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Is Russia’s economy bouncing back? – The Week UK

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Russia’s economy has so far been able to fend off collapse and could even survive an EU-wide embargo on oil imports, experts have warned. 

Aided “by capital controls and high interest rates”, The Economist said “the rouble is now as valuable as it was before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”. And despite forecasts of economic collapse, Moscow is “keeping up with payments of its foreign-currency bonds”.

As Vladimir Putin massed troops on the border with Ukraine, much was made of whether Russia’s “fortress” economy would be capable of withstanding Western sanctions. So can Moscow ride out the sanctions storm? 

Crisis averted? 

Despite “​​predictions of doom” for Russia’s economy, Foreign Policy said that oil exports to countries such as India and Turkey have “actually risen” since Putin gave the order for an invasion. Meanwhile, “its financial sector is so far avoiding a serious liquidity crisis”.

The “real economy” is showing signs that it is “surprisingly resilient too”, The Economist said. Most “measures of Russian economic activity are largely holding up”, with Russian citizens seemingly still “spending fairly freely on cafés, bars and restaurants”.

In mid-April, the nation’s “central bank lowered its key interest rate from 17% to 14%”, a signal that “a financial panic which began in February has eased slightly”. Russia’s economy is “undoubtedly shrinking”, the paper said.

But early “predictions of a GDP decline of up to 15% this year are starting to look pessimistic”.

Fuel in the tank

The sanctions against Moscow “may work in the long run”, Foreign Policy reported. But “for now many of the same countries that are sanctioning Russia are still seriously undercutting their efforts by buying energy” from Moscow. 

“Putin is continuing to make at least a billion dollars a day selling oil and gas, and the lion’s share is from Europe,” Edward Fishman, a former Europe specialist at the US State Department, told the magazine.

“Individual European countries are sending military assistance to Ukraine but it’s dwarfed by payments they’re making to Russia for oil and gas.”

This could all change if the EU delivers on its pledge to ban imports of Russian oil.

But Sergey Aleksashenko, the former deputy governor of Russia’s central bank, told the Financial Times (FT) the ban is in reality “not very powerful”, as large increases in the price of oil will counteract the costs of losing the European market.

Russia’s state budget “is heavily dependent on revenues from oil exports”, the FT said, “which accounted for 45% on its total income in 2021”. But the government will continue to “break even if Russian producers can sell their oil for $44 per barrel or more”.

For the moment, it appears sanctions have “made that possibility more, not less, likely”, the paper added, with Russia’s “key crude blend, Urals, trading at $70 a barrel”.

Long-term damage

Moscow’s economy “seems to be holding up better than initially expected”, said Peter Rutland, a professor of government at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. Amid “unprecedented sanctions and an exodus of Western companies”, the rouble has “recovered all of its earlier losses” and “billions of dollars” are flowing into Moscow through energy sales.

But writing on The Conversation, Rutland said that “Russia’s apparently robust financial situation is something of a chimera”, one that “masks the real pain being experienced by Russians and stress on the economy”.

Russian individuals and companies are “encountering shortages of a wide range of goods”, he said, including “pharmaceutical supplies, such as asthma inhalers, and drugs for Parkinson’s disease”. And the picture is “particularly grave in the information technology sector”, which is “dependent on imported hardware and software”.

While the economy is holding firm, “the future looks bleak for Russian citizens”, he added, “who will continue to bear the brunt of the sanctions”.

That Russia’s economy will not collapse entirely is also not a given. It is already “teetering on the brink of default”, The Telegraph said, and worryingly for the Kremlin, which has “averted disaster for now”, is increasingly “at the mercy of US officials”.

Moscow “hasn’t yet buckled under the West’s financial firestorm”, the paper added. “But the long-lasting blow of a default could be coming soon.”

Putin may devise a way of turning Russia into “a permanently state-sanctioned economy”, like, for example, Iran or North Korea, Vox said. But the longer Western sanctions remain in place the worse life in Russia will be, the news site added – and citizens with “the least power may be punished the most”.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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