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Investment

How Should You Have Invested In 2022?

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2022 is drawing to a close, and it’s been a tough for investors. Most asset classes, sectors and countries have seen negative returns for the year so far. That’s against the backdrop of U.S. inflation running at almost 8%. This means that returns in inflation adjusted-terms are notably worse. Nonetheless, there have been some pockets of positive returns. Which assets and strategies have offered the best returns for the year so far?

Short-Term Fixed Income

The fact that short-term government fixed income is among the better performing assets tells you how bad 2022 has been. This can happen in very weak years for markets, with the most recent example being 2018, another weak year.

Longer-term fixed income investments have generally lost money with the sharp rise in interest rates during 2022. However, 12 month government bills now offer a yield of just under 5%, that’s still below the rate of inflation, but this single-digit yield has delivered a better return than most other assets in 2022 so far. Even if yields were practically zero as we entered 2022.

Commodities See Another Strong Year

At the sector level, commodities have once again been a star performer similar to 2021. Energy and mining have been among the best performing sectors of the market delivering strongly positive returns for the year. Still energy and basic materials make up under 10% of the S&P 500. This helps explain why strong returns here have not been sufficient to turn U.S. indices positive.

Oilfield services have also benefited as higher oil prices start to lead to increasing investment in production. Separately, companies in the defense sector have benefited as the Ukraine war boosts spending on military equipment.

Stronger Country Performance From Latin America

At the country level, Latin America has seen some of the better country-level investment performance in 2022. Often these countries have benefited from higher weightings to energy and mining in their stock indices. Brazil, Mexico and Chile have all posted strong performance for 2022 so far.

Turkey has also had a great year, rebounding from a weak 2021. The performance of these countries has been more impressive in the context of a stronger dollar in 2022, which has generally been a drag on returns for foreign markets for U.S. investors.

Looking Forward To 2023

It’s less likely that 2023 will be as bad for investors as 2022. For example after 2018, where returns were generally negative, returns in 2019 were a lot more positive. Still a bad 2023 is not impossible, there have been examples of consecutive negative return years for U.S. markets in the 1930s, 1980s and the 2000s and the S&P 500 still trades at a rather lofty 20x multiple of earnings, which is historically high. Most of the world continues to face risks from inflation, rising interest rates and recessionary fears.

After what will likely be a year of weak returns such as 2022, it’s also important to remember that though diversified portfolios can lose money over the short-term, just as 2022 has shown, over a period of multiple years, returns have historically been more robust. 2022 has been a challenging year for most assets and isn’t necessarily a reason to abandon a well-grounded investment approach.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets also climb higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, boosted by strength in the base metal and technology stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 136.18 points at 24,104.68.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 17.13 points at 42,028.72. The S&P 500 index was up 13.95 points at 5,713.89, while the Nasdaq composite was up 96.50 points at 18,014.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.65 cents US compared with 73.86 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 78 cents at US$74.49 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down nine cents at US$2.88 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.30 at US$2,686.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.56 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 4, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down nearly 100 points, U.S. stock markets also lower

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down nearly 100 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in base metal stocks, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 97.97 points at 23,903.58.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 196.05 points at 42,000.47. The S&P 500 index was down 14.66 points at 5,694.88, while the Nasdaq composite was down 24.06 points at 17,901.06.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.88 cents US compared with 74.12 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was up US$2.87 at US$72.97 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up seven cents at US$2.96 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$2.40 at US$2,672.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was down 12 cents at US$4.53 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 3, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Stock market today: Wall Street drifts lower as oil prices continue to climb

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NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are drifting lower, as crude oil prices continue to climb. The S&P 500 was down 0.2% in early trading Thursday following a shaky run where worries about worsening tensions in the Middle East knocked the index off its record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 192 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was off 0.2%. Oil prices rose about another 2% as the world continues to wait to see how Israel will respond to Iran’s missile attack from Tuesday. Treasury yields rose after a report suggested the number of layoffs across the country remain relatively low.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

Wall Street tipped toward small losses early Thursday ahead of some labor market reports that will be closely analyzed by the Federal Reserve as it shifts its focus from inflation toward supporting the broader economy.

Futures for the S&P 500 were 0.1% lower before the bell, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%.

The dominant question hanging over Wall Street has been whether the job market can keep holding up after the Federal Reserve earlier kept interest rates at a two-decade high. The Fed was trying to press the brakes hard enough on the economy to stamp out high inflation.

Stocks are near records in large part on the belief that the U.S. economy will continue to grow now that the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates. The Fed last month lowered its main interest rate for the first time in more than four years and indicated more cuts will arrive through next year.

Coming later Thursday is the Labor Department’s unemployment benefits report, which broadly represents the number of U.S. layoffs in a given week. Layoffs have remained historically low, though started ticking higher beginning in May.

Treasury yields rose after a report Wednesday by ADP Research indicated that hiring by U.S. employers outside the government may have been stronger last month than expected.

That could auger well for the government’s more comprehensive report on the U.S. job market due out Friday, the first since the Fed cut its benchmark lending rate by half a point last month.

Levi shares tumbled 12% in premarket trading after the maker of blue jeans came up short on sales projections and trimmed its fourth-quarter outlook. CEO Michelle Gass said the company was working to address areas of underperformance, including “strategic alternatives” for its Dockers brand.

In German at midday, Germany’s DAX shed 0.3% while the CAC 40 in Paris gave up 0.5%. In London, the FTSE 100 gained 0.4%.

The U.S. dollar gained against the Japanese yen as officials indicated that conditions were not conducive for an interest rate hike.

That helped push Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index higher. It gained 2% to 38,552.06, while the dollar traded at 146.67 Japanese yen, up from 146.41 yen late Wednesday.

A weaker yen is an advantage for major export manufacturers like Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp.

The dollar had been trading around 142 yen after the ruling Liberal Democrats chose Shigeru Ishiba to head the party and succeed Fumio Kishida as prime minister. Ishiba, who took office on Tuesday, had expressed support for the central bank’s recent moves to raise its near-zero benchmark interest rate, which stands at around 0.25%. That led traders to bet that the yen would gain in value.

But after a meeting between Ishiba and Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda, both officials indicated that the central bank did not view further rate hikes as suitable for the economy at this time. That prompted a flurry of selling of yen, which benefits big export manufacturers.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.5% to 22,113.51 as investors sold shares to lock in profits after the benchmark roared 6.2% higher a day earlier on a wave of investor enthusiasm over recent announcements from Beijing about measures to rev up the slowing Chinese economy.

With Shanghai and other markets in China closed for a weeklong holiday, trading has crowded into Hong Kong. Markets in South Korea and Taiwan also were closed on Thursday. India’s Sensex fell 2.1%.

Oil prices rose again as the world waited to see how Israel will respond to Tuesday’s missile attack from Iran.

U.S. benchmark crude oil gained $1.09 to $71.19 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, was up $1 to $74.90 per barrel.

Israel is not a major producer of oil, but Iran is, and a worry is that a broadening war could affect neighboring countries that are also integral to the flow of crude.

Also early Thursday, the euro fell to $1.1042 from $1.1047.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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