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Is Netflix a good investment? No, says this fund manager – Cantech Letter

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How high can Netflix (Netflix Stock Quote, Chart, News NASDAQ:NFLX) go?

With everyone and their dog staying at home these days, streaming TV and its reigning champion Netflix are now bigger than ever —and so is Netflix the stock, which last week hit a new high and hasn’t looked back since.

And as the days of COVID-19 keep dragging on, investors may be wondering whether now’s the time to climb on board the Netflix express. No, says portfolio manager Darren Sissons, who argues that the stock is too just expensive.

Netflix kept up its torrid pace on Monday, once again reaching above $330 per share as the market continues to favour tech names benefiting from the stay-at-home culture imposed by COVID-19 restrictions.

And while ‘Will they or won’t they?’ could apply to Netflix’s reality TV hits like Love is Blind, it’s equally apt for Tuesday’s quarterly report from NFLX, which is expected to smash management’s guidance for the period but whether analysts’ expectations will be matched or surpassed is another question.

Impressing on guidance would be a bonus for Netflix, which has underwhelmed in a number of quarters of late. Last year’s first quarter results, for example, were both an earnings and revenue beat but management’s call for second quarter EPS of $0.55 per share was well under the $0.99 per share expected by analysts.

Netflix
Darren Sissons

The Q2, 2019 story was trouble of a different sort, as Netflix had lower-than-expected international subscription additions, even as earnings again came as a beat at $0.60 per share.

Netflix had previously called for first quarter 2020 earnings of $1.66 per share on revenue of $5.73 billion.

But while the company is assuredly firing on all cylinders at the moment, having successfully emerged from a storm of concern surrounding the debut of competitor platforms like Disney+, Sissons says there’s little to justify the sky-high valuation.

“Virtually every house at the moment has got Netflix, to the extent that they have a smart TV. The kids are on it, everybody’s using it,” said Sissons of Campbell Lee & Ross Investment Management, speaking on BNN Bloomberg on Monday.

“So I do think there’s some upside but I’ve always found it a very, very rich valuation of the company, its shares. I think there are different formats that people are starting to consume content on. But for me, ultimately I just find Netflix a little rich,” he said. “I would look perhaps at a Disney story although obviously the jury’s a little bit out there, and there are other streaming opportunities so from a valuation perspective.”

“I’m on the sidelines, but I do recognize how pervasive the product offering is, and so on a net balance basis I would say don’t confuse a good product or a good company with a good investment,” Sissons said. For Netflix’s first quarter, analysts are calling for EPS of $1.64 per share on sales of $5.7 billion, with subscription additions expected to come in at about seven million.

Year-to-date, Netflix is up 35 per cent.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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