NEW YORK (AP) — In a year full of big numbers, with strong gains for stocks and even more fantastic flights for crypto, it was one shrinking number that superseded all.
Inflation, the scourge of the global economy, moderated this year. It’s still relatively high, particularly after the many years of low inflation that everyone enjoyed before U.S. inflation topped 9% two summers ago. But it’s cooled enough to get investors looking ahead to a 2024 where interest rates may be on the way down instead of up. Globally, inflation is estimated to have come down to 6.9% from 8.7% last year.
That led to counterintuitive moments where Wall Street actually cheered weaker reports on the economy, as long as they weren’t too weak, because they kept alive the possibility of a perfect landing for the economy engineered by the Federal Reserve. The goal was for the economy to slow just enough to snuff out high inflation, but not so much that it falls into a recession.
Now, with the economy still growing and expectations rising for cuts to rates coming in 2024, investors have rushed to get ahead of the moves, which can act like steroids for all kinds of markets. U.S. stocks bounced back from their dismal 2022, which was Wall Street’s worst year since the dot-com bubble was deflating two decades earlier.
Much of Wall Street’s run was due to just a small group of stocks, but breadth was better around the world. Stock markets across the Americas, Europe and Asia all rose.
Higher interest rates left their mark, however, notably in the U.S. housing market. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slumped in October to their slowest pace in more than 13 years.
Here’s a look at some of the striking numbers that shaped global financial markets in 2023.
INFLATION 3.1%
The headline inflation rate at the consumer level in November in the U.S. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. The Federal Reserve’s target level is 2%.
2.4%
Overall inflation in the European Union in November, a far cry from a peak of 10.6% in October 2022. Energy prices plunged 11.5% from the same month a year earlier. But food inflation remains stubbornly high at 6.9%.
55%
The price increase for U.S. used cars from February 2020 through the peak in January 2022. From January 2022 through this November, prices for used cars declined 11.5%.
$4
National average price per gallon of milk in November, up 25% from $3.20 just before the pandemic in February 2020.
161%
The rate of inflation in Argentina. The government has responded by slashing the country’s currency value in half, suspending public works and cutting subsidies for gas and electricity among a number of drastic measures.
GLOBAL ECONOMY
22
Consecutive months that the U.S. unemployment rate has come in below 4%, the longest streak since a 27-month run from November 1967 through January 1970. The job market held up even as the Federal Reserve tried to slow the economy to fight inflation.
67
The percentage of Americans that disapproved of President Biden’s handling of the economy in an October poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That sentiment, if it persists, could hamper Biden in his expected election rematch with former president Trump.
9.4%
The estimated decline in investment in China’s property sector from January through October, according to the World Bank. Weakness in the property sector and in global demand for China’s exports, as well as high debt levels and wavering consumer confidence have weighed on the country’s economy.
Expected growth in world trade in 2023, down from 5.2% in 2022 and sixth weakest in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development records going back to 1980. The slump reflects a slowing global economy, growing protectionism and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.
MARKETS7
This small number of stocks was alone responsible for roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500’s return in 2023 through mid-December. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms are also Wall Street’s biggest stocks.
27.3%
The year-to-date gain for Japan’s Nikkei 225 index, as of Dec. 19. It was the Nikkei’s best performance since 2013. In July, the index rose to 33,753.33, its highest level since 1990.
$43,000
Bitcoin surged past this level in December after starting the year below $16,300. It and other cryptocurrencies had tumbled last year as rising rates hit investments seen as particularly risky.
5%
The return for the largest U.S. bond mutual fund, as of Dec. 14. As recently as November, it had been on track for a third straight yearly loss. But excitement about potential cuts to rates sent bond prices soaring.
3
The combined number of days the S&P 500 rose or fell by at least 2% in 2023. The index rose 24.2% through the year, as of Dec. 19. In 2022, a down year for stocks, there were more than 40 such days.
INTEREST RATES5%
The peak for the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, a level not seen since 2007. Bond yields marched higher for much of the year, then reversed sharply over the last two months. The 10-yield stood at 3.92% on Dec. 19.
7.88%
The average rate on a 60-month auto loan in August 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The rate was 5.27% in August 2019.
21.2%
The average credit card interest rate as of August, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s up from 16.3% in 2022 and 14.6% in 2021.
3
The number of times Federal Reserve officials expect to cut interest rates in 2024, according to recently released projections. The Fed raised rates 11 times between March 2022 and July of this year before pausing.
4%
The European Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate. Like the Fed, the ECB kept rates steady at its latest meeting. Unlike the Fed, the ECB did not signal the possibility of rates cuts next year.
HOUSING7.79%
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac. It was the highest average rate since Nov. 11, 2000.
$2,199
The median monthly payment listed by prospective homebuyers on mortgage applications in October, a 9.3% increase from a year earlier.
67%
The share of U.S. homeowners who had a home loan with a fixed rate of 5% or less as of September.
1.15 million
The number of existing U.S. homes on the market at the end of October. That was down 5.7% from October 2022 and is roughly half the historical average going back to 1999. Sales of existing homes fell 20.2% in the first 10 months of the year.
$391,800
The median sales price of a previously occupied U.S. home in October. It was up 3.4% from the same month in 2022.
___
Reporters Paul Wiseman, Chris Rugaber and Tom Krisher contributed.
VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.
Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.
The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.
“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.
“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”
Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.
The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.
The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.
Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.
More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.
Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.
“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.
Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.
“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.
Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.
Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.
Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”
“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.
Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?
Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.
Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.
Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.
Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?
Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.
Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.
Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.
Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?
Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.
Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.
Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.
The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.
He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.
The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.
Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”
The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.
Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
