, one of the big credit ratings firms, has said the impasse could prompt it to lower America’s rating.

So with just over a week left – including a holiday weekend – are investors finally getting nervous?

Mark Lindbloom, of California-based Western Asset, which has more than $400bn (£322bn) in assets under management, said concerns were “dominating some conversations” with clients.

“There is a lot of fear-mongering going on” by politicians and the media, he said. “That scares people so yes, people are asking about it.”

The three big stock indexes all slipped on Wednesday, extending falls from a day earlier. Analysts say they expect Wall Street to remain on edge the closer it gets to 1 June.

But for most of the month, markets have remained remarkably unmoved, betting that a deal will get done.

“A lot of investors are looking at this situation thinking they’ve seen this movie before and they know how it ends,” says Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, which works with big money management firms.

“There will be a lot of dire headlines in the media and the politicians will certainly be out there to try to score political points with their base, but there will be some sort of arrangement or agreement before you get to a payment default.”

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives Speaker, Mr McCarthy, once again sought to allay fears that the US could veer off the fiscal cliff next month.

“We’re not going to default,” he told reporters at the Capitol.

But stress over the situation has surfaced in select pockets of the market.

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Investors are demanding higher payments in exchange for holding short-term US government bonds that could be most affected by a default.

Gold, which investors often turn to at times of risk, has received a boost since the start of the year, and buyers have seemed unusually enthusiastic about certain corporate debt.

“This has been a very nuanced market reaction,” said Eric Theoret, global macro strategist at Manulife, noting that the frequency of debt stand-offs over the last decade has many investors betting that this episode, like those, will be little more than a “short-term blip”.

As of Monday, he said, the wider market “was not trading like it is at all concerned”.

Even if a deal is reached, however, market risks remain.

In 2011, the last time Democrats and Republicans appeared at such fiscal odds, the most severe turmoil happened after a deal was struck.

Shares saw their steepest falls since the 2008 financial crisis, amid worries about the impact of the spending cuts made to get the agreement and the implications of a downgrade in America’s bond rating by one credit rating agency.

Despite alarm over the downgrade in 2011, dire predictions that the US could face permanently higher borrowing costs because of the damage to its reputation as a borrower proved unfounded.

But the risks today, with interest rates already rising, could be different.

Analysts say they believe the possibility of another downgrade remains remote, but the three ratings firms have signalled they are closely watching what is happening in Washington.

Fitch Ratings on Wednesday put the US on a negative watch – the first step toward a downgrade – citing “increased political partisanship” and weak governance compared to other countries that hold its top rating.

“The brinkmanship over the debt ceiling, failure of the US authorities to meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges that will lead to rising budget deficits and a growing debt burden signal downside risks to US creditworthiness,” the company said.

“It’s certainly stressful to watch,” said Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning and wealth management at financial firm Charles Schwab, which he said was fielding queries from pensioners and others about how to handle the situation.

He said his team was advising nervous clients to look past the headlines: “If you have a plan in place and your circumstances haven’t changed, stay the course.”

Mr Lindbloom said Western Asset is also trying to reassure clients that a deal will be reached as it has dozens of times before.

“This is political theatre, this is the show,” he said. “It’s ugly at times but it’s how our system works.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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