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Investment

How Should You Have Invested In 2022?

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2022 is drawing to a close, and it’s been a tough for investors. Most asset classes, sectors and countries have seen negative returns for the year so far. That’s against the backdrop of U.S. inflation running at almost 8%. This means that returns in inflation adjusted-terms are notably worse. Nonetheless, there have been some pockets of positive returns. Which assets and strategies have offered the best returns for the year so far?

Short-Term Fixed Income

The fact that short-term government fixed income is among the better performing assets tells you how bad 2022 has been. This can happen in very weak years for markets, with the most recent example being 2018, another weak year.

Longer-term fixed income investments have generally lost money with the sharp rise in interest rates during 2022. However, 12 month government bills now offer a yield of just under 5%, that’s still below the rate of inflation, but this single-digit yield has delivered a better return than most other assets in 2022 so far. Even if yields were practically zero as we entered 2022.

Commodities See Another Strong Year

At the sector level, commodities have once again been a star performer similar to 2021. Energy and mining have been among the best performing sectors of the market delivering strongly positive returns for the year. Still energy and basic materials make up under 10% of the S&P 500. This helps explain why strong returns here have not been sufficient to turn U.S. indices positive.

Oilfield services have also benefited as higher oil prices start to lead to increasing investment in production. Separately, companies in the defense sector have benefited as the Ukraine war boosts spending on military equipment.

Stronger Country Performance From Latin America

At the country level, Latin America has seen some of the better country-level investment performance in 2022. Often these countries have benefited from higher weightings to energy and mining in their stock indices. Brazil, Mexico and Chile have all posted strong performance for 2022 so far.

Turkey has also had a great year, rebounding from a weak 2021. The performance of these countries has been more impressive in the context of a stronger dollar in 2022, which has generally been a drag on returns for foreign markets for U.S. investors.

Looking Forward To 2023

It’s less likely that 2023 will be as bad for investors as 2022. For example after 2018, where returns were generally negative, returns in 2019 were a lot more positive. Still a bad 2023 is not impossible, there have been examples of consecutive negative return years for U.S. markets in the 1930s, 1980s and the 2000s and the S&P 500 still trades at a rather lofty 20x multiple of earnings, which is historically high. Most of the world continues to face risks from inflation, rising interest rates and recessionary fears.

After what will likely be a year of weak returns such as 2022, it’s also important to remember that though diversified portfolios can lose money over the short-term, just as 2022 has shown, over a period of multiple years, returns have historically been more robust. 2022 has been a challenging year for most assets and isn’t necessarily a reason to abandon a well-grounded investment approach.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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