Talk to Wisconsin dairy farmers about the ground-shifting events in their industry and it’s striking how rarely the new trade deal with Canada comes up.
That might surprise anyone who’s heard the dairy liberalization in the new North American trade agreement — which gave U.S. producers a bit more access to Canada’s tightly controlled dairy market, and limited the Canadian sector’s ability to export dairy products to the U.S. — described as a major development.
The 2018 deal has been characterized that way on both sides of the border: by Canadians unhappy with the new NAFTA, and in the U.S. by President Donald Trump as he campaigns in Wisconsin, a key presidential election swing state and dairy-producing region.
It could soon heat up again as a political issue. The U.S. has hinted its first lawsuit against Canada under the new pact might involve dairy, as Democrat and Republican politicians have written letters accusing Canada of unfairly implementing the deal in a way that discriminates against U.S. farmers.
But right now, down on the farm, based on conversations with American dairy operators of different political stripes, trade with Canada ranks low on the hierarchy of priorities.
America’s huge dairy sector generates tens of billions in revenue each year and regularly deals with abrupt and brutal price swings that dwarf the few hundred million in new revenues expected from Canada.
“It’s a drop in the bucket,” said Sarah Lloyd, a Democrat and dairy farmer who lives two hours west of Milwaukee, describing the new Canadian market access.
A tractor passes a sign expressing support for Wisconsin’s dairy farmers in Watertown, west of Milwaukee, on Aug. 18, 2020. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
A third-generation dairy farmer near Kenosha, who voted for Trump in 2016 and said he probably will again, Dave Daniels, said the new pact might help the overall market a bit.
But, “On my own bottom line it’s probably not going to make a lot of difference,” he said.
Lloyd Holterman said he’s heard detailed opinions about this agreement in one place — in Canada, when he visits for dairy conferences.
“They seemed to know more about it [in Canada] than I knew. [Farmers there] were upset … so I figured we probably got the better end of the deal,” said Holterman, who prefers not to divulge his voting intentions
“I don’t know how big a deal it was, really. … That’s a small [market in Canada].”
Dairy farmers in Wisconsin have considerable political power this year.
Why Trump needs Wisconsin farmers
Wisconsin, a swing state, will be decided not just by whether Trump wins a majority of votes in the rural, milk-producing areas — as he almost certainly will.
The other factor is whether Trump racks up enough of a lead here to offset his likely deficits in urban areas, like Milwaukee and Madison.
And the dairy deal with Canada is central to Trump’s re-election message here.
Trump supporters greeted Vice President Mike Pence as his motorcade headed to a dairy farm in Onalaska, Wis., on July 17 to promote the new North American trade deal. (Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel via AP)
In speeches last month in different parts of the country, Trump promoted the new NAFTA as a turning point — he said, in one, that Canada used to take advantage of the U.S. when it came to dairy, “but not anymore.”
At the Republican convention, his daughter Ivanka described the president constantly asking about dairy when getting briefed on the NAFTA negotiations: “[He would say], ‘Don’t let down those dairy farmers I met in Wisconsin. I don’t want them to like this deal; I want them to love it.”
Even if the Wisconsin farmers have limited expectations for the agreement, they do appear to like the fact a deal has been made. The industry is craving stability after a wild few years, and this pact helps in that regard.
WATCH | In 2017, Trump said Canada was doing ‘very unfair things’ to U.S. dairy farmers
U.S. president’s new ‘Buy American and Hire American’ executive order targets Canada’s dairy industry 1:24
More than half of U.S. dairy farms shut down over the last two decades and 2018 and 2019 were some of the hardest years on record.
The destabilizing forces included a dramatic plunge in prices. Whole milk prices dropped 33 per cent from 2014 to 2016, then remained low for years. Milk consumption has also declined. And there’s never-ending pressure to keep growing, keep innovating — or die.
“Highs, lows, highs, lows,” said Daphne Holterman, Lloyd’s wife, describing the unpredictability of U.S. dairy prices.
American farmers were happy it set limits on Canadians’ ability to sell protein powders on world markets: they argued that Canada was damaging the entire industry by dumping excess product at artificially low prices.
That’s the issue that first caught Trump’s attention in 2017 when dozens of Wisconsin farms lost their contract with a processor who couldn’t compete with what they perceive to be non-market Canadian rates.
“That hit Wisconsin pretty much right in the jaw,” Daniels said.
The U.S. dairy industry is huge. Its trade volume with Canada is, and will continue to be, comparably minor. (CBC News)
The agreement also gave Americans more access to dairy sales in Canada, which tightly controls the supply and prices of dairy products.
The U.S. International Trade Commission, tasked by Congress with analyzing the effect of American trade agreements, estimated that the pact would increase U.S. dairy output by a mere 0.1 per cent.
Lloyd Holterman, who farms near Milwaukee, calls U.S. dairy competition ‘brutal,’ with survival requiring constant innovation. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
It suggested exports to Canada would grow $227 million a year — which is an increase of exports to Canada of one-quarter to one-half of recent estimated annual volumes. That’s a significant change for Canada.
But it’s closer to pocket change for the U.S. American dairy farms generated approximately $40 billion in cash receipts last year.
A price plunge, then a pandemic
Dairy was hit hard by the commodities bust that sent prices plunging in the mid-2010s, touching everything from oil to food crops.
Then just as things seemed to be picking up after last year, the pandemic struck. Purchases froze up at schools, restaurants and workplaces, which account for nearly half of U.S. dairy consumption.
“The cows didn’t get the memo that said, ‘Hey, we’ve got COVID, slow down,'” said Mark Stephenson, a dairy-markets expert at the University of Wisconsin.
A view of Dave Daniels’ farm near Kenosha, Wis., which has stayed profitable by consolidating assets with neighbours and investing together in new technology. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
“We had a lot of milk that needed to be processed, that needed to have a home. And it’s not like corn — you obviously can’t keep it in the bin for a while, until you find a sale. It has to go.”
Farmers have long had to innovate, or get out of the business. Daniels and the Holtermans describe how they’ve merged their farms with partners, pooled their resources to buy better machines, and done everything from breed longer-living cows to installing equipment that cut the cost of feeding and veterinary services.
Lloyd Holterman said business is now picking up again. He got twice as much revenue last month as in May — people cooking at home are now using more butter, milk and cheese, and products originally destined for commercial establishments are being repackaged for home use.
Half the cost of producing milk goes to feeding the cows. The Holtermans, who run this farm west of Milwaukee, reduced long-term expenses by investing in this grain-feeding system. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
“[Tough times are] an opportunity to get better,” he said. “When things are really good, you get sloppy. … So we’ve actually done pretty well through the downturn.”
But he concedes the constant pressure to innovate can be tough.
“Our system of dairy production is brutal. It’s brutal. Nobody feels sorry for anybody that goes broke,” Holterman said. “That’s the way business is here. … The positive side is we have high quality and cheap prices.”
Some American farmers, including Sarah Lloyd, wish their industry were a bit more stable and are pushing for the U.S. to adopt Canadian-style controls on prices and supply volumes.
But the Holtermans and Daniels doubt that idea will fly in the U.S.; they say they prefer the less-regulated American system, arguing it encourages competition and innovation.
The big export market: Mexico
Another way U.S. farmers have survived the lean years is by expanding trade: export volumes have grown, over a generation, from negligible amounts to 18 per cent of total U.S. dairy production.
The largest market by far for U.S. dairy exports is Mexico, with Canada second.
Wisconsin dairy farmers were more worried that the bigger market to the south might slip away, amid tensions between Trump and Mexico, and his threats to rip up NAFTA.
“There was some offensive things said about Mexico as a country,” Lloyd Holterman said. “They, rightly, took offence to that.”
Sarah Lloyd, right, seen here with her husband Nels Nelson in 2017 on their farm two hours west of Milwaukee, calls the new Canada exports ‘a drop in the bucket’ compared to the major issues that need to change in her industry. (Marie Claudet/CBC)
But a representative of the U.S. dairy lobby in Washington said the new trade with Canada should make a difference. She said a tiny change in markets can have a ripple-effect on prices.
Now, said Shawna Morris, vice-president for trade policy at the U.S. National Milk Producers Federation, people will be scrutinizing whether Canada, in fact, lets more dairy in.
She and others were concerned that Canada has, in past trade agreements and in this one, made it too difficult for foreign companies to access new import quotas, leaving them unused.
Fair market access for our dairy industry was a key pillar of the <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/USMCA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#USMCA</a>. I’m calling on <a href=”https://twitter.com/USDA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@USDA</a> and <a href=”https://twitter.com/USTradeRep?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@USTradeRep</a> to hold Canada and Mexico accountable for their trade commitments to Iowa’s dairy farmers. <a href=”https://t.co/WddUf9Bbos”>pic.twitter.com/WddUf9Bbos</a>
“The U.S. negotiated really hard for this. It’s not full access to the Canadian market. It’s nowhere even close to it. But we definitely want to make sure we get what we thought we had on paper.”
Election predictions
So does this deal help Trump win Wisconsin again? Trump carried the state by a margin of one per cent last time, and polls show him behind now.
Daniels says it’s going to be tough.
Daphne Holterman, who runs a farm with her husband Lloyd near Milwaukee, says prices keep fluctuating wildly. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
What he hears from people in his area is that those who voted for Trump last time will vote for him again; he suspects, however, that Democratic turnout will spike in cities from its low 2016 level.
“It’s going to be a pretty slim margin if he does [win],” Daniels said.
Lloyd Holterman said he likes what Trump has done on taxes and deregulation. He assumes the state will be a tossup, with the vast majority voting as they did in 2016.
But “I can’t even predict,” he said. “48 hours is an eternity.”
OTTAWA, W.Va. – U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s promise launch a mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants has the Canadian government looking at its own border.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Friday the issue is one of two “points of focus” for a recently revived cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations.
Freeland said she has also been speaking to premiers about the issue this week.
“I do want Canadians to know it is one of our two central points of focus. Ministers are working hard on it, and we absolutely believe that it’s an issue that Canadians are concerned about, Canadians are right to be concerned about it,” Freeland said, after the committee met for the first time since Trump left office in 2021.
She did not provide any details of the plan ministers are working on.
Public Safety Minister Dominic Leblanc, whose portfolio includes responsibility for the Canada Border Services Agency, co-chairs the committee. Freeland said that highlights the importance of border security to Canada-U.S. relations.
There was a significant increase in the number of irregular border crossings between 2016 and 2023, which the RCMP attributed in part to the policies of the first Trump administration.
The national police service said it has been working through multiple scenarios in case there is a change in irregular migration after Trump takes office once again, and any response to a “sudden increase in irregular migration” will be co-ordinated with border security and immigration officials.
However, Syed Hussan with the Migrant Rights Network said he does not anticipate a massive influx of people coming into Canada, chalking the current discussion up to anti-migrant panic.
“I’m not saying there won’t be some exceptions, that people will continue to cross. But here’s the thing, if you look at the people crossing currently into the U.S. from the Mexico border, these are mostly people who are recrossing post-deportation. The reason for that is, is that people have families and communities and jobs. So it seems very unlikely that people are going to move here,” he said.
Since the Safe Third Country Agreement was modified last year, far fewer people are making refugee claims in Canada through irregular border crossings.
The agreement between Canada and the U.S. acknowledges that both countries are safe places for refugees, and stipulates that asylum seekers must make a refugee claim in the country where they first arrive.
The number of people claiming asylum in Canada after coming through an irregular border crossing from the U.S. peaked at 14,000 between January and March 2023.
At that time, the rule was changed to only allow for refugee claims at regular ports of entry, with some specific exemptions.
This closed a loophole that had seen tens of thousands of people enter Canada at Roxham Road in Quebec between 2017 and 2023.
In the first six months of 2024, fewer than 700 people made refugee claims at irregular crossings.
There are 34,000 people waiting to have their refugee claims processed in Canada, according to government data.
In the first 10 months of this year, U.S. border officials recorded nearly 200,000 encounters with people making irregular crossings from Canada. Around 27,000 encounters took place at the border during the first 10 months of 2021.
Hussan said the change to the Safe Third Country Agreement made it less likely people will risk potentially dangerous crossings into Canada.
“Trying to make a life in Canada, it’s actually really difficult. It’s more difficult to be an undocumented person in Canada than the U.S. There’s actually more services in the U.S. currently, more access to jobs,” Hussan said.
Toronto-based immigration lawyer Robert Blanshay said he is receiving “tons and tons” of emails from Americans looking at possibly relocating to Canada since Trump won the election early Wednesday.
He estimates that about half are coming from members of the LGBTQ+ community.
“I spoke to a guy yesterday, he and his partner from Kansas City. And he said to me, ‘You know, things weren’t so hunky-dory here in Kansas City being gay to begin with. The entire political climate is just too scary for us,'” Blanshay said.
Blanshay said he advised the man he would likely not be eligible for express entry into Canada because he is at retirement age.
He also said many Americans contacted him to inquire about moving north of the border after Trump’s first electoral victory, but like last time, he does not anticipate many will actually follow through.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024
VANCOUVER – The British Columbia New Democrats have a majority government of 47 seats after a recount in the riding of Surrey-Guildford gave the party’s candidate 22 more votes than the provincial Conservatives.
Confirmation of victory for Premier David Eby’s party comes nearly three weeks after election night when no majority could be declared.
Garry Begg of the NDP had officially gone into the recount yesterday with a 27-vote lead, although British Columbia’s chief electoral officer had said on Tuesday there were 28 unreported votes and these had reduced the margin to 21.
There are ongoing recounts in Kelowna Centre and Prince George-Mackenzie, but these races are led by John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives and the outcomes will not change the majority status for the New Democrats.
The Election Act says the deadline to appeal results after a judicial recount must be filed with the court within two days after they are declared, but Andrew Watson with Elections BC says that due to Remembrance Day on Monday, that period ends at 4 p.m. Tuesday.
Eby has said his new cabinet will be announced on Nov. 18, with the 44 members of the Opposition caucus and two members from the B.C. Greens to be sworn in Nov. 12 and the New Democrat members of the legislature to be sworn in the next day.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
MONTREAL – The employers association at the Port of Montreal has issued the dockworkers’ union a “final, comprehensive offer,” threatening to lock out workers at 9 p.m. Sunday if a deal isn’t reached.
The Maritime Employers Association says its new offer includes a three per cent salary increase per year for four years and a 3.5 per cent increase for the two subsequent years. It says the offer would bring the total average compensation package of a longshore worker at the Port of Montreal to more than $200,000 per year at the end of the contract.
“The MEA agrees to this significant compensation increase in view of the availability required from its employees,” it wrote Thursday evening in a news release.
The association added that it is asking longshore workers to provide at least one hour’s notice when they will be absent from a shift — instead of one minute — to help reduce management issues “which have a major effect on daily operations.”
Syndicat des débardeurs du port de Montréal, which represents nearly 1,200 longshore workers, launched a partial unlimited strike on Oct. 31, which has paralyzed two terminals that represent 40 per cent of the port’s total container handling capacity.
A complete strike on overtime, affecting the whole port, began on Oct. 10.
The union has said it will accept the same increases that were granted to its counterparts in Halifax or Vancouver — 20 per cent over four years. It is also concerned with scheduling and work-life balance. Workers have been without a collective agreement since Dec. 31, 2023.
Only essential services and activities unrelated to longshoring will continue at the port after 9 p.m. Sunday in the event of a lockout, the employer said.
The ongoing dispute has had major impacts at Canada’s second-biggest port, which moves some $400 million in goods every day.
On Thursday, Montreal port authority CEO Julie Gascon reiterated her call for federal intervention to end the dispute, which has left all container handling capacity at international terminals at “a standstill.”
“I believe that the best agreements are negotiated at the table,” she said in a news release. “But let’s face it, there are no negotiations, and the government must act by offering both sides a path to true industrial peace.”
Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon issued a statement Thursday, prior to the lockout notice, in which he criticized the slow pace of talks at the ports in Montreal and British Columbia, where more than 700 unionized port workers have been locked out since Nov. 4.
“Both sets of talks are progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved,” he wrote on the X social media platform.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
