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How To Stop The Global Economy From Plunging Into A Depression? – Forbes

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There is little doubt that the global economy is in recession, which is defined by the IMF as growing less than 2% a year. Looming on the horizon is the even darker threat: global depression, which is characterized by a decline in real GDP exceeding 10% in more than one major economy and lasting for two or more years. This is the specter that governments are trying to stave off. In the U.S. and Europe, they are moving faster and throwing more resources at it than they did in response to the global financial crisis. The question is whether they will succeed. The answer hinges on knowing what stands between the current recession and a more catastrophic depression. 

The economic ravages caused by Covid-19 began with a disruption of supply that quickly weakened demand. It turns out that much of the economic impact of Covid-19 is due to the very measures needed to control the pandemic. When cities are locked down and people stay home to avoid contact with others, all economic activities in industries involving people in close proximity come to a halt. Consumer spending crashes because people are either too fearful or unable to go out and spend. As a consequence, businesses are in jeopardy; their revenues are drying up faster than they can cut costs, and many will have no choice but to lay off workers or even shut down.

The current recession will turn into a depression if business closures and layoffs spread unchecked, changing a temporary dip into a total collapse of demand that derails the economy. A self-reinforcing feedback loop will then lock revenue-starved companies and salary-starved households into a destructive, downward spiral—a global depression.

What stands between the current recession and a global depression is the survival of the business sector. Government efforts must therefore focus on supporting the business sector with policies that are direct, timely and effective. Tax holidays, rollover of loans, and suspension of payments of interest, rent and fees are a start.

What is really needed is for governments to help pay a portion of salaries so companies don’t have to lay off their workers as revenues dwindle. This will break the link between the initial decline in demand and a much more devastating economy-wide crash. Large companies and small businesses need help equally. Bernie Sanders and his comrades may rail against such a policy as a case of government of bailing out big businesses, but what they don’t understand is that large companies are key customers for many small businesses. And if big companies go down, small businesses will go down with them. And while giving every adult American $1,200 may be an expedient and certainly a popular measure for President Trump, it doesn’t do much to help households whose breadwinners are rendered jobless.

Time is running out. Job losses are rising rapidly. The U.S. Department of Labor reported March 26 that jobless claims that week rose to a record 3.3 million, up from 282,000 the week before. Ireland went from nearly full employment in February to losing an equivalent of 48% of all new jobs created in the last five years in March, according to Dublin’s Economic and Social Research Institute.

Governments may be throwing the kitchen sink at the problem, but the outcome depends on how, when and where the money is spent. The survival of the business sector is our best hope in warding off a global depression. We must ensure that it does.

Yuwa Hedrick-Wong is Chief Economics Commentator for Forbes Asia. He is also a visiting scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. Having worked as an economist across the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa in the past 25 years, he regularly writes columns about the global economy for Forbes Asia. Views expressed are his own. He can be reached at: yuwa@forbesasia.com.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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