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In 25 years, up to half of Canadians may identify as racialized or visible minority, report finds

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If current trends persist, the population will double in 25 years. By 2041, most Canadians will be immigrants or the children of immigrants

Canada’s demographic revolution is running at a furious pace, with population growth outstripping even the boldest predictions, mostly due to immigration, with important implications for Canadian identity as much as demography, according to a new poll by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies.

Canada’s population surpassed 40 million people this summer, earlier than predicted. Statistics Canada reported recently that Canada’s population grew by more than 430,000 in the third quarter of this year, for a total of 40.5 million.

Non-permanent residents made up 313,000 of those 430,000 who came to Canada over the three months. Most were in Canada on work permits or study permits, although a minority were refugee claimants.

“Our population is growing much faster than predictions of our national statistics agency, even the adjusted ones,” said Jack Jedwab, CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies, a think tank in Montreal.

Population growth is so high compared to other countries that Canada leads the G7 in it, and is in the top 20 fastest growing countries in the world.

The Canadian population has not increased this fast year-over-year in more than half a century, not since 1957, when both fertility and immigration were high, due to the baby boom and the Hungarian refugee crisis after the 1956 short, suppressed revolt against Communism, when Canada took 37,500 refugees.

“Immigration is driving almost all of our population growth, given reduced birth rates,” said Jedwab.

If current trends persist, the population will double in 25 years, and nearly half of Canadians by then would identify as racialized or visible minority, the ACS’s report on the poll suggests.

Pointing to the 32 per cent of people under 15 years of age who identify as visible minority, compared to 26.5 per cent of the total and just 14.5 per cent of people over 65, according to Statistics Canada data, Jedwab said we are “also seeing a greater diversification of the population, particularly the younger generations.”

One projection based on a reference scenario showed that by 2041 at the latest, most Canadians will be immigrants or the children of immigrants. Jedwab said the results showed that could be as soon as 2031, or even earlier.

From 2011 to 2016, that demographic increased from 39.5 to 41.5 per cent of Canadians.

Canada has often described itself as a nation of immigrants but this was sometimes aspirational as much as descriptive. The idea signalled an ideological openness more than a headcount, because demographics showed Canada was mostly a country of Canada-born Canadians.

This is what is changing at an increasing pace, according to these surveys. Canada is becoming what it has long claimed to be but never fully was.

“I think we’re increasingly becoming a country of immigrants,” Jedwab said.

“In terms of identity dimensions, we’re seeing across the board changes in terms of patterns of religious identification, less so of ethnicity, but more multiple identity.”

Christianity is well on its way to minority status. The report says that in 2021, 19.3 million people representing 53 per cent of the population reported a Christian religion. A decade earlier, it was 67 per cent. A decade before that, at the turn of the century, it was 77 per cent.

More than a third report no religion, a proportion that has doubled over twenty years from 16.5 per cent in 2001 to 34.6 per cent in 2021.

As that changes, Jedwab’s report tried to measure what this means for national identity, for what people think and feel about Canada’s past, present and future.

One important finding is that a significant segment of the population is both ashamed and proud of Canada.

This dual view is often described as an oxymoron, a lamentable over-reaction to an increased focus in schools and public discourse on the evils of history, even a kind of ethnic self-loathing that is toxic to national self-esteem.

We’re increasingly becoming a country of immigrants

The report does not show this. Asked how much they agree, whether strongly or somewhat, with the statement, “I am proud of the history of Canada,” the total agree proportion was 83 per cent, from a low of 70 per cent among 18 to 24 year olds, to 90 per cent among over 65s.

Asked to say the same about the statement, “There are some events in Canada’s history that make me feel ashamed of the country,” a clear majority agreed with both. They felt pride and shame in Canada’s history, simultaneously.

Treatment of Indigenous people and residential schools were far and away the top examples given of shameful events, with lesser mention of Japanese-Canadian internment, the Chinese head tax, and turning away European Jewish refugees from the Second World War.

Canadians, according to this poll, do not think they are personally responsible for historical injustices or the subjugation of Indigenous people. Fewer than one in six hold this view, the poll shows.

It is a common argument that to benefit today from yesterday’s unfair systems is still to participate in them, and thereby to share blame. But most people do not share the view, part of what Jedwab describes as “the settler-colonist discourse.”

“I think people don’t feel that way,” Jedwab said

This does not stop them feeling shame, though, which they hold simultaneously with pride. A full 60 per cent of people who strongly agree that some events make them feel shame also feel very attached to Canada, the survey shows.

Jedwab sees this as an important point, sometimes wrongly dismissed as counter-intuitive, even a contradiction in terms. But being ashamed of Canada’s historical faults as a proud modern Canadian is not oxymoronic. It is in fact quite common, the poll suggests.

“Those people don’t see the contradiction between feeling proud of our country’s accomplishments and feeling ashamed of the things we’ve learned about its history, particularly about treatment of Indigenous peoples,” Jedwab said.

A slight majority of 52 per cent believe that in Canada “everyone is born with an equal opportunity to succeed.” That view is stronger among older demographics, as high as 63 per cent among the over 55s, and among those who were born outside Canada, at 57 per cent.

In ranking a set of challenges from biggest to smallest, a few things stood out.

Respondents in Alberta were way over the national average in choosing ideological conflict between the right wing and left wing.

Respondents in the Prairies were way over the national average is choosing Indigenous and non-Indigenous relations.

Fewer than one person in ten prioritized gender relations, and even fewer immigrant and non-immigrant relations. Religious and secular relations barely registered. But relations between rich and poor was at the top, just behind ideological conflict.

Nationally, more than eight Canadians in ten agreed that Canada is a better country than most, with immigrants most likely to feel that way.

Conducted in September, the survey of 1,502 Canadians was done via an online panel. Traditional margins of error do not apply, but a similarly sized random sample would have a margin of error of 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

 

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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