Stock and commodity prices on the wall of the Australian Stock Exchange in Sydney as Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks on Sept. 2, 2020. (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Global attitudes about the state of the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak are more negative in some countries than they were during the Great Recession, according to Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 10 countries during both crises. But people are also more upbeat about the prospect of a rebound than they were after the financial meltdown more than a decade ago.
In April, the International Monetary Fund predicted the economic downturn resulting from the coronavirus outbreak would be far graver than the Great Recession. With global gross domestic product now expected to contract by 4.9% in 2020, the magnitude of this recession exceeds that of 11 years ago, when year-on-year global GDP growth contracted by 0.1%.
This analysis compares economic attitudes during the coronavirus outbreak with those at the start of the Great Recession. It uses data from Pew Research Center’s Summer 2020 Global Attitudes Survey, conducted across 10 countries between June 10 and Aug. 3, 2020, among 10,416 respondents. The post also includes data from the Center’s 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2019 Global Attitudes Surveys.
Across the 10 countries Pew Research Center surveyed in both 2020 and 2008 or 2009, a median of 80% now say their country’s economy is faring badly, compared with a median of 72% who said the same in 2008-2009. However, there is considerable variation by country.
In four nations – Australia, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom – significantly more now say the economic situation in their country is bad than did during the last recession. In Australia, for example, economic attitudes are more than twice as negative in 2020 as they were in 2008.
By contrast, South Koreans and Americans are now less discouraged by their countries’ economic situation than they were in 2008, although by smaller margins.
In Canada, Germany, Japan and France, the shares who gave their countries’ economies low marks in 2020 are roughly the same as those that had negative assessments in 2008.
In many countries, positive attitudes about the economy dropped more steeply after the coronavirus hit than during the Great Recession
In nine of the countries for which Pew Research Center has polling data for 2007, 2008 or 2009, 2019, and 2020, positive assessments of national economies between 2007 and 2008-2009 fell by a median of 15 percentage points. Between 2019 and 2020, the median decline expanded to 27 points.
In five countries, the downturn in positive assessments of economic conditions during the coronavirus outbreak outdid the decreases seen between 2007 and 2008. In Germany, South Korea, Japan, Italy and France, assessments of the national economy slumped more during the current economic downturn than in the Great Recession. In some of these countries, the declines seen between 2007 and 2008 were the start of a longer downward trend in economic attitudes, as many of the countries were affected by the European debt crisis. Germany, for instance, saw a relatively modest drop in the shares who rated the country’s economic performance positively between 2007 and 2008, but in 2009, that share plunged to an all-time low of only 28%.
By contrast, the decline in British views of their economy was steeper between 2007 and 2008 than between 2019 and 2020 by 10 percentage points, and there too, assessments grew increasingly negative in the years immediately after 2008.
In three countries – the United States, Canada and Spain – the current downturns in economic attitudes mirrored those seen during the Great Recession. However, in Spain, economic attitudes continued to deteriorate after 2008, as the country became increasingly affected by economic decline spurred by the debt crisis.
In many countries, optimism about economic recovery is more widespread now than during the financial crisis
On balance, publics are much more optimistic in 2020 about their national economies improving over the next 12 months than they were in 2008.
Economic optimism has improved the most in Spain, where 48% say they expect conditions to improve over the next year compared with only 18% in 2008. In seven of the eight countries surveyed during both years, economic optimism increased. But a smaller share of people in South Korea, which was an early epicenter of the pandemic, say they expect economic conditions to improve now than did in 2008.
These differences in attitudes are fairly consistent with expert predictions about recovery. In June 2020, the IMF estimated the global economy would rebound from the 4.9% contraction predicted for 2020, with global GDP estimated to grow by 5.4% – not entirely making up the loss projected for 2020, but recovering at an even clip. By contrast, in April 2008, just before the 2008 survey, they expected the global economy to fall into a recession by 2009.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
