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Is climate change being priced into coastal real estate? Depends if you are buying from a believer or not – Financial Post

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Many believe climate change will affect economies and societies across the planet, and there are already signs that concerns are working their way into certain real estate prices.

Recently published research in the journal The Review of Regional Studies revealed that dwellings facing the highest risk of flooding from a rise in sea levels sell for a discount relative to risk-free properties.

Authors Jason Beck and Meimei Lin analyzed sales of 42,000 single-family homes in Savannah, Georgia, for the period covering 2007 to 2016. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the authors categorized vulnerability to inundation for each dwelling. The flooding risk was deemed the highest for properties expected to be inundated with a one-foot rise in sea level. The lowest risk was assigned to properties only likely to flood for a six-foot increase in sea level.

For Savannah, properties susceptible to flooding for an increase in sea level of three feet or less sold at a 3.1 per cent discount relative to dwellings deemed not at risk. Houses exposed to flooding for a rise in sea-level between three and six feet, however, did not report a discount relative to the risk-free properties.

When the authors divided the study into two distinct periods, they observed that the discount due to climate change was higher for the more recent period. This suggest that with the passage of time, risk awareness increased, and the effect of potential flooding risk grew over time.

The results come with one puzzle. Waterfront properties in many coastal regions across the globe continue to sell for a premium. If the risk of flooding posed by climate change is real, do property values reflect such risks?

A soon-to-be-published paper in the journal Review of Financial Studies offers some clues to the problem. Markus Baldauf of the University of British Columbia and others analyzed millions of residential transactions in the United States to determine the impact of future flooding vulnerability on transaction prices.

They also controlled for climate-change related beliefs at the local level by categorizing counties as “believers” and “deniers” using beliefs data from Yale Program on climate change. The Yale Climate Survey posed the question: Do you think that global warming is happening?

The answer was tabulated as the share of respondents in a county who answered yes. The authors characterized counties as “believers” if the share of those who answered yes was greater than the median value for the overall response. The “denier” counties were those who responded yes were less than the overall median response.

The authors quite interestingly found that “homes located in climate change ‘denier’ neighbourhoods sell for about seven per cent more than homes in ‘believer’ neighbourhoods.” Using the median priced house as an example, the authors demonstrated that if such a house was “relocated” from a denier county to a believer county, its value would decrease by approximately $26,220, which accounted for 13.8 per cent of the median price of $190,000.

It is not evident from the paper if the believers were overreacting to climate change risks or the deniers were in denial, the difference in valuation, though, was found to be statistically significant.

Research on housing in Helsinki, Finland, showed that when flood risks were disclosed to residents in the form of high-resolution flood maps, a statistically significant price drop was observed for coastal properties with greater probability of flooding.

The Finnish study, published in the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics in 2016, showed that in addition to the price drop, some demand for housing shifted from coastal dwellings with an elevated risk of flooding to places with similar coastal amenities, but a lower risk of flooding.

The review of research presented above allows us to draw some conclusions. Waterfront properties in coastal regions continue to be in high demand and sell at a premium. Coastal properties, though, can be categorized based on flooding risk due to global warming or other factors.

Empirical research has demonstrated that properties less or unlikely to be flooded in the future sell at a premium. However, as the flooding risk elevates, coastal properties experience a discount in property values.

Still, a drop in values is more pronounced in areas inhabited by those who believe in climate change. In counties where climate change deniers are in majority, the expected drop in valuation is lower.

Thus, the answer to the question of whether global warming affects housing prices depends at least in part on who you’re asking.

Murtaza Haider is a professor of Real Estate Management at Ryerson University. Stephen Moranis is a real estate industry veteran. They can be reached at www.hmbulletin.com.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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