adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Business

Inflation: What Omicron could mean for prices in 2022 – Global News

Published

 on


If you’re wondering what inflation will be like in 2022, economists have a go-to answer: it really depends on just how the Omicron wave of COVID-19 evolves.

“We’re pretty comfortable with the notion that if we can get the global supply chain unglued … inflation will come down over time from where it is now,” says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC.

“The problem is, unless you have a crystal ball on COVID and know when we’re going to have enough of the world’s population vaccinated so we don’t keep getting these disruptions to manufacturing and shipping around the world, it’s very difficult to predict how long that’s going to take,” he adds.

Read more:

Canada’s annual inflation rate holds steady in November at 4.7%

Canada’s inflation rate held steady at 4.7 per cent in November, matching the reading from October, which was the highest since February 2003, Statistics Canada said on Dec. 15.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has called the current bout of rapidly rising prices “transitory but not short-lived.” The central bank has attributed inflation to worldwide supply snarls that are pushing up the prices of anything from food to new vehicles, a rebound in the price of some goods that had become cheaper in the earlier stages of the pandemic, and soaring energy costs.

Read more:

Omicron uncertainty clouding Canada’s inflation forecasts: fiscal update

The federal government’s fall fiscal update, which Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled on Dec. 14, warns the rapid spread of the Omicron variant “clouds” the outlook for inflation.

“The path forward will depend on a number of tailwinds and headwinds, which could either bolster the recovery or push it off course. Of concern, the global health situation has deteriorated in recent weeks, with resurgences of COVID-19 in some regions and the emergence of a new variant, Omicron,” the update reads.

Rising case counts tied to the new variant could further complicate global supply chain challenges but also slowed energy demand, temporarily dampening energy prices, economists told Global News.


Click to play video: 'Omicron and travel restrictions'



4:31
Omicron and travel restrictions


Omicron and travel restrictions

Inflation likely to remain elevated next year

Another spike in COVID-19 cases could throw a wrench in the process of getting factory production and global shipping capacity back to normal, Shenfeld says.

Still, some of the factors that drove up prices in 2021 might “ebb somewhat” in 2022, says Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO.

Auto prices, for example, are unlikely to rise as much as they did this year amid the global chips shortage, he says. And Canada’s home prices are also unlikely to replicate the gravity-defying climb of 2021, he adds.

Read more:

Quebec, Ontario, P.E.I., introduce new measures to slow Omicron spread

In a report released on Dec. 15, Royal LePage said it expects the aggregate price of a home in Canada to rise 10.5 per cent year-over-year in 2022. While significant, that price gain would be smaller than the year-over-year increases recorded throughout 2021.

In November, for example, Canada’s average home sale price was $720,850, up nearly 20 per cent from the same month last year, according to the latest available data from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Still, food inflation may yet get worse before it gets better due to the global supply chain logjams, high energy prices and extreme weather events that have curtailed crop yields.

Food prices are expected to rise between five and seven per cent in 2022, the steepest increase yet forecasted by Canada’s Food Price Report, which has been estimating food inflation for the past 12 years. Restaurant meals, dairy, vegetable and bakery prices will deliver the biggest hit to Canadians’ bottom lines, with the average family of four expected to spend an additional $1,000 a year on groceries over the next 12 months.

READ MORE: Why everything you want is out of stock or more expensive

Overall, BMO expects inflation to average around 3.5 per cent in 2022, much higher than what Canadians have become accustomed to over the past 20 years, but lower than the rate seen over the past few months.


Click to play video: 'Bank of Canada renews inflation target, Freeland says'



0:48
Bank of Canada renews inflation target, Freeland says


Bank of Canada renews inflation target, Freeland says

Omicron could temporarily result in lower gas prices

The spread of Omicron could temporarily lower prices at the pump by once again depressing global demand for travel and delaying the return to the office for commuters around the world, says Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter.

Oil prices dropped to around US$73 ($94) a barrel on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency predicted Omicron would dent global demand recovery.

But any dip in gas prices would likely be short-lived, Johnston adds.

Read more:

Omicron is raging in the U.K. What can Canada learn?

OPEC+, which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers like Russia, plans to boost supply every month by 400,000 barrels per day after sharply cutting output last year.

On the other hand, U.S. oil production likely won’t increase as much as it has done in the past in response to previous increases in oil prices, Johnston says.

U.S. oil producers seem keen to reward stockholders with share buybacks and dividend increases rather than spending cash to invest and boost output, he adds.

While motorists may see a bit of a reprieve in the first three months of the year, Johnston says gasoline prices are likely to climb back up later on in the year, making for an expensive driving season in 2022.


Click to play video: 'How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022'



3:39
How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022


How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022

Interest rate still likely in the spring

Despite the economic uncertainty tied to Omicron, economists still expect the Bank of Canada to go ahead with interest rate hikes starting in the spring of 2022.

Higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow, cooling down economic activity and putting downward pressure on inflation.

“We still think that the Bank of Canada can start raising interest rates in the spring,” Shenfeld says.

Still, Canada’s central bank can “afford to take it slowly,” he adds. Interest rates will likely climb by less than a percentage point in 2022, with a few further hikes expected in 2023, according to Shenfeld.

Higher rates would likely dampen inflation quickly, Porter says.

“It might take 18 months (for a rate hike) to fully work its way through the system, but I suspect that rate increases could be having a real effect within six months.”

with files from Reuters

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

Published

 on

File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

 

Why?

 

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

 

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

 

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

 

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

 

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

 

  • Clear writing = Clear thinking
  • Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
  • Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

 

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

 

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

 

  • Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
  • Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
  • Pitches that are likely to get read
  • Social media content that stops thumbs
  • Human-sounding website copy
  • Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

 

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

 

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

 

Why?

 

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

 

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

 

  • Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
  • Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

 

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

Continue Reading

Business

Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

Published

 on

 

HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending