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Economy

If we want the economy to recover, we need to bail out tenants and property owners, too – Financial Post

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By Luc Vallée

The federal government recently introduced a plan to encourage businesses to retain workers by subsidizing 75 per cent of their wages. By providing laid-off and self-isolating workers with an alternative to employment benefits it should help limit social, economic and financial disruption from the pandemic. Rather than let the economy tailspin, the hope is to engineer a successful recovery once the virus is contained. If business activity and consumer confidence vanish, getting the economy back off the ground will be hard.

We need to expand this plan to the real estate sector. For many newly laid-off people, neither expanded Employment Insurance nor the new Emergency Response Benefit will be enough to cover rent or mortgage payments. But homeowners in Vancouver and tenants in Toronto typically have much higher monthly obligations than those in Moncton and Trois-Rivières. Issuing the same federal cheque to everyone would not be fair. Commercial tenants are just as diverse: their ability to pay rent today depends on how hard the virus has hit their business and that varies from case to case and region to region.

On the positive side, banks rebuilt their capital over the past decade and most commercial landlords, because of strong recent growth, have resources to deal with temporary difficulties. But the scope of the current crisis is unprecedented: large numbers of homeowners could soon stop paying their mortgages, while many real estate owners could default on their commercial mortgages as both tenants stop paying rents. This would force banks to take large write-offs, quickly depleting their capital and potentially throwing the country into a financial crisis.

Such an outcome can be avoided by providing rapid and targeted mortgage and rent relief where it is most urgently needed. Because governments are already over-extended, banks and real estate owners should manage the programs I’m proposing, with government limited to providing funds, liquidity and loan guarantees. Minimizing the government’s role and putting the onus of implementation on banks and landlords would encourage efficiency and speed.

A new homeowner program would have borrowers apply online directly to their bank for mortgage relief. Borrowers’ location, income and mortgage obligations would determine how much monthly mortgage relief they get. Banks would then be reimbursed by government and would hold off on foreclosures. They would later issue a tax slip to borrowers specifying how much mortgage relief they had received. This would count as income on the homeowner’s 2020 tax return next spring.

The virtue of this system is that it adjusts the amount of relief to each household’s current situation. Moreover, the government gets part of the loan back at tax time. A low-income household with high housing obligations would benefit from a temporary mortgage subsidy. A household that also got money but returned to earning income soon after the crisis passed would owe taxes on the relief and so in effect would have benefited from an interest-free loan. Money flowing back to the government next spring would reduce the total cost of the program.

As for tenants, they would contact their landlord to get rent relief. The government would reimburse landlords, thus enabling them to service their own mortgages without having to evict any tenants. Tenants would also declare their rent relief as taxable income.

Finally, government-backed, interest-free bank facilities for commercial real estate could facilitate rent-relief negotiations between landlords and their commercial tenants. Such facilities would fund only rent deferrals to clients, not rent forgiveness. The loans would have to be reimbursed after the crisis. Limiting government guarantees to (say) 80 per cent of the rent deferral would provide all parties with incentives to restructure vulnerable leases.

These three programs would provide the liquidity the financial sector needs in a time of great uncertainty. They avoid the mistake the U.S. government made during the past financial crisis: largely disregarding homeowners’ difficulties and focusing instead on rescuing banks, a strategic error that resulted in high rates of foreclosure and unemployment, prolonged the housing crisis and hobbled recovery.

Both the new federal wage subsidy plan and the real estate rent relief programs I propose would limit disruption, help jump-start the economy and avoid a financial crisis that would jeopardize recovery.

Trying to recreate the economic environment that prevailed in early 2020 carries the risk of slowing needed restructuring. But a successful reset will require already leveraged consumers and businesses to have both sufficient spending power and hope for the future and these policies would give them both.

Luc Vallée is former chief economist of the Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec and former chief strategist at Laurentian Bank Securities.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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