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Investment exit strategies – what to do when it’s time to sell

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If an investor is selling for tax loss harvesting, they should try to set up a switch trade, so they can sell and exchange their position with a similar investment that is required to hold for more than 30 days, in order to declare a loss.Spencer Platt/Getty Images

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Investor psychology can be a powerful force. No matter how investors fill out their risk tolerance assessments, when faced with a prolonged market downturn like the one we have seen this year, many will be considering exiting a portion of their investments.

When it comes time to do some selling, it’s important to keep in mind the best investment exit strategies and how to implement them.

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“The selling of securities in any account should always comply with a long-term investment strategy and not be a knee-jerk reaction to volatile market conditions,” says Mary Hagerman, portfolio manager and investment advisor at The Mary Hagerman Group with Raymond James Ltd., in Montreal.

“It’s important that investors do not act impulsively when selling. They need to step back from the markets and have a good answer to ‘Why do I want to sell now?’”

Ms. Hagerman notes that sharp market downturns are not necessarily good times to sell. Rebalancing might be better if the overall asset allocation still makes sense for the long term.

Instead of selling a specific investment for cash, Ms. Hagerman advises considering staying invested but looking for a different or more diversified option that has better potential when the markets turn around. For instance, selling a single stock holding in technology and buying a tech index such as the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK-A or Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ.

Ms. Hagerman also has some specific tips and strategies for exiting investments.

“Never put in a sell order on the market open or too close to the close, especially for ETFs (exchange-traded funds),” she says. “Give the markets some time for price discovery.”

For large orders and in very volatile markets, she advises setting a limit price, and also keeping in mind the underlying market. For example, European ETFs should be transacted early in the day before their markets close, if possible. Also, if the investment is hedged, keep in mind the direction of the exchange rate when selling – it could be working for or against the trade.

For equity and fixed income, be mindful of ex-dividend dates and income distribution dates that could affect the trading price. Also, any geopolitical events or important announcements that might be pending and could affect pricing.

Ms. Hagerman likes to look at market technicals such as 200- and 50-day moving averages and follows the advice of her firm’s head technical analyst for the overall direction of the market when looking to rebalance or liquidate part or all of a position.

“There is often a bounce right after a big selloff that gives a better exit price,” she says.

Another technique Ms. Hagerman mentions is that if an investor is selling for tax-loss harvesting, they should try to set up a switch trade, so they can sell and exchange their position with a similar investment that is required to hold for more than 30 days, in order to declare a loss. The investor can then switch back to their original holding if they so desire.

Setting stops at inflection points

David Burrows uses a disciplined and systematic approach to selling in his role as chief investment strategist at Barometer Capital Management Inc., in Toronto.

“We identify a price below our entry level where we would stop ourselves out in the event that it does not work out as expected,” he says. That is, a pre-determined price to sell if the stock falls to that level.

“In effect, it quantifies our risk budget on each position and protects against a small mistake turning into a big one.”

Mr. Burrows notes his firm sets stops at what they see as a inflection point where a position goes from being in a clearly defined uptrend to a downtrend. And when positions breach these inflection points, they choose to exit. Barometer also resets stops over time to higher levels.

From a tax perspective, Mr. Burrows says that by quickly selling weak positions and holding winning positions, his client portfolios build a taxable loss pool that can offset future gains.

“We tend to make the business decision first and tax decision second. Better to pay tax and protect a gain than to hold a failing position in order to save tax,” he says.

Should you ‘throw in the towel?’

When it comes to exiting investment positions, sometimes the best first step is to determine whether you should be selling at all.

“I certainly recognize that investors are psychologically primed to want to throw in the towel the deeper the downturn in markets gets, but logically, the depths of a downturn when recent returns have been the weakest is the worst time to exit an investment and is the exact point in the cycle when future returns are the best,” says Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel in Toronto.

Mr. Madden says a better approach is to have a written asset allocation policy, and rebalance it quarterly, or at least annually. This approach would have the investor partially selling richly valued and/or highly appreciated assets closer to peaks in the cycle and adding to them closer to the depths of a downturn.

“At the risk of oversimplifying, there’s only two reasons to sell a stock – you were right, or you were wrong,” Mr. Madden says.

In the first case, a selling decision should be based on a reassessment of the fair value of the stock and likely catalysts for its future growth. In the latter case, he says “you must coldly and unemotionally” revaluate the potential value of the shares, as well as their growth prospects. If at that point you conclude that the rosy future you once envisioned for the business is no longer feasible, it’s time to “rip off the band-aid” and sell the shares.

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BWXT announces $80M investment for plant in Cambridge – CityNews Kitchener

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BWX Technologies (BWXT) in Cambridge is investing $80-million to expand their nuclear manufacturing plant in Cambridge.

Minister of Energy, Todd Smith, was in the city on Friday to join the company in the announcement.

The investment will create over 200 new skilled and unionized jobs. This is part of the province’s plan to expand affordable and clean nuclear energy to power the economy.

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“With shovels in the ground today on new nuclear generation, including the first small modular reactor in the G7, I’m so pleased to see global nuclear manufacturers like BWXT expanding their operations in Cambridge and hiring more Ontario workers,” Smith said. “The benefits of Ontario’s nuclear industry reaches far beyond the stations at Darlington, Pickering and Bruce, and this $80 million investment shows how all communities can help meet Ontario’s growing demand for clean energy, while also securing local investments and creating even more good-paying jobs.”

The added jobs will support BWXT’s existing operations across the province as well as help the sector’s ongoing operations of existing nuclear stations at Darlington, Bruce and Pickering.

“Our expansion comes at a time when we’re supporting our customers in the successful execution of some of the largest clean nuclear energy projects in the world,” John MacQuarrie, President of Commercial Operations at BWXT, said.

“At the same time, the global nuclear industry is increasingly being called upon to mitigate the impacts of climate change and increase energy security and independence. By investing significantly in our Cambridge manufacturing facility, BWXT is further positioning our business to serve our customers to produce more safe, clean and reliable electricity in Canada and abroad.”

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AI investments will help chip sector to recover: Analyst – Yahoo Finance

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The semiconductor sector is undergoing a correction as interest rate cut expectations dwindle, prompting concerns about the impact on these high-growth, technology-driven stocks. Wedbush Enterprise Hardware Analyst Matt Bryson joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the dynamics shaping the chip industry.

Bryson acknowledges that the rise of generative AI has been a significant driving force behind the recent success of chip stocks. While he believes that AI is shifting “the way technology works,” he notes it will take time. Due to this, Bryson highlights that “significant investment” will continue to occur in the chip market, fueled by the growth of generative AI applications.

However, Bryson cautions that as interest rates remain elevated, it could “weigh on consumer spending.” Nevertheless, he expresses confidence that the AI revolution “changing the landscape for tech” will likely insulate the sector from the effect of high interest rates, as investors are unwilling to miss out on the “next technology” breakthrough.

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For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance.

This post was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

BRAD SMITH: As rate cut bets shift, so have moves in one sector, in particular. Shares of AMD and Intel, both down over 15% in the last 30 days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, also known as Sox, dropping over 10% from recent highs, despite a higher rate environment.

Our next guest is still bullish on the sector. Matt Bryson, Wedbush Enterprise Hardware analyst, joins us now. Matt, thanks so much for taking the time here. Walk us through your thesis here, especially, given some of the pullback that we’ve seen recently.

MATT BRYSON: So I think what we’ve seen over the last year or so is that the growth of generative AI has fueled the chip stocks. And the expectation that AI is going to shift everything in the way that technology works.

And I think that at the end of the day, that that thesis will prove out. I think the question is really timing. But the investments that we’ve seen that have lifted NVIDIA, that have lifted AMD, that have lifted the chip stock and sector, in general, the large cloud service providers, building out data centers. I don’t think anything has changed there in the near term.

So when I speak to OEMs, who are making AI servers, when I speak to cloud service providers, there is still significant investment going on in that space. That investment is slated to continue certainly into 2025. And I think, as long as there is this substantial investment, that we will see chip names report strong numbers and guide for strong growth.

SEANA SMITH: Matt, when it comes to the fact that we are in this macroeconomic environment right now, likelihood that rates will be higher for longer here, at least, when you take a look at the expectations, especially following some of the commentary that we got from Fed officials this week, what does that signal more broadly for the AI trade, meaning, is there a reason to be a bit more cautious in this higher for longer rate environment, at least, in the near term?

MATT BRYSON: Yeah. I think certainly from a market perspective, high interest rates weight on the market. Eventually, they weigh on consumer spending. Certainly, for a lot of the chip names, they’re high multiple stocks.

When you think about where there can be more of a reaction or a negative reaction to high interest rates, certainly, it has some impact on those names. But in terms of, again, AI changing the fundamental landscape for tech, I don’t think that high interest rates or low interest rates will change that.

So when you think about Microsoft, Amazon, all of those large data center operators looking at AI, potentially, changing the landscape forever and wanting to make a bet on AI to make sure that they don’t miss that change, I don’t think whether interest rates are low or high are going to really affect their investment.

I think they’re going to go ahead and invest because no one wants to be the guy that missed the next technology wave.

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If pension funds can't see the case for investing in Canada, why should you? – The Globe and Mail

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It’s time to ask a rude question: Is Canada still worth investing in?

Before you rush to deliver an appropriately patriotic response, think about the issue for a moment.

A good place to begin is with the federal government’s announcement this week that it is forming a task force under former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. The task force’s job will be to find ways to encourage Canadian pension funds to invest more of their assets in Canada.

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Wooing pension funds has become a high-priority matter for Ottawa because, at the moment, these big institutional investors don’t invest all that much in Canada. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, for instance, had a mere 14 per cent of its massive $570-billion portfolio in Canadian assets at the end of its last fiscal year.

Other major Canadian pension plans have similar allocations, especially if you look beyond their holdings of government bonds and consider only their investments in stocks, infrastructure and real assets. When it comes to such risky assets, these big, sophisticated players often see more potential for good returns outside of Canada than at home.

This leads to a simple question: If the CPPIB and other sophisticated investors aren’t overwhelmed by Canada’s investment appeal, why should you and I be?

It’s not as if Canadian stocks have a record of outstanding success. Over the past decade, they have lagged far behind the juicy returns of the U.S.-based S&P 500.

To be fair, other countries have also fallen short of Wall Street’s glorious run. Still, Canadian stocks have only a middling record over the past 10 years even when measured against other non-U.S. peers. They have trailed French and Japanese stocks and achieved much the same results as their Australian counterparts. There is no obvious Canadian edge.

There are also no obvious reasons to think this middle-of-the-pack record will suddenly improve.

A generation of mismanagement by both major Canadian political parties has spawned a housing crisis and kneecapped productivity growth. It has driven household debt burdens to scary levels.

Policy makers appear unwilling to take bold action on many long-standing problems. Interprovincial trade barriers remain scandalously high, supply-managed agriculture continues to coddle inefficient small producers, and tax policy still pushes people to invest in homes rather than in productive enterprises.

From an investor’s perspective, the situation is not that appetizing. A handful of big banks, a cluster of energy producers and a pair of railways dominate Canada’s stock market. They are solid businesses, yes, but they are also mature industries, with less than thrilling growth prospects.

What is largely missing from the Canadian stock scene are big companies with the potential to expand and innovate around the globe. Shopify Inc. SHOP-T and Brookfield Corp. BN-T qualify. After that, the pickings get scarce, especially in areas such as health care, technology and retailing.

So why hold Canadian stocks at all? Four rationales come to mind:

  • Canadian stocks have lower political risk than U.S. stocks, especially in the run-up to this year’s U.S. presidential election. They also are far away from the front lines of any potential European or Asian conflict.
  • They are cheaper than U.S. stocks on many metrics, including price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios and dividend yields. Scored in terms of these standard market metrics, they are valued more or less in line with European and Japanese stocks, according to Citigroup calculations.
  • Canadian dividends carry some tax advantages and holding reliable Canadian dividend payers means you don’t have to worry about exchange-rate fluctuations.
  • Despite what you may think, Canada’s fiscal situation actually looks relatively benign. Many countries have seen an explosion of debt since the pandemic hit, but our projected deficits are nowhere near as worrisome as those in the United States, China, Italy or Britain, according to International Monetary Fund figures.

How compelling you find these rationales will depend upon your personal circumstances. Based strictly on the numbers, Canadian stocks look like ho-hum investments – they’re reasonable enough places to put your money, but they fail to stand out compared with what is available globally.

Canadians, though, have always displayed a striking fondness for homebrew. Canadian stocks make up only a smidgen of the global market – about 3 per cent, to be precise – but Canadians typically pour more than half of their total stock market investments into Canadian stocks, according to the International Monetary Fund. This home market bias is hard to justify on any rational basis.

What is more reasonable? Vanguard Canada crunched the historical data in a report last year and concluded that Canadian investors could achieve the best balance between risk and reward by devoting only about 30 per cent of their equity holdings to Canadian stocks.

This seems to be more or less in line with what many Canadian pension funds currently do. They have about half their portfolio in equities, so devoting 30 per cent of that half to domestic stocks works out to holding about 15 per cent of their total portfolio in Canadian equities.

That modest allocation to Canadian stocks is a useful model for Canadian investors of all sizes. And if Ottawa doesn’t like it? Perhaps it could do more to make Canada an attractive investment destination.

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