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Investment banks are struggling in a high-interest-rate world

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Shareholders like profits: a steady stream of income they can count on, quarter after quarter. The earnings America’s biggest banks make, however, are often pushed around by the volatility of the economy they serve. If the economy accelerates, demand for loans takes off; if it slows, bankers must set aside provisions for bad loans. Investment banks’ trading businesses tend to do well in times of volatility and uncertainty, but their advisory services sell best when markets are healthy and stable. Bank bosses must try to balance their exposure to these forces.

The past three years, in which the American economy has experienced a pandemic-induced shutdown, a financial boom and a rate shock, have been unusually volatile. As a result, the period has been an interesting test of how successful bank bosses have been in their efforts to balance their businesses’ performance. The results were on display between January 13th and 17th as Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings.

Altogether profits at the six banks fell by 20% from $34bn in the fourth quarter of 2021 to around $27bn in the same period of 2022—but the pain was not evenly spread. Earnings at JPMorgan and Bank of America were up a little. Meanwhile, at Goldman Sachs they were down by two-thirds. Some of this divergence can be explained by their different strengths. Firms with big consumer banks, such as Bank of America and JPMorgan, typically do well when interest rates jump. Rising rates tend to increase the difference between what banks pay out on deposits and earn on loans. Net interest income, as this gap is called, zoomed higher in 2022 (see chart). It climbed by $17bn between the end of 2021 and 2022 across the big six banks, to $66bn.

This increase is partly offset by the fact that higher interest rates will make it harder for consumers and companies to pay back debts. Banks also set aside some $7.2bn for loan losses in the fourth quarter of 2022. Jamie Dimon, boss of JPMorgan, and Brian Moynihan, boss of Bank of America, both predicted a mild recession in America this year. Yet the net effect of higher interest rates on profits remains positive for now.

Investment-bank revenues, which slump when stockmarkets do badly, dropped by around 50% at Goldman and Morgan Stanley. But divergence in profits cannot simply be explained by the differing performance of investment and consumer banks. For one thing, profits at Morgan Stanley, where non-investment-bank businesses still did well, dropped far less sharply than at Goldman. For another, Wells Fargo delivered another bleak quarter, despite its big consumer bank, with profits half their level a year ago. The pain at Wells can be explained by regulatory troubles. In December the bank agreed to pay an enormous fine of $1.7bn to the consumer financial-protection bureau, having improperly managed millions of consumer accounts.

It is harder to explain the situation at Goldman. The firm sought to build a consumer bank, in part to diversify its business. But it has had to set aside unusually high provisions for loan losses in that department, and is now scaling back its efforts. “What went wrong?” asked one analyst on the Goldman earnings call on January 17th. David Solomon, the bank’s boss, argued the firm had tried to do too much, too fast and had lacked the talent to pull off some of its wide-ranging ambitions. Six days earlier the company had sacked 6.5% of its workforce. America’s big banks have all faced the same enormous economic shocks in recent years. These have revealed how different they have become—and how well they have been managed.

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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