Tom Bradley: These things are more important than being a brilliant stock picker or market timer, and way easier
I want to take you into the realm of science fiction. You’re getting in a time machine and beaming yourself forward three years to a rainy afternoon in August 2025. You have your account statements spread out on the kitchen table and are reviewing your investments (time travel isn’t always exciting).
Now the question: What would you have to have done in the preceding three years to please the future you? This is science fiction, so I’m going to go inside your head to see what’s putting a smile on your face.
Roadmap: The bad markets in the first half of 2022 made me look at what I was doing. It forced me to clarify what the money was for and when I’d need it. From there, my adviser helped me determine an asset mix for my portfolio that fit with my goals, time frame and risk tolerance. It included all my accounts: guaranteed investment certificates, registered retirement savings plan (RRSP), tax-free savings account (TFSA) and trading account. I can’t believe I waited so long to have this framework for making decisions about my money.
More reason, less reaction: I stopped listening to what my golf buddy was telling me. He’d recommended cannabis, ether and Peloton Interactive Inc., all at the peak of their popularity. I finally realized his portfolio wasn’t doing that well. It seems to have cured me of my fear of missing out.
Regular contributions: Instead of managing from golf game to golf game, I set up a pre-authorized monthly contribution. It’s automatic so I don’t obsess over every purchase. It’s been brilliant, and, come to think of it, I don’t even notice the money coming out of my bank account anymore.
Fun money: I still have a small trading account. My “moonshot” fund, as I call it, is factored into my overall stock allocation. I was doing well for a while, but gave back most of my gains when the market tanked. It’s been a cheap and fun education.
Less but better: It’s true what they say about looking at your investments too much. We react twice as much to bad news as we do good news. Given that there are almost as many down days as up, I was putting myself through the ringer even though I was doing OK. I mostly own funds, so I tried to limit myself to checking my main account once a month. Now, I don’t even do that. I just spend a few minutes every quarter reviewing my account statement.
Don’t blink: It got pretty ugly there for a while. My portfolio was down a lot, and everyone was talking about a recession. But I didn’t need the money (not likely until 2040), so I kept telling myself that lower prices meant buying more shares with my contributions.
Against the grain: I finally did what I promised myself I would. I had read for years about buying when stocks are down and everyone is scared, but had never been able to do it. I used my bonus in 2022 to add to my portfolio when the markets were looking ugly. I actually did it twice. The first purchase was about two months and 10 per cent too early. The second was near the bottom. Both worked out well.
Lingering problems: I procrastinated for years to deal with some nagging issues. I wasn’t paying myself enough (i.e., saving) and was paying my adviser too much (for one call a year at RRSP time). And I was too heavily invested in my former favourites: gold, real estate investment trusts, cannabis and the Ark Innovation Fund. Having a plan forced me to deal with them.
Work in progress: I promised my adviser I’d read a Warren Buffett book, but I haven’t finished it yet. I must say though, the first 200 pages have already changed how I think about investing. Wow.
Hopefully, your review will be this positive in three years. If it is, the self-congratulations should be about process and routine, not short-term results. That’s because being a disciplined investor is a challenge. The task goes on longer than anything you’ll ever do. There are lots of distractions to take you off course, and, of course, the outcome is always uncertain.
Having a disciplined process helps you deal with the short-term noise (and friendly tips) and focus on the things you can control: how much you’re saving; your long-term asset mix; and what you’re paying to invest. These things are more important than being a brilliant stock picker or market timer, and way easier.
Tom Bradley is chair and co-founder of Steadyhand Investment Funds, a company that offers individual investors low-fee investment funds and clear-cut advice. He can be reached at tbradley@steadyhand.com.
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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index dipped lower Friday despite strength in energy stocks, while U.S. markets were mixed as the Dow eked out another record but tech stocks dragged.
The mood Friday was mixed after a strong week for equities in both Canada and the U.S., said Andrew Buntain, vice-president and portfolio manager at Fiduciary Trust Canada.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 77.01 points at 23,956.82, one day after it . It closed over 24,000 for the first time on Thursday.
The strength this past week wasn’t just in North American markets, noted Buntain, as Chinese stocks enjoyed a rally after the country’s central banks announced a suite of measures intended to boost the economy.
Meanwhile, an undercurrent of broadening strength continued this week as investors spread out their interest beyond a narrow set of tech giants, said Buntain.
“Some of the sectors that have been ignored for several years have been some of the better performers this year,” he said.
“We’re very encouraged by that.”
In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 137.89 points at 42,313. The S&P 500 index was down 7.20 points at 5,738.17 after setting an all-time high on Thursday, while the Nasdaq composite was down 70.70 points at 18,119.59.
A report Friday on one of the U.S. central bank’s preferred measures of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — showed continued cooling.
The Federal Reserve started lowering its key interest rate last week, and is expected to keep going this fall and into 2025.
However, the Fed’s next interest rate decision isn’t until November, noted Buntain, so there’s plenty of data for the central bank to take in yet — including next week’s labour report.
The job market has been an increasingly key focus for the central bank after recent reports showed cooling in that area of the economy. Friday’s report also showed consumer spending in August didn’t meet economists’ expectations.
In Canada, where the Bank of Canada is set for its next rate decision later in October, Friday brought a GDP report that was a little stronger than expected, said Buntain.
“The Bank of Canada has already delivered three cuts and signalled maybe some further reductions,” he said.
If inflation continues to move lower, Buntain added, the Bank of Canada could even announce an outsized half-percentage-point cut, echoing the Fed’s move last week.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.08 cents US compared with 74.22 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 51 cents at US$68.18 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up 15 cents at US$2.90 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$26.80 at US$2,668.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.60 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.
“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.
“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.
Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.
Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.
The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.
The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.
The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”
North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.
“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.
“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”
The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.
However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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