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India’s Economy Signals Resilience Even as Exports Dim Outlook

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(Bloomberg) — India’s economic activity stayed resilient in March though the weakening pace of exports and an increase in unemployment dimmed the outlook for the country that’s surpassing China as the most populous nation.

While the needle on a dial measuring the so-called Animal Spirits was unchanged at 5 for a third straight month, a jump in collections from taxes levied on consumption showed Asia’s third largest economy was ticking along. That’s the reading from the overall activity tracker comprising of eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg.

The readings come in the backdrop of the Reserve Bank of India pausing rates for the first time since May to evaluate the impact of 250 basis points in rate increases so far and to support growth. Retail and wholesale price-gains have eased on still-elevated rates, spurring calls for a longer pause.

Last week, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said her government was making “enough efforts” to ensure the economy stays buoyant though she expressed concern over the OPEC+ output cut and impact of decisions related to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Weakness in demand for manufacturing goods and services activity could be a drag on India’s recovery, she added.

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Here are more details from the animal spirits barometer, which uses a three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in single-month readings:

Business Activity

Purchasing managers’ surveys showed manufacturing activity improved as pressure on supply chains eased on increased raw materials availability. Activity in services sector moderated in March from a 12-year high in the previous month, bringing the composite index down to 58.4 from 59 in February.

“A sizable proportion of services firms hiked their selling prices to hedge against rising costs,” said Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Exports

Exports dropped 13.9% in March, declining for a fourth straight month, while imports fell 7.90% from a year ago.

“Headwinds from a slowing global economy are beginning to weigh more on exports,” said Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays Plc. Electronics exports gained traction, rising 57% in March from a year ago as major mobile equipment manufacturers are setting up production units in India with the China-plus-one strategy gaining ground, he said.

Apple Inc. now makes almost 7% of its iPhones in India and opened company-owned stores this week in the South Asian country to push retail sales.

Consumer Activity

Liquidity in the banking system swung to a surplus in March, while credit growth moderated to 15%, from 15.52% in February, central bank data showed.

Goods and services tax collections, which help measure consumption in the economy, rose 13% from a year earlier to 1.60 trillion rupees ($19.5 billion) in March — the second-highest level in the history of the six-year-old levy.

New vehicle registrations slowed to 14% in the month from a 16% increase in February, according to data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations. Yet passenger vehicle sales growth improved to 14.42% year-on-year, from 10.9% rise a month ago.

Market Sentiment

Electricity consumption, a widely used indicator to measure demand in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, has moderated. Peak demand in March fell to 170 gigawatt from 181 gigawatt a month ago and soaring temperatures across India could well increase power consumption in the months to come. The unemployment rate climbed to 7.80%, from 7.45% a month ago, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt, as companies tightened purse strings after the festive season.

Want to get the latest business news and analysis from Bloomberg on Telegram? Join our Telegram channel by clicking here and tapping Join.

–With assistance from Karthikeyan Sundaram.

 

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China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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