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Inflation in Canada: Latest interest rate decision

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OTTAWA –

The Bank of Canada ended the year with another interest rate hold as the economy slows and forecasters speculate on the timing of rate cuts in 2024.

The central bank announced its decision to keep its key interest rate steady at five per cent Wednesday, encouraged by evidence that higher rates are helping bring inflation down.

“Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year,” the central bank said in a statement detailing its final decision of the year.

The combination of weaker growth and a cooling job market suggests demand is no longer outpacing supply in the economy, the central bank added.

This slowdown, the Bank of Canada has argued, is necessary to restore price stability.

The decision Wednesday carried few surprises as it marked the third consecutive time the Bank of Canada has opted to keep its key rate unchanged.

But as financial markets place their bets on when the central bank may start cutting rates — and Canadians eagerly await that turning point — the central bank is giving no hints on when that may happen.

Instead, it’s still keeping the door to more rate hikes ajar.

“Governing council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed,” the central bank said, noting it wants to see underlying price pressures ease further.

But economists and market watchers don’t buy that more rate hikes are really on the table.

“They’re still trying to talk tough. They’re trying to tell people that it’s not a slam dunk that …they’re going to be cutting interest rates,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter. “But very few people are listening to them anymore.”

The central bank will have to switch to cutting interest rates soon enough, TD director of economics James Orlando said, as the unemployment rate continues to rise and spending in the economy takes a hit. But for now, it makes sense for the central bank to keep its guard up.

“A hold today was the only option for the BoC,” wrote Orlando in a note to clients. “But with inflation still above three per cent, we get why the BoC isn’t ready to declare victory.”

Read more from BNNBloomberg.ca:

Inflation has eased considerably over the last year, reaching 3.1 per cent in October. But economists are mindful that inflation has been somewhat volatile lately, and more evidence is needed that underlying price pressures are easing.

While financial markets are predicting rate cuts to start as early as the first quarter of next year, some commercial banks are taking a more cautious approach.

RBC, for example, expects the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates in the second half of next year.

“Our view is that they’re only going to start sort of cutting in this second half of 2024, once (it) become more obvious that inflation is truly going to return back to target and stay there,” said economist Claire Fan.

The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision, along with its updated economic forecasts, is set for Jan. 24.

A key factor that will drive the central bank’s decision on when to cut interest rates will be how the economy slows in the coming months.

Weighed down by higher borrowing costs, the Canadian economy has struggled to consistently grow this year. The most recent GDP report showed the economy contracted by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter.

The labour market has also lost much of its steam as the unemployment rate creeps higher, reaching 5.8 per cent.

These trends are expected to continue.

Porter says the Canadian economy has not yet fully absorbed the Bank of Canada’s hefty rate hikes, suggesting a sluggish year is ahead.

“The economy is still trying to digest those rate hikes that we’ve had in the last two years,” Porter said.

“Our official view is for GDP to rise 0.5 per cent next year, which is extremely slow. It maybe doesn’t quite rise to the level of the definition of recession, but it’s going to feel pretty sluggish.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 6, 2023.

 

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House of Commons committee looks to recall Tom Clark about New York City condo

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OTTAWA – Members of Parliament studying the federal government’s decision to buy a $9-million luxury condo in Manhattan are preparing to recall Canada’s consul general in New York to answer more questions about his involvement in the purchase.

The Conservatives put forward a motion on Tuesday to have Tom Clark return to the House operations committee. The move was supported by other opposition parties after new information emerged that contradicted his previous testimony.

Clark told the committee in September he had no role whatsoever in the purchase of the new condo, or the sale of the previous residence.

But reporting from Politico on Tuesday indicated Clark raised concerns about the old unit two months after he was appointed to his role as Canada’s representative in New York.

Politico cited documents obtained through access-to-information, which were then shared with other media by the Conservative party.

A May 2023 report from Global Affairs Canada indicates Clark informed government officials the residence needed to be replaced.

“The current (consul general in New York, head of mission) expressed concerns regarding the completion of the … kitchen and refurbishment project and indicated the unit was not suitable to be the (consul general’s) accommodations,” the report reads.

“It does not have an ideal floor plan for (consul general in New York) representational activities.”

The final call on whether Clark will face further questions has not been made, however, because the committee adjourned before the motion went to a vote. The committee’s next meeting is next week.

Tuesday’s meeting featured Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly as a witness, and she faced questions about Clark’s involvement in the purchase.

“This was not a political decision because this was an operational decision,” Joly told the committee in a testy exchange with Conservative MP Michael Barrett.

“(The committee) had numerous people, officials of mine, that came to see you and said that. So, these are the facts.”

Joly later told the committee she only learned of the decision to purchase a new residence through media reports, even though her chief of staff was notified weeks earlier.

“The department informed my chief of staff once the decision was taken. Because, of course, it was not a political decision,” Joly said.

Shortly before Joly was excused, Conservative MP Stephanie Kusie put forward the motion to recall Clark for two more hours to answer more questions.

Bloc MP Julie Vignola proposed instead to have him testify for only one hour — indicating she would support the motion with that change.

“One hour is more than enough to know whether he lied to us,” Vignola told her colleagues in French.

NDP MP Taylor Bachrach also said he would support the move, given the contrast between the new report and Clark’s testimony about whether he spoke to anyone about a desire to move into a new residence.

“What really irks me is the consul general was so clear in response to repeated questioning at committee,” Bachrach said.

“Mr. Clark said, ‘Never.’ One-word answer, ‘Never.’ You can’t get more unequivocal than that.”

The Liberal government has argued that buying the new residence will save Canadians taxpayers millions of dollars and reduce ongoing maintenance costs and property taxes while supporting future program needs for the consul general.

The former official residence is listed for sale at $13 million, but has yet to be sold.

In her remarks Tuesday, Joly told the committee other like-minded countries have paid more for their Manhattan residences than Canada has — including $11 million for the U.K., and France’s $19 million purchase in 2015.

Joly said among the countries that have residences in New York, only Afghanistan and Bangladesh were not located in Manhattan.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Proposed $32.5B tobacco deal not ‘doomed to fail,’ judge says in ruling

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TORONTO – An Ontario judge says any outstanding issues regarding a proposed $32.5 billion settlement between three major tobacco companies and their creditors should be solvable in the coming months.

Ontario Superior Court Chief Justice Geoffrey Morawetz has released his reasons for approving a motion last week to have representatives for creditors review and vote on the proposal in December.

One of the companies, JTI-Macdonald Corp., said last week it objects to the plan in its current form and asked the court to postpone scheduling the vote until several issues were resolved.

The other two companies, Rothmans, Benson & Hedges and Imperial Tobacco Canada Ltd., didn’t oppose the motion but said they retained the right to contest the proposed plan down the line.

The proposal announced last month includes $24 billion for provinces and territories seeking to recover smoking-related health-care costs and about $6 billion for smokers across Canada and their loved ones.

If the proposed deal is accepted by a majority of creditors, it will then move on to the next step: a hearing to obtain the approval of the court, tentatively scheduled for early next year.

In a written decision released Monday, Morawetz said it was clear that not all issues had been resolved at this stage of the proceedings.

He pointed to “outstanding issues” between the companies regarding their respective shares of the total payout, as well as debate over the creditor status of one of JTI-Macdonald’s affiliate companies.

In order to have creditors vote on a proposal, the court must be satisfied the plan isn’t “doomed to fail” either at the creditors or court approval stages, court heard last week.

Lawyers representing plaintiffs in two Quebec class actions, those representing smokers in the rest of Canada, and 10 out of 13 provinces and territories have expressed their support for the proposal, the judge wrote in his ruling.

While JTI-Macdonald said its concerns have not been addressed, the company’s lawyer “acknowledged that the issues were solvable,” Morawetz wrote.

“At this stage, I am unable to conclude that the plans are doomed to fail,” he said.

“There are a number of outstanding issues as between the parties, but there are no issues that, in my view, cannot be solved,” he said.

The proposed settlement is the culmination of more than five years of negotiations in what Morawetz has called one of “the most complex insolvency proceedings in Canadian history.”

The companies sought creditor protection in Ontario in 2019 after Quebec’s top court upheld a landmark ruling ordering them to pay about $15 billion to plaintiffs in two class-action lawsuits.

All legal proceedings against the companies, including lawsuits filed by provincial governments, have been paused during the negotiations. That order has now been extended until the end of January 2025.

In total, the companies faced claims of more than $1 trillion, court documents show.

In October of last year, the court instructed the mediator in the case, former Chief Justice of Ontario Warren Winkler, and the monitors appointed to each company to develop a proposed plan for a global settlement, with input from the companies and creditors.

A year later, they proposed a plan that would involve upfront payments as well as annual ones based on the companies’ net after-tax income and any tax refunds, court documents show.

The monitors estimate it would take the companies about 20 years to pay the entire amount, the documents show.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Potato wart: Appeal Court rejects P.E.I. Potato Board’s bid to overturn ruling

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OTTAWA – The Federal Court of Appeal has dismissed a bid by the Prince Edward Island Potato Board to overturn a 2021 decision by the federal agriculture minister to declare the entire province as “a place infested with potato wart.”

That order prohibited the export of seed potatoes from the Island to prevent the spread of the soil-borne fungus, which deforms potatoes and makes them impossible to sell.

The board had argued in Federal Court that the decision was unreasonable because there was insufficient evidence to establish that P.E.I. was infested with the fungus.

In April 2023, the Federal Court dismissed the board’s application for a judicial review, saying the order was reasonable because the Canadian Food Inspection Agency said regulatory measures had failed to prevent the transmission of potato wart to unregulated fields.

On Tuesday, the Appeal Court dismissed the board’s appeal, saying the lower court had selected the correct reasonableness standard to review the minister’s order.

As well, it found the lower court was correct in accepting the minister’s view that the province was “infested” because the department had detected potato wart on 35 occasions in P.E.I.’s three counties since 2000.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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