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Inflation in Canada: BoC holds key interest rate steady

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OTTAWA –

The Bank of Canada ended the year with another interest rate hold as the economy slows and forecasters speculate on the timing of rate cuts in 2024.

The central bank announced its decision to keep its key interest rate steady at five per cent Wednesday, encouraged by evidence that higher rates are helping bring inflation down.

“Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year,” the central bank said in a statement detailing its final decision of the year.

The combination of weaker growth and a cooling job market suggests demand is no longer outpacing supply in the economy, the central bank added.

This slowdown, the Bank of Canada has argued, is necessary to restore price stability.

The decision Wednesday carried few surprises as it marked the third consecutive time the Bank of Canada has opted to keep its key rate unchanged.

But as financial markets place their bets on when the central bank may start cutting rates — and Canadians eagerly await that turning point — the central bank is giving no hints on when that may happen.

Instead, it’s still keeping the door to more rate hikes ajar.

“Governing council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed,” the central bank said, noting it wants to see underlying price pressures ease further.

But economists and market watchers don’t buy that more rate hikes are really on the table.

“They’re still trying to talk tough. They’re trying to tell people that it’s not a slam dunk that …they’re going to be cutting interest rates,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter. “But very few people are listening to them anymore.”

The central bank will have to switch to cutting interest rates soon enough, TD director of economics James Orlando said, as the unemployment rate continues to rise and spending in the economy takes a hit. But for now, it makes sense for the central bank to keep its guard up.

“A hold today was the only option for the BoC,” wrote Orlando in a note to clients. “But with inflation still above three per cent, we get why the BoC isn’t ready to declare victory.”

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Inflation has eased considerably over the last year, reaching 3.1 per cent in October. But economists are mindful that inflation has been somewhat volatile lately, and more evidence is needed that underlying price pressures are easing.

While financial markets are predicting rate cuts to start as early as the first quarter of next year, some commercial banks are taking a more cautious approach.

RBC, for example, expects the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates in the second half of next year.

“Our view is that they’re only going to start sort of cutting in this second half of 2024, once (it) become more obvious that inflation is truly going to return back to target and stay there,” said economist Claire Fan.

The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision, along with its updated economic forecasts, is set for Jan. 24.

A key factor that will drive the central bank’s decision on when to cut interest rates will be how the economy slows in the coming months.

Weighed down by higher borrowing costs, the Canadian economy has struggled to consistently grow this year. The most recent GDP report showed the economy contracted by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter.

The labour market has also lost much of its steam as the unemployment rate creeps higher, reaching 5.8 per cent.

These trends are expected to continue.

Porter says the Canadian economy has not yet fully absorbed the Bank of Canada’s hefty rate hikes, suggesting a sluggish year is ahead.

“The economy is still trying to digest those rate hikes that we’ve had in the last two years,” Porter said.

“Our official view is for GDP to rise 0.5 per cent next year, which is extremely slow. It maybe doesn’t quite rise to the level of the definition of recession, but it’s going to feel pretty sluggish.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 6, 2023.

 

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In the news today: Trump declares victory and secures comeback

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Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed…

Donald Trump declares victory and secures political comeback

Former president Donald Trump is poised to return to White House after a polarizing U.S. election that deeply divided the country. The U.S. election on Tuesday saw Trump post early wins in critical states by taking Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Vice-President Kamala Harris did not appear at her election night party at her alma mater Howard University in Washington. Top aides told the audience that Democrats would continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted. However, U.S. TV networks projected Trump would be the winner early Wednesday morning.

Final day for nominations in Nova Scotia election

Today is the final day for candidate nominations in Nova Scotia’s provincial election campaign. Under the province’s Elections Act, nominations must close 20 days before election day on Nov. 26. The Progressive Conservatives confirmed in a news release last week that they will have a full slate of 55 candidates. The NDP and Liberals confirmed Tuesday that they will have a full slate of candidates, though there was no immediate word from the Green Party. At dissolution, the Progressive Conservatives held 34 seats in the 55-seat legislature, the Liberals held 14 seats, the NDP had six and there was one Independent.

Here’s what else we’re watching…

Nunavut premier to face confidence vote Wednesday

Nunavut Premier P.J. Akeeagok is expected to face a confidence vote today in the territorial legislature. In a surprise move on Monday, Aivilik MLA Solomon Malliki gave notice that he’d present a motion calling for Akeeagok to be stripped of his premiership and removed from cabinet. In Nunavut’s consensus style of government — in which there are no political parties — the MLAs elect a premier from amongst themselves. If the motion passes, Akeeagok would be the second premier in Nunavut’s history to be ousted by the Legislative Assembly.

Greater Toronto home sales surge in October: board

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates. The board says 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Board president Jennifer Pearce says that while it is still early in the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate cutting cycle, homebuyers appear motivated by lower borrowing costs which contributed to a “positive affordability picture” last month alongside relatively flat home prices.

Work of Canadian war artist on display in Calgary

More than two dozen paintings from respected Canadian war artist Bill MacDonnell are on display at the Military Museums in Calgary. MacDonnell spent three decades recording conflicts in Europe, Bosnia and Afghanistan but also looked back at atrocities from the past. Two of his paintings depict mass graves from the Second World War in Kyiv and Russia. Curator Dick Averns says MacDonnell considered himself to be a silent witness to some of the atrocities of war and usually involved destroyed buildings and the aftermath of war. The exhibit at the Military Museums in Calgary is the first for the artist since 2006.

Paula Hawkins talks isolation and new thriller

In Paula Hawkins’ latest thriller, people are emerging from pandemic isolation, engaging with culture once again, when a gallerygoer notices something a bit off about a sculpture displayed at the Tate Modern: it contains a deer bone that looks like it might actually be human. Set in the U.K. art scene, the end of COVID-19 lockdowns is a catalyst for the plot in the was-there-a-murder mystery. The thriller, centred on a mysterious museum collection hiding deadly secrets, is told from three perspectives: that of an artist who died shortly before the onset of the pandemic, her friend-turned-caretaker-turned-executor, and the museum curator tasked with retrieving the remaining artworks left to his employer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Justin Trudeau congratulates Donald Trump on his U.S. presidential win

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has extended congratulations to Donald Trump on his re-election as president of the United States.

Trump staged a major political comeback, securing the necessary 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

This concludes a turbulent campaign for Trump, which included being convicted of 34 felonies in a hush-money case and two assassination attempts.

“On behalf of the government of Canada, I congratulate Donald Trump on being elected as President of the United States of America for a second term, and Senator JD Vance for his election as Vice-President of the United States,” Trudeau said in a statement.

“Canada and the U.S. have the world’s most successful partnership. We are neighbours and friends, united by a shared history, common values, and steadfast ties between our peoples. We are also each other’s largest trade partners and our economies are deeply intertwined.”

Trudeau added that in Trump’s first term, the two nations along with Mexico successfully negotiated the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement. Trudeau stressed the multi-billion dollar value of cross-border trade.

That trade deal is up for review in 2026, and Trump has promised to introduce a universal 10-per-cent tariff on all American imports.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly also shared her congratulations on the social media platform X.

“Canada and the U.S. are friends, neighbours and allies — deeply connected through our economies and our people,” she wrote.

“Together, we’ll focus on investment, growth and global peace and security.” Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman also extended congratulations to Trump and his running mate JD Vance.

“We have the great fortune of being neighbours, and the U.S. has no closer partner and ally than Canada. Looking forward to working together toward a more prosperous and secure future,” she said in a statement.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Trump clinches victory; Trudeau touts Canada-U.S. relationship as ‘envy of the world’

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WASHINGTON – Donald Trump clinched the United States election after a tumultuous campaign as Canadians officials espoused the important relationship between neighbours in congratulations to the former president on his extraordinary comeback.

“I will govern by a simple motto: promises made, promises kept,” Trump said to cheering party faithful at a Florida watch party.

Trump was elected the 47th president of the U.S. amidst a deeply divided America by prevailing among voters in the key battleground states.

Tuesday’s election saw Trump post early wins in critical states by taking North Carolina and Georgia. His path to victory became clear when he won the campaign’s most sought after 19 electoral college votes in Pennsylvania.

Vice-President Kamala Harris did not appear at her election night party at her alma mater Howard University in Washington.

Top aides told the audience that Democrats would continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted.

However, with a win in Wisconsin, Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency early Wednesday morning.

The Republicans also looked to take control of the U.S. Senate after flipping several Democrat seats. Results for control of the House of Representatives remained undecided.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau congratulated Trump on seizing a second term in office. He said Canada and the U.S. have the world’s most successful partnership.

“The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world,” he said on X. “I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations.”

In a statement, Trudeau said the two countries are “neighbours and friends, united by a shared history, common values, and steadfast ties between our peoples.”

“We are also each other’s largest trade partners and our economies are deeply intertwined.”

Canada will not be able to escape the geopolitical pull from the change in administration of its closest neighbour.

Trump has proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariffs, making the duties the centrepiece of his platform. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

“I would say it’s code red in Canada-U.S. relations,” said Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations.

Hampson said Canada should not panic but must be prepared to double-down on efforts to build relationships with U.S. lawmakers at all levels and move away from strategies of quiet diplomacy.

Canadian officials have been reaching out to members of the Republican leader’s team for months ahead of the election, making clear the importance of the bilateral relationship.

Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., also sent her congratulations to Trump and his running mate JD Vance.

“We have the great fortune of being neighbours, and the U.S. has no closer partner and ally than Canada,” Hillman posted on social media. “Looking forward to working together towards a more prosperous and secure future.”

The first Trump administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada can be when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Negotiating its successor, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, was a key test for Ottawa after Trump’s 2016 victory. The trilateral agreement will come under review in 2026.

Trump is the first former president to return to power since Grover Cleveland regained the White House in the 1892 election. He is the first person convicted of a felony to be elected president and, at 78, is the oldest person elected to the office. Vance will become the highest-ranking member of the millennial generation in the U.S. government.

But right up to the moments Americans cast their ballots, polls showed the race was razor-thin.

The tumultuous campaign season saw Biden remove himself from the top of the Democrats’ ticket following a disastrous debate performance against Trump. The party quickly rallied support around Harris a little more than three months before election day.

The vice-president’s campaign kicked off with the idea of joy and charting a new path forward, but Harris was never able to fully shake off the criticism from many Americans about immigration, inflation and the economy directed at Biden’s administration.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

— With files from The Associated Press



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