As the federal government prepares to unveil its immigration targets for the next three years, new research finds immigrants to Canada are increasingly leaving this country for opportunities elsewhere.
The number of immigrants who left Canada surged in 2017 and 2019, according to a study conducted by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship and the Conference Board of Canada. Those spikes represent an increase of 31 per cent above the historical average.
Even excluding those two years, however, the study found onward migration, or the process whereby someone moves on from a country they immigrated to and settles again elsewhere, has steadily increased since the 1980s. Among people who arrived in the ‘80s, the average cumulative onward migration rate was 18 per cent. That number rose to 21 per cent among people granted permanent residence in the first half of the 1990s.
“Canada’s future prosperity depends on immigration,” the study reads, citing past research by the Conference Board of Canada that has shown immigration leads to GDP growth, improves the worker-to-retiree ratio and eases labour shortages that add to inflation. Welcoming newcomers also helps fulfill Canada’s humanitarian goals.
“The benefits of immigration are realized over the time that immigrants spend in Canada—the longer they stay, the more they benefit and contribute. Immigrants who thrive are more likely to stay.”
The study found immigrants to Canada are most likely to migrate again four to seven years after arriving here, suggesting that positive early experiences may be key to enticing immigrants to stay here.For these reasons, the authors urged the federal government to make retaining newcomers a top priority.
“For Canada to meet its immigration goals, the country must not only attract newcomers but also retain them. Yet few attempts have been made to evaluate Canada’s immigrant retention rate,” the study reads.
“Retention should be a key performance indicator for Canada’s immigration strategy, given the central role that immigration is meant to play in supporting population and economic growth.”
WHY STAY?
In order to chart the best course forward, the authors said policymakers need to understand the factors that influence onward migration.
These can include economic integration; a sense of belonging; racism; homeownership, or lack thereof; and immigration and economic opportunities in other countries. The study also points out that many people who immigrate to Canada are likely to face significant career setbacks if they can’t find work that matches their qualifications and professional expertise. It can take years to recover from these setbacks, if they ever do recover.
In order to improve the quality of life and prospects for immigrants in Canada, the authors suggested multiple levels of government work together to monitor the onward migration rate among immigrants, invest in settlement services and other programs that ease the process of immigrating to Canada, help employers hire and retain immigrant workers and invest in infrastructure improvements that improve communities in general.
“Investments in early positive experiences may help reduce overall levels of onward migration,” the study reads.
“Initiatives that foster a sense of belonging and attachment to Canada, together with policies that ensure immigrants and their families have opportunities for personal and career growth, could influence more immigrants to decide to stay in Canada.”
The research comes amid a fresh burst of discourse around immigration in this country.
Canada’s population surpassed 40 million people this year after rising by more than one million in 2022. A Statistics Canada report published in late September found 98 per cent of that growth came from net international migration.
In light of this growth, paired with what many experts have labelled a housing crisis, the federal government is grappling with whether its current immigration targets are sustainable.
Last year, Ottawa said it aimed to admit 500,000 permanent residents annually by 2025. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Marc Miller is expected to reveal whether Canada plans to maintain that target when he releases the federal government’s updated immigration levels plan on Wednesday.
The report outlines key measures intended to strengthen the immigration system, including plans to take housing, health care, infrastructure and other services into account when planning immigration levels.
Public opinion around immigration has also begun to shift after decades of steady support for immigrants.
According to the latest Focus Canada public research survey conducted by the Toronto-based Environics Institute, a growing proportion of Canadians is sharing the belief that the current rate of immigration to Canada is too high, citing concerns about how newcomers might impact the availability of affordable housing.
The finding reflects a dramatic shift since last year, when public support for immigration numbers stood at an all-time high.
“Canadians are still more likely to disagree than agree that immigration levels are too high, but the gap between these two opposing views has shrunk over the past 12 months, from 42 percentage points to just seven,” the report reads.
OTTAWA – The New Democrats confirmed Thursday they won’t help Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives topple the government next week, and intend to join the Bloc Québécois in blocking the Tories’ non-confidence motion.
The planned votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats eliminate the possibility of a snap election, buying the Liberals more time to govern after a raucous start to the fall sitting of Parliament.
Poilievre issued a challenge to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this week when he announced he will put forward a motion that simply states that the House has no confidence in the government or the prime minister.
If it were to pass, it would likely mean Canadians would be heading to the polls, but Singh said Thursday he’s not going to let Poilievre tell him what to do.
Voting against the Conservative motion doesn’t mean the NDP support the Liberals, said Singh, who pulled out of his political pact with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago.
“I stand by my words, Trudeau has let you down,” Singh said in the foyer outside of the House of Commons Thursday.
“Trudeau has let you down and does not deserve another chance.”
Canadians will have to make that choice at the ballot box, Singh said, but he will make a decision about whether to help trigger that election on a vote-by-vote basis in the House.
The Conservatives mocked the NDP during Question Period for saying they had “ripped up” the deal to support the Liberals, despite plans to vote to keep them in power.
Poilievre accused Singh of pretending to pull out of the deal to sway voters in a federal byelection in Winnipeg, where the NDP was defending its long-held seat against the Conservatives.
“Once the votes were counted, he betrayed them again. He’s a fake, a phoney and fraud. How can anyone ever believe what the sellout NDP leader says in the future?” Poilievre said during Question Period Thursday afternoon.
At some point after those comments, Singh stepped out from behind his desk in the House and a two-minute shouting match ensued between the two leaders and their MPs before the Speaker intervened.
Outside the House, Poilievre said he plans to put forward another non-confidence motion at the next opportunity.
“We want a carbon-tax election as soon as possible, so that we can axe Trudeau’s tax before he quadruples it to 61 cents a litre,” he said.
Liberal House leader Karina Gould says there is much work the government still needs to do, and that Singh has realized the consequences of potentially bringing down the government. She refused to take questions about whether her government will negotiate with opposition parties to ensure their support in future confidence motions.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hasn’t ruled out voting no-confidence in the government the next time a motion is tabled.
“I never support Liberals. Help me God, I go against the Conservatives on a vote that is only about Pierre Poilievre and his huge ambition for himself,” Blanchet said Thursday.
“I support the interests of Quebecers, if those interests are also good for Canadians.”
A Bloc bill to increase pension cheques for seniors aged 65 to 74 is now at “the very centre of the survival of this government,” he said.
The Bloc needs a recommendation from a government minister to OK the cost and get the bill through the House.
The Bloc also wants to see more protections for supply management in the food sector in Canada and Quebec.
If the Liberals can’t deliver on those two things, they will fall, Blanchet said.
“This is what we call power,” he said.
Treasury Board President Anita Anand wouldn’t say whether the government would be willing to swallow the financial implications of the Bloc’s demands.
“We are focused at Treasury Board on ensuring prudent fiscal management,” she said Thursday.
“And at this time, our immediate focus is implementing the measures in budget 2024 that were announced earlier this year.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.
Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.
She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.
“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.
The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.
Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.
“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.
The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.
Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.
On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.
He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.
“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.
“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”
Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.
He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”
The next federal election must be held by October 2025.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.
Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.
Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.
As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”
Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson
