While political rivals are forecasting economic devastation if former Vice President Joe Biden were to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations, many economists and tax analysts who have modeled outcomes have a different take.
The net effect of Biden’s proposals, when analyzed independently of spending and economic policies, would be negative economic growth ranging from -0.16% to -1.62% over the next 10 years, according to analyses by the American Enterprise Institute and Tax Foundation.
Slowed growth is attributed to higher taxes on the very wealthy, and major changes to businesses taxation, including an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, a doubling of the tax rate on certain income earned by foreign subsidiaries of U.S. corporations, and elimination of a 20% deduction for owners of pass-through entities with income of more than $400,000.
But when factoring in spending and economic plans—including those for trade, immigration, education, housing, health care, and other policies—the outlook varies by scenario.
An analysis by Moody’s Analytics finds that if Biden wins and Democrats win a majority in both the Senate and the House and enact his plans, average annual economic growth would be 2.9% and average annual wage growth would be 0.9% through 2030.
Moody’s finds that some 18.6 million jobs would be created over Biden’s four-year term, and full employment would be reached in the second half of 2022. Full employment is typically defined as an unemployment rate under 5%. It is about 8% today.
In contrast, if President Donald Trump wins the election and Republicans win the majority in both houses of Congress, the economic picture dims: 10-year economic growth would average 2.4%, wages would grow by 0.7% over a decade, 11.2 million jobs would be created over four years, and full employment would be reached in 2024.
If Congress maintains its split majority, with Republicans dominating the Senate and the Democrats in the House, the economic outcomes will be similar whether Biden’s or Trump’s tax policies are in effect—though somewhat more favorable under Biden’s presidency, according to Moody’s.
Analyses that compare the two candidates’ plans are handicapped by a lack of detail issued by Trump. For example, while he has stated that he supports a capital-gains tax cut, none of the analyses factor this in.
Generally speaking, however, capital-gains tax cuts don’t typically help the economy, says Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation. “There is no evidence that capital-gains tax cuts are growth-enhancing.”
Helping Small Business And Getting The Economy Back On Track – StrathmoreNow.com
Galloway: to oxygenate economy, break up Big Tech – CNN
Consortium of Indigenous chiefs seeking a way to participate in cannabis economy – Maple Ridge News
Indigenous communities have been left out of the Canadian cannabis economy, and a group of Indigenous chiefs are out to change that for the good of their communities.
Chief Robert Gladstone of Shxwha:y First Nation says a consortium they’re calling “All Nations Chiefs” has worked for months to negotiate an agreement for on-reserve cannabis distribution directly with the province – but to no avail.
“It’s been two years since the rollout where they did not consult adequately with First Nations,” said Gladstone. “We are trying to find a way to participate in this new economy.”
To get there, they’ve organized an online forum with All Nations Chiefs from the communities of Shxwha:y, Cheam, Soowahlie and Sq’ewlets for the morning of Dec. 2. Organizers have invited Premier John Horgan, stakeholders, and the public to join them in the virtual dialogue on the cannabis question.
Gladstone described the recalcitrance from provincial counterparts as “another pathway out of poverty blocked” for First Nations communities across Canada, noting that only four per cent of Canadian cannabis licences are Indigenous-affiliated.
“That four per cent should be disturbing to everyone,” he said.
The group has also launched a petition that had almost 1,500 signatures by Nov. 27.
“We are asking Honourable Premier Horgan to take real action towards reconciliation and honour his government’s platform commitment to the UN Declaration of Indigenous Rights (UNDRIP) by allowing First Nations to participate in B.C.’s cannabis industry,” according to the petition preamble.
Since legalization, local First Nations leaders have been trying to control their own their destinies by finding a way to participate in the emerging economy “on a nation-to-nation basis,” the chief said.
Shxwha:y officials decided to go the route of applying for a Section 119 licence agreement under the Cannabis Control and Licensing Agreement Act, Chief Gladstone explained.
A Section 119 licence is required to legally distribute cannabis from retail stores on reserve land, and involve the province entering into agreements with individual First Nations, which supersede the Act. Only one community has signed such an agreement to date, the Williams Lake Indian Band. The Shxwha:y application used the Williams Lake vision as their model.
Some of the on-reserve cannabis stores in the area without provincial licensing have been operating in what government officials would describe as a grey area legally, while leaders are trying to negotiate a better way, with formal applications pending.
They started on-reserve stores under the inherent laws of their nation rather than under provincial licensing, some by enacting cannabis laws through land codes.
Those models differ from the route chosen by the owners of the first fully licensed cannabis store on reserve, which is The Kure on the Skwah reserve.
“The ultimate goal is to codify and harmonize the laws and regulations among all three levels of government,” Gladstone underlined.
But months later they are stymied, with no timeline, feedback or any response from the provincial government on their application. So they’re stepping up the pressure.
“We are reaching out. If they don’t answer, it’s a direct way of saying they are not interested in working toward a government-to-government relationship. There’s just no other way to interpret this.”
The online forum next Wednesday will focus on solutions to bring inclusivity and diversity to the nascent cannabis sector with First Nations involvement.
They feel they’ve put in the work to give the province a workable model.
“Now all we ask is recognition for our inherent right to trade and barter,” Gladstone said.
Chief Gladstone tells a story of how cannabis has changed everything in his village and beyond.
In total more than 100 people are working in the on-reserve stores around the Chilliwack area.
“These workers are not on CERB or social assistance,” Gladstone said.
As of a couple of years ago there were only four people working in Shxwha:y village. Now there are 13 jobs being held down currently at the store, and another 30 at the cultivation facility, where All Nations Cannabis Corp. is a Health Canada licensed cultivator and licensed producer applicant.
“It’s changed the standard of living for many in our village, going from abject poverty to a tier closer to the middle class,” Gladstone said. “So this is a success story.
“What we’re saying to the province is: ‘Don’t destroy this miracle of economic revival.’
“We’re just asking for co-operation.”
Do you have something to add to this story, or something else we should report on? Email:
Want to support local journalism during the pandemic? Make a donation here.
COVID-19 cases in Canada remain on troubling course, Tam says, amid rising numbers – CP24 Toronto's Breaking News
This is how you can really help reduce greenhouse gas emissions – CTV News
Advisory issued about potential COVID-19 exposure at three spots in HRM – HalifaxToday.ca
Silver investment demand jumped 12% in 2019
Iran anticipates renewed protests amid social media shutdown
Galaxy M31 July 2020 security update brings Glance, a content-driven lockscreen wallpaper service
Tech22 hours ago
Apple iPhone 12 Cyber Monday deals 2020: The best deals right now – Tom's Guide
Media15 hours ago
My golden rule for social media: talk trash to your heart’s content, but do it in private – The Guardian
Media20 hours ago
Alternative social media platforms fuel polarization and conspiracies | Watch News Videos Online – Globalnews.ca
Economy24 hours ago
India Enters Recession as Virus Pummels No. 3 Asian Economy – Yahoo Canada Finance
Science24 hours ago
Province Announces Windsor Essex Is Moving To Red 'Control' Status – windsoriteDOTca News
Sports12 hours ago
The Most Exciting Canadian Sports Markets To Bet On In 2020
Economy23 hours ago
Monday's fall economic statement will try to bridge current and future needs – iPolitics.ca
Tech15 hours ago
The best Cyber Monday deals 2020 – Tom's Guide