Politics

How Ukraine Is Upending European Politics – The Atlantic

Published

3 years ago

April 3, 2022

Europe is about to hold two major elections: In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has ruled the country for the past 12 years, and Hungarian democracy itself are on the ballot; in France, voters will decide between Emmanuel Macron and a new, likely more extreme leadership.

Under normal circumstances, such contests would be nationally focused affairs driven by domestic factors such as the economy, immigration, and the response to the pandemic. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed all of that. Suddenly, the French election has become about who can best lead the country through Europe’s first major war in decades. In Hungary, an election that would have determined the country’s path toward further autocracy or liberal democracy has been overshadowed by talk of war and peace and East versus West.

The war in Ukraine has entirely upended European politics: Germany is abandoning taboos against defense spending, Finland and Sweden are rethinking their stance toward Russia and NATO, and Poland is transforming itself from pariah to partner in Brussels. The two upcoming elections offer additional signs of how the continent’s residents—already affected by increasing energy prices and millions of refugees fleeing Ukraine—are responding to a war that seems unlikely to end anytime soon.

The most immediate outcome will be seen in Hungary, which goes to the polls today. For months, this election was largely framed as a referendum on Orbán, the greatest challenge to his rule in more than a decade. Unlike in previous elections, when he faced a mostly fractured opposition, this time Orbán is contending with a coalition of six parties that have banded together with the explicit goal of unseating him. In the opposition’s telling, this was an election about saving Hungarian democracy from Orbán’s autocratic impulses. For Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party, it was about preserving Hungary as a defender of traditional values and preventing interference from the so-called international left.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, kicking off a continental crisis and sending millions of Ukrainian refugees into neighboring countries, including Hungary, both Orbán and his opponents had to quickly adapt their messaging. “The war in Ukraine completely transformed the electoral campaign,” András Bíró-Nagy, the director of the Policy Solutions think tank in Budapest, told me. The opposition capitalized on Orbán’s status as Vladimir Putin’s last friend in Europe; the prime minister has sought to strike a balance between supporting the European consensus on Ukraine and not burning bridges with Moscow. As a result, Hungarian voters are now faced with “two competing narratives,” Bíró-Nagy said. While the opposition tries to characterize the election as a choice between aligning Hungary with Russia and aligning it with NATO and the West, “Orbán is desperately trying to reframe the events around the need for peace and security of the Hungarian people in such turbulent times.” The prime minister has ruled out supplying arms to Ukraine or allowing Ukraine-bound weapons to pass through Hungary, in contrast to many of his European partners. He has also rejected calls for an embargo on Russian energy supplies, citing a potential impact on Hungarian families.

These positions have made Orbán something of a pariah in Europe, and have isolated Hungary from its traditional allies in Poland and the Czech Republic, whose defense ministers refused to attend a meeting with their Hungarian counterpart last week over Budapest’s stance on Ukraine. Orbán’s careful balancing act even earned direct condemnation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who challenged Orbán to “decide who you are with.” (The Hungarian government subsequently accused the Ukrainian government of seeking to influence the election.)

But as far as the election is concerned, Orbán’s strategy just might work. Fidesz has maintained a slim lead over the opposition, according to recent polls. The fact that the Hungarian electoral system is already gerrymandered in Fidesz’s favor (not to mention Orbán’s disproportionate control over the country’s media and state funds) makes the prospect of an upset unlikely. And because of the uncertainty surrounding the war, “people will choose the devil they know,” István Kiss, the executive director of Budapest’s conservative Danube Institute and a former Fidesz adviser, told me.

Ukraine is similarly dominating the electoral narrative in France, though you wouldn’t necessarily know it from being there. Although the first round of the contest is only a week away, “it feels like there is no presidential campaign going on in France right now,” Georgina Wright, the director of the Europe program at Paris’s Institut Montaigne, told me. Just as in Hungary, “Ukraine has completely overshadowed the election.”

Although French voters rarely go to the polls with foreign policy at the front of their mind, the war has managed to buck this trend, owing at least in part to the fact that France has played a leading role in the West’s diplomatic wrangling with Russia. Macron not only traveled to Moscow in the weeks ahead of the war, in a last-ditch (and ultimately fruitless) effort to stave off a Russian invasion, but he has since fielded dozens of calls from both Putin and Zelensky in pursuit of a diplomatic resolution. Because of Russia’s role as a major continental gas supplier, the war will have a huge impact on European economies. “The French are looking at who can lead them through this crisis,” Wright said, “and there’s a sense that Macron is probably the only person able to do that.”

It helps that Macron is perhaps the only viable candidate who hasn’t been seen as too sympathetic to the Kremlin or its talking points. Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader who has reprised her role as Macron’s main rival, has made no secret of her affinity for Putin or of his investments in her previous campaigns. Despite her condemnation of the invasion, a photo of Le Pen with Putin still features in her campaign brochures. Meanwhile, the ascendant far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has long advocated for France to withdraw from NATO, has had to walk back comments playing down the threat posed by Moscow.

Still, the polls are projecting a smaller margin of victory for Macron in a rematch with Le Pen compared with their 2017 runoff, which is indicative of how the French president’s appeal has worn off after five years in power.

Just as the war in Ukraine has affected these elections, their outcomes will invariably have an effect on Ukraine too—specifically on how Europe responds to the crisis there, whether it maintains the status quo or shifts its policy. Macron winning would represent a victory for those who have advocated for a stronger Europe, a position of his that has largely been vindicated by the Russian invasion. And should Orbán retain power, as is likely, that would signal further challenges for European consensus on Russia, particularly when it comes to reducing the continent’s reliance on Russian oil and gas.

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Politics

‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

Published

2 days ago

November 7, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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