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Investment Insight For Millennials

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Investment professionals tend to sneer at investment how-to books. Well they should. Many investment books promise impossible get-rich-quick schemes or unknown ways to “beat the house,” to use a phrase usually associated with casino gambling. Occasionally, however, a work comes along that offers genuine insight and useful investment guidance. One such work is Millennial Apocalypse by Zane Brown and Dr. Donalee Brown.

This book, clearly written to help millennials negotiate the world of investing, accomplishes its objective in two ways. It offers the kind of sane investment advice applicable to anyone who wants to secure and expand a financial nest egg and explains it in readable English. One could not ask for more. But it does offer more, a lot more. Millennial Apocalypse delves into the psychological tendencies of this huge generation, explaining how its experiences have fostered ways of thinking that can thwart effective investment strategies and often stymie investment success. As with the book’s investment advice, it backs up its psychological investigation with a wealth of evidence from surveys and readable digests of what must have been esoteric academic experiments and studies.

Chapter by chapter the book shifts gracefully from psychological insight to investment advice. In doing so it offers a lively and enjoyable read, certainly something richer and more absorbing than most investment books, even the best of them. After establishing, for instance, that millennials have a strong aversion to investment risk on the one hand and on the other a seemingly contradictory penchant for self-reliance, it goes on to explain how both traits can thwart an effective investment strategy. It explains further what readers need to know in order to overcome such tendencies.

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Of course, these and other conflicting traits, so well described in this volume, are hardly exclusive to millennials. They are, in fact, quite human and exist in abundance among boomers as well as the youthful members of the gen-z cohort. On this basis, Millennial Apocalypse has great value to many outside its specific area of focus. A read might also benefit brokers and other financial professionals. They might have no need the investment guidance, but the psychological insight should offer them a better understanding of their clients and hence ways to improve communication, something that is, after all, an essential part of any investment advisor’s skill set, or should be.

Investment beginners especially would benefit tremendously from this book. They might, however, desire more on the nuts and bolts of investment practice than Millennial Apocalypse offers. The same might be true of more sophisticated investors looking to stretch into more esoteric areas of practice. These people might find it useful to supplement their reading with something like Bite-Sized Investing. Supplemented or not, I can recommend Millennial Apocalypse as an essential guide to making investment strategy and securing investment success.

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Weaker Orders, Investment Underscore Ailing US Manufacturing – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — US manufacturing showed more signs this week of succumbing to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes that are taking a bigger bite out of demand and risk upending the economic expansion.

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The government’s first estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter and a report on December factory orders for durable goods pointed to sizable downshifts in both spending on business equipment and bookings for core capital goods.

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The durable goods report Thursday showed orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a proxy for business investment — dropped 0.2% in December after no change a month earlier. Over the fourth quarter, bookings for these core capital goods posted the weakest annualized gain since 2020. Shipments, an input for GDP, decreased for the third time in four months.

“Taken in tandem with the output data where industrial production has declined in six of the past eight months, it is increasingly evident that the manufacturing recession is well underway,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery said in a note to clients.

Also on Thursday, the GDP report showed outlays for business equipment dropped an annualized 3.7%, the largest slide since the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. That decline was part of a broader demand slowdown, which included a smaller-than-forecast advance in personal spending.

While GDP growth beat expectations, details of the report that offer a clearer picture of domestic demand were decidedly weak. Inflation-adjusted final sales to private domestic purchasers, which strip out inventories and net exports while excluding government spending, rose at a paltry 0.2% rate — also the weakest since the second quarter of 2020.

Last month’s retreat in core capital goods orders indicates manufacturing output, which already registered sharp declines in the final two months of 2022, may struggle to gain traction this quarter.

Read more: Weak US Retail Sales, Factory Data Heighten Recession Concerns

The slump in housing is also spilling over into producers of non-durable goods. Shares of Sherwin-Williams Co. tumbled this week after the paintmaker pointed to pressures stemming from a weak residential real estate market and inflation.

“We currently see a very challenging demand environment in 2023 and visibility beyond our first half is limited,” Chief Executive Officer John Morikis said on a Jan. 26 earnings call. “The Fed has also been quite clear about its intention to slow down demand in its effort to tame inflation.”

An accumulation of inventories only adds to the headwinds. Inventory building accounted for about half of the 2.9% annualized increase in fourth-quarter GDP. For the year as a whole, inventories grew $123.3 billion, the most since 2015.

With demand moderating, there’s less incentive to ramp up orders or production as companies make greater efforts to sell from existing stock.

In addition to the aforementioned data, the latest surveys of manufacturers show sustained weakness. Measures of orders at factories in four regional Fed surveys have all indicated multiple months of contraction.

All surveys released so far for this month are consistent with an overall contraction in activity that extends back through most of the second half of 2022.

Next week, the Institute for Supply Management will issue its January manufacturing survey and economists project a third-straight month of shrinking activity.

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©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Canada expected to buck trend of big investment banking layoffs – Reuters

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TORONTO, Jan 26 (Reuters) – Some of Canada’s top investment banks plan to maintain staffing levels to meet client expectations for the same level of coverage through the ups and downs of business cycles, head hunters and industry executives said.

U.S. investment banks, including Goldman Sachs (GS.N), began cutting over 3,000 employees on Jan. 11 citing a challenging macroeconomic environment, raising fears Canadian banks may follow suit. Like their global peers, many Canadian investment banks had staffed up during the pandemic only to see dealmaking slow last year.

At Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO), the country’s biggest lender, for instance, headcount at its capital markets division jumped by 71% over the two years ending Oct. 31, 2022 to 6,887 employees.

But in the meantime Canadian dealmaking fell 39.7% last year to $89.7 billion. That is more than the 36% drop in global deal values to $3.8 trillion following a stellar 2021, according to data from Dealogic.

Yet, Canadian banks have not announced layoffs and some even say they may increase headcount, though dealmaking in the new year is down nearly 50% to $3.2 billion from a year ago, according to Dealogic.

“Right now there is a sense that there isn’t a need for cuts in the system,” Dominique Fortier, partner at recruitment firm Heidrick & Struggles’ Toronto office, told Reuters.

“When there was an upswing in 2021, it happened so quickly that there was no corresponding increase in hiring and so I don’t see that we’ll have the same decrease in terms of headcount coming.”

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD.TO), which last year agreed to buy New York-based boutique investment bank Cowen Inc (COWN.O), expects to continue to grow its global investment banking business as it work towards closing the deal, a spokesperson said.

Desjardins, another Canadian lender, will continue to invest in its growing capital markets division, a spokesperson said.

EXPENSIVE PROPOSITION

Bill Vlaad, a Toronto-based recruiter who specializes in the financial services sector, said that while there was some nervousness around the stability of investment banking teams, Canada is unlikely to see U.S.-level redundancies aside from the annual cull of poor performers called “maintenance layoffs.”

“The U.S. is very nimble. They will go in and out of hotspots very quickly. Canada doesn’t have that same luxury and has to stay relatively consistent in coverage,” said Vlaad.

“You have a consistent group of people working…and they don’t fluctuate all that much year to year, decade to decade.”

But another down year for dealmaking could see bonuses taking a hit.

RBC, which was ranked No. 2 in Canada M&A, equity capital markets and debt capital markets last year according to Dealogic, has no layoff plans for investment banking in Canada, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

Spokespeople for JP Morgan, which topped the M&A league table last year, Scotiabank (BNS.TO) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) declined to comment. BMO did not respond to requests for comment.

Headhunters and lawyers say it’s less expensive to lay off bankers in the United States compared to Canada.

Howard Levitt, senior partner at employment law firm Levitt Sheikh, said Canadian investment banking employees would be entitled to somewhere between four and 27 months severance with full remuneration depending on their status, re-employability, age and length of service.

Reporting by Maiya Keidan
Editing by Denny Thomas and Deepa Babington

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Weaker Orders, Investment Underscore Ailing US Manufacturing – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — US manufacturing showed more signs this week of succumbing to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes that are taking a bigger bite out of demand and risk upending the economic expansion.

The government’s first estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter and a report on December factory orders for durable goods pointed to sizable downshifts in both spending on business equipment and bookings for core capital goods.

The durable goods report Thursday showed orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a proxy for business investment — dropped 0.2% in December after no change a month earlier. Over the fourth quarter, bookings for these core capital goods posted the weakest annualized gain since 2020. Shipments, an input for GDP, decreased for the third time in four months.

300x250x1

“Taken in tandem with the output data where industrial production has declined in six of the past eight months, it is increasingly evident that the manufacturing recession is well underway,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery said in a note to clients.

Also on Thursday, the GDP report showed outlays for business equipment dropped an annualized 3.7%, the largest slide since the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. That decline was part of a broader demand slowdown, which included a smaller-than-forecast advance in personal spending.

While GDP growth beat expectations, details of the report that offer a clearer picture of domestic demand were decidedly weak. Inflation-adjusted final sales to private domestic purchasers, which strip out inventories and net exports while excluding government spending, rose at a paltry 0.2% rate — also the weakest since the second quarter of 2020.

Last month’s retreat in core capital goods orders indicates manufacturing output, which already registered sharp declines in the final two months of 2022, may struggle to gain traction this quarter.

Read more: Weak US Retail Sales, Factory Data Heighten Recession Concerns

The slump in housing is also spilling over into producers of non-durable goods. Shares of Sherwin-Williams Co. tumbled this week after the paintmaker pointed to pressures stemming from a weak residential real estate market and inflation.

“We currently see a very challenging demand environment in 2023 and visibility beyond our first half is limited,” Chief Executive Officer John Morikis said on a Jan. 26 earnings call. “The Fed has also been quite clear about its intention to slow down demand in its effort to tame inflation.”

An accumulation of inventories only adds to the headwinds. Inventory building accounted for about half of the 2.9% annualized increase in fourth-quarter GDP. For the year as a whole, inventories grew $123.3 billion, the most since 2015.

With demand moderating, there’s less incentive to ramp up orders or production as companies make greater efforts to sell from existing stock.

In addition to the aforementioned data, the latest surveys of manufacturers show sustained weakness. Measures of orders at factories in four regional Fed surveys have all indicated multiple months of contraction. 

All surveys released so far for this month are consistent with an overall contraction in activity that extends back through most of the second half of 2022. 

Next week, the Institute for Supply Management will issue its January manufacturing survey and economists project a third-straight month of shrinking activity.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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