Gold is still under pressure on Tuesday, but analysts are not ruling out a move higher as they pay close attention to the new Federal Reserve debate and higher U.S. yields.
February Comex gold once again lost its overnight gain and was last trading at $1,839.80, down 0.59% on the day. Earlier in the session, gold hit a daily high of $1,864 an ounce.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields are still a concern for the precious metal in the short-term, said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. “The higher bond yields make gold – a non-interest-bearing asset – less attractive for investors,” Fritsch said.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to its highest levels in nearly a year on Tuesday, last trading at 1.169%.
Higher yields are a major shift in the investor landscape, noted Kitco’s senior analyst Jim Wyckoff.
“Make no mistake, U.S. bond yields at present are nowhere near worrisomely high levels that might suggest high inflation. However, it’s the trajectory of the yields that is raising eyebrows, and merits continued close observation. High inflation is usually the enemy of the stock markets and the friend of commodity markets,” Wyckoff wrote.
Gold’s move down began on Friday when prices tumbled more than $70 in one day. “[There was] a shake-up in complacent positioning as a Blue Senate forces Treasury markets to price-in a substantial increase in supply, in turn lifting rates and the broad dollar, while wreaking havoc on gold,” explained TD Securities on Tuesday.
A lot of the price action in the last three trading sessions has been technical selling, said StoneX head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia regions Rhona O’Connell.
“The speed of the falls certainly suggests that stop-loss orders (automatic trade orders) will have been hit, and momentum trades will also have been executed,” O’Connell said on Monday. “Stop-loss orders are exactly what the name implies; they are orders resting for a trade (in this case, a sale) when a price moves through a specific level, which closes out a position that has become loss-making.”
Fed debate
Causing confusion in the marketplace this week was a new debate between the Federal Reserve officials around whether or not to taper bond purchasing during the course of the year.
“The discussion was initiated by Fed President Bostic, who can also imagine a first rate hike being made in the second half of 2022 or 2023. This would be considerably earlier than previously expected, further fuelling the upswing in yields,” said Fritsch.
It remains to be seen what the Fed will decide to do, which is why the next Fed meeting, which is scheduled to happen in about two weeks, will be gathering extra attention from the market participants.
The recent Fed speak does suggest that the central bank will want to test the resilience of the U.S. equity market, said TD Securities, adding that gold is an inflation-hedge “only inasmuch as the Fed’s stance on rates translates into a low rates vol environment.”
“Recent Fed speak has pushed back against the need to immediately extend the weighted-average maturity of their Treasury purchases, suggesting officials are testing the resilience of equity markets against higher rates. This argues for a different trading regime than we have operated in for the last nine months — if the Fed is comfortable with a steepening rates curve, it challenges the view that inflation expectations may rise without a commensurate rise in rates, suggesting gold is reverting into a safe-haven asset,” TD Securities explained.
However, it is important to differentiate short-term weakness in gold in light of the higher yields versus the longer-term potential of the precious metal.
“Looking on the horizon, it seems that an imminent covid-relief bill and the prospects for a substantial infrastructure package down the road should support higher inflation expectations and, in turn, translate into a higher price for inflation-hedge assets,” TD Securities stated.
The recent move down has shaken out a lot of the weaker positions in gold, while the macro environment remains supportive of higher prices, added O’Connell.
“While sentiment in the short term is arguing that the rise in U.S. yields, in the expectation of further stimulus, is working against gold, the prognosis for the medium term remains positive, with economic and financial elements supportive,” she wrote on Monday. “President-elect Biden has promised massive fresh stimulus … With the world’s major central banks having injected over $7Tn in liquidity last year, and with more to come, there is a lot of liquidity looking for a home, and the background fundamentals continue to point to gold as a safe-haven asset, for the next few months, at least.”
Another important point to keep in mind is that the recent selloff was not accompanied by significant ETF outflows, said Fritsch.
“Taking the inflation rate into account, real interest rates remain negative in the U.S., too. This continues to argue in favor of gold, as does the expected sharp rise in U.S. national debt due to further trillions of dollars in economic stimulus packages likely to be approved by the new U.S. government. What is remarkable is that the latest slump in the gold price was not accompanied by significant ETF outflows. It is therefore likely to have been driven first and foremost by speculative selling,” he said on Tuesday.
Most job search advice is cookie-cutter. The advice you’re following is almost certainly the same advice other job seekers follow, making you just another candidate following the same script.
In today’s hyper-competitive job market, standing out is critical, a challenge most job seekers struggle with. Instead of relying on generic questions recommended by self-proclaimed career coaches, which often lead to a forgettable interview, ask unique, thought-provoking questions that’ll spark engaging conversations and leave a lasting impression.
Your level of interest in the company and the role.
Contributing to your employer’s success is essential.
You desire a cultural fit.
Here are the top four questions experts recommend candidates ask; hence, they’ve become cliché questions you should avoid asking:
“What are the key responsibilities of this position?”
Most likely, the job description answers this question. Therefore, asking this question indicates you didn’t read the job description. If you require clarification, ask, “How many outbound calls will I be required to make daily?” “What will be my monthly revenue target?”
“What does a typical day look like?”
Although it’s important to understand day-to-day expectations, this question tends to elicit vague responses and rarely leads to a deeper conversation. Don’t focus on what your day will look like; instead, focus on being clear on the results you need to deliver. Nobody I know has ever been fired for not following a “typical day.” However, I know several people who were fired for failing to meet expectations. Before accepting a job offer, ensure you’re capable of meeting the employer’s expectations.
“How would you describe the company culture?”
Asking this question screams, “I read somewhere to ask this question.” There are much better ways to research a company’s culture, such as speaking to current and former employees, reading online reviews and news articles. Furthermore, since your interviewer works for the company, they’re presumably comfortable with the culture. Do you expect your interviewer to give you the brutal truth? “Be careful of Craig; get on his bad side, and he’ll make your life miserable.” “Bob is close to retirement. I give him lots of slack, which the rest of the team needs to pick up.”
Truism: No matter how much due diligence you do, only when you start working for the employer will you experience and, therefore, know their culture firsthand.
“What opportunities are there for professional development?”
When asked this question, I immediately think the candidate cares more about gaining than contributing, a showstopper. Managing your career is your responsibility, not your employer’s.
Cliché questions don’t impress hiring managers, nor will they differentiate you from your competition. To transform your interaction with your interviewer from a Q&A session into a dynamic discussion, ask unique, insightful questions.
Here are my four go-to questions—I have many more—to accomplish this:
“Describe your management style. How will you manage me?”
This question gives your interviewer the opportunity to talk about themselves, which we all love doing. As well, being in sync with my boss is extremely important to me. The management style of who’ll be my boss is a determining factor in whether or not I’ll accept the job.
“What is the one thing I should never do that’ll piss you off and possibly damage our working relationship beyond repair?”
This question also allows me to determine whether I and my to-be boss would be in sync. Sometimes I ask, “What are your pet peeves?”
“When I join the team, what would be the most important contribution you’d want to see from me in the first six months?”
Setting myself up for failure is the last thing I want. As I mentioned, focus on the results you need to produce and timelines. How realistic are the expectations? It’s never about the question; it’s about what you want to know. It’s important to know whether you’ll be able to meet or even exceed your new boss’s expectations.
“If I wanted to sell you on an idea or suggestion, what do you need to know?”
Years ago, a candidate asked me this question. I was impressed he wasn’t looking just to put in time; he was looking for how he could be a contributing employee. Every time I ask this question, it leads to an in-depth discussion.
Other questions I’ve asked:
“What keeps you up at night?”
“If you were to leave this company, who would follow?”
“How do you handle an employee making a mistake?”
“If you were to give a Ted Talk, what topic would you talk about?”
“What are three highly valued skills at [company] that I should master to advance?”
“What are the informal expectations of the role?”
“What is one misconception people have about you [or the company]?”
Your questions reveal a great deal about your motivations, drive to make a meaningful impact on the business, and a chance to morph the questioning into a conversation. Cliché questions don’t lead to meaningful discussions, whereas unique, thought-provoking questions do and, in turn, make you memorable.
Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.
CALGARY – Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reported a third-quarter profit of $2.27 billion, down from $2.34 billion in the same quarter last year.
The company says the profit amounted to $1.06 per diluted share for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 compared with $1.06 per diluted share a year earlier.
Product sales totalled $10.40 billion, down from $11.76 billion in the same quarter last year.
Daily production for the quarter averaged 1,363,086 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 1,393,614 a year ago.
On an adjusted basis, Canadian Natural says it earned 97 cents per diluted share for the quarter, down from an adjusted profit of $1.30 per diluted share in the same quarter last year.
The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 90 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.
CALGARY – Cenovus Energy Inc. reported its third-quarter profit fell compared with a year as its revenue edged lower.
The company says it earned $820 million or 42 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down from $1.86 billion or 97 cents per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue for the quarter totalled $14.25 billion, down from $14.58 billion in the same quarter last year.
Total upstream production in the quarter amounted to 771,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 797,000 a year earlier.
Total downstream throughput was 642,900 barrels per day compared with 664,300 in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Cenovus says its funds flow amounted to $1.05 per diluted share in its latest quarter, down from adjusted funds flow of $1.81 per diluted share a year earlier.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.
