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Israel's economy shrinks more than expected on Gaza war – BBC.com

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Getty Images Damaged shop in Tel Aviv, hit by a rocket fired by Hamas on 7 OctoberGetty Images

Israel’s economy shrank by far more than expected in the wake of conflict with Hamas in Gaza, according to official figures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) – a key measure of a country’s economic health – fell by 19% on an annualised basis in the fourth quarter of 2023.

That is the equivalent of a fall of 5% between October and December.

GDP was “directly affected” by the outbreak of the conflict on 7 October, the Central Bureau of Statistics said.

Israel and Hamas have been at war after gunmen from the Palestinian group launched an unprecedented attack on Israel from Gaza – the deadliest in Israel’s history.

About 1,200 people were killed during the attack. Hamas, which is considered a terrorist group by Israel, the US, the European Union and the UK, also took more than 250 men, women and children hostage.

An Israeli military campaign has followed, which has killed 29,000 people in the Palestinian territory, according to the Hamas-run health ministry there.

Experts said the data released on Monday by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics was much worse than had been expected.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was for an annualised decline of 10.5%.

The Central Bureau of Statistics said the war had sharply curtailed spending, travel and investment at the end of last year.

It said private spending dropped by 26.3%, exports fell by 18.3% and there had been a 67.8% slide in investment in fixed assets, especially in residential buildings. The construction sector suffered from a lack of labour, due to military call-ups and a reduction in Palestinian workers.

Meanwhile, government spending, mainly on war expenses and compensating businesses and households, jumped by 88.1%.

Despite the sharp drop in GDP between October and December, Israel’s economy grew by 2% for the full year.

However, before the 7 October attacks, it had been expected to expand by 3.5%.

Liam Peach, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the contraction of Israel’s economy was “much worse than had been expected and highlights the extent of the hit from the Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza”.

He said the country’s growth outlook for 2024 “now looks likely to post one of its weakest rates on record”.

A map of the area controlled by the Houthis

Elsewhere, the conflict has affected trade. Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have been targeting cargo ships on the Red Sea that are heading to the Suez Canal.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Monday that the attacks had cut Suez Canal revenue by between 40% and 50% this year.

The Red Sea is one of the world’s most important routes for cargo – almost 15% of global seaborne trade usually passes through the area.

The Houthis have been carrying out strikes from bases in Yemen on ships which they claim are Israeli-owned, flagged or operated, or are heading to Israeli ports. However, the owners and operators of many vessels claim they have no links with Israel at all.

The US and the UK have carried out retaliatory strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in turn.

But even before this, some of the world’s largest shipping companies had stopped their vessels from passing through the strait.


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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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