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Inflation has fallen, but the Bank of Canada hasn’t backed off rate hikes. Here’s why

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate has returned to the country’s target range after a tumultuous couple of years of soaring prices.

Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that inflation fell to 2.8 per cent in June, down significantly from the eye-popping peak of 8.1 per cent reached last summer.

That’s within the country’s one to three per cent inflation target and, as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has boasted, the lowest inflation rate in the G7.

But despite the good news, the Bank of Canada is still in inflation-fighting mode and seems more likely to raise interest rates further than cut them anytime soon.

Earlier this month, the central bank raised its key interest rate again by a quarter percentage point, bringing its key rate to five per cent. At the time, the most recent inflation reading showed the annual rate had fallen to 3.4 per cent in May.

Though the decline in inflation was praised by governor Tiff Macklem, he also issued a warning that the central bank is ready to raise interest rates further if needed.

Given the progress made so far, the Bank of Canada’s hawkishness might seem confusing: why raise interest rates even more when inflation has fallen so significantly?

After all, economists know there’s a lag in monetary policy, which means interest rate hikes can take between one to two years to fully affect the economy.

A key element of the answer lies in the Bank of Canada’s commitment to hit the midpoint of its target range.

The central bank has been adamant that it’s aiming for two per cent inflation: not more and not less.

New projections from the Bank of Canada suggest the steady progress made on inflation over the last year will stall. The central bank now expects Canada’s inflation rate to hover around three per cent over the next year, before falling to two per cent by mid-2025.

That means it will take six months longer than the bank previously expected to get back to target.

The Bank of Canada justified its last rate hike in part by pointing to this new projection, which also signals that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer.

Private-sector economists also expect getting inflation back to two per cent will be challenging and will entail some hiccups along the way.

That’s because core measures of inflation – which strip out volatility and are better at gauging underlying price pressures – are still high.

Lower gasoline prices are responsible for much of the deceleration in inflation so far, while other prices are still rising rapidly. Excluding gasoline prices, Canada’s inflation rate would have been 4.0 per cent in June.

The Bank of Canada’s two preferred core measures of inflation that it tracks closely also show inflation hasn’t eased as much as it might appear, hovering at 3.7 and 3.9 per cent last month.

And with the economy so far outperforming what the central bank and forecasters were anticipating for 2023, the Bank of Canada says it felt it needed to take rates higher.

The central bank’s aggressive approach has not been without pushback, particularly from labour groups and left-leaning economists who have called out the rate hikes as punishment for workers.

Higher interest rates are meant to slow the economy down, which would ultimately come with some job losses.

That’s in addition to the hurt being felt by many homeowners, such as those with variable-rate mortgages or those with fixed-rate mortgages that are coming up on renewal.

In a client note sent Friday, CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal lays out why the Bank of Canada would prefer being more hawkish than dovish with inflation.

“Give the Bank of Canada two choices: inflation or a recession, and the Bank will take a recession any day. The reason is that central banks have a lot of experience and effective tools to fight recessions, while rising inflation expectations are a central banker’s worst nightmare,” Tal wrote.

“The practical implication of this asymmetric game is that the Bank of Canada is biased.”

The Bank of Canada has repeatedly admitted to that bias in its monetary policy reports, where it lays out risks to its forecasts. It has said on multiple occasions that it’s more concerned that inflation might be stickier than expected than it is about the risk of a global recession, given inflation was already high.

Tal said that bias likely drove the Bank of Canada to overshoot with interest rates as early as in June. But as signs of a weakening economy grow, the economist said the central bank will have to back off at some point.

“The Bank of Canada might hike again in September, but soon enough the current disinflationary forces will be too noticeable to ignore, even for a biased bank.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 23, 2023.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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