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'Increased distress sales' in real estate are noteworthy – The Globe and Mail

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The Globe and Mail’s market strategist offers eight thoughts on the research, analysis and ephemera that’s crossed his desk this week.

1. Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie highlighted the release of the U.S. leading economic indicator index this week which, at minus-7.6 per cent year-over-year, is consistent with economic contraction and recession. The coincident leading indicator, however, is up 1.3 per cent year-over-year, and needs to decline in order to reaffirm the leading indicator signal.

2. BofA Securities analyst Ebrahim Poonawala wrote an update on Canadian bank stocks after describing them a “dicey proposition” in his 2024 report on the sector. He noted that almost half a trillion dollars in mortgages are scheduled to renew at much higher rates in 2024 and 2025, a blow to consumer financial health. The analyst expects “noisy” earnings reports from the banks as restructuring charges blur operating profit growth. Every 10 basis-point rise in provisions for credit losses represents a roughly 6-per-cent decline in profits. Consensus earnings estimates for 2024 have been reduced by 11 per cent so far this year. His notable ratings include a “buy” rating on TD Bank TD-T and an “underperform” on CIBC CM-T.

3. BMO chief economist Doug Porter noted that domestic credit growth came in at 2.9 per cent year-over-year, the lowest rate in 30 years. It’s also the first time in 30 years that credit growth has trailed disposable income improvement.

4. J.P. Morgan global equity strategist Mislav Matejka expects that weakening U.S. economic growth and falling corporate pricing power will place downward pricing pressure on banks, autos, consumer discretionary and (non-aerospace and defense) industrials.

5. CIBC economists Benjamin Tal and Katherine Judge published a report called Trying Times, an in-depth look at the domestic housing market with some remarkable data points. For one, new listings are up 31 per cent from the March, 2023, lows. The authors attribute this in part to “increased distress sales as owners list their properties due to financing issues as mortgages payments increase rapidly.” In the condo market, speculative investors owning multiple units are listing their properties aggressively as rising mortgage payments result in negative cash flow positions. Default rates generally remain low so far but CIBC also reports that “the current pace of slowing in mortgages outstanding is the fastest on record.

6. Goldman Sachs U.S. equity strategist David Kostin analyzed third-quarter executive conference calls and uncovered the four most common themes. These are concerns about higher interest costs, the importance of paying down debt, concerns about the negative effects of inflation on consumer demand and continued, broad investment in artificial intelligence.

7. Also from BofA Securities, oil and gas analyst Doug Leggate made two remarkable observations, one of which is very bullish for Canadian producers. One, he calculates that at current futures prices, 40 per cent of his coverage universe has zero upside from today’s stock prices. Second, he writes “Increasingly we see Canadian oils displacing midcap [U.S. exploration and production companies ] as the incremental investment opportunity to leverage [our] commodity outlook.”

8. TD economist Shernette Mcleod estimates that U.S. holiday spending will rise 4.5 per cent this year, down from 6.0 per cent in 2022. Wage gains and pandemic-era savings are supportive, offsetting weak sentiment and a shift toward services-related spending (like restaurants) that are not included as holiday spending.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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