The investment world is great at producing favored picks that become “sure winners” just as they tire and fall. April and October are popular months for old trends to die and new ones to begin.
Trend changes often involve 180-degree turnabouts, not only in the previous leading and lagging investments, but also in investors’ thought processes (a combination of reasoning and emotions).
So, how do we set our investment clocks forward now?
First, by realizing that current beliefs attached to winning ideas are no more than what was. The key realization is that past performance is meaningless in determining prospects. Instead, the view should be wariness of high past performance based on enthusiastic visions.
Note: This issue brings up the odd investor reaction to high flying performers: A higher level of assurance that more is yet to come. The proper view is that big gains can mean increased risk
Second, by looking towards the future with reasonable expectations and common sense
Third, by viewing the past “non-winners” as potential coming winners. No investment approach lasts forever, and often it’s the lagging investments in one period that move to the front in the next period. (This viewpoint is the source of “contrarian” investing that can produce good gains with reasonable risk.)
The current example
The media happily report the stock market making new highs practically every day. However, compared to the ruckus in the fourth circus ring, the market action looks uninspired. (See “Stock Market Upsetting Professionals – Don’t Worry” for discussion of stock market’s “crazy” fourth ring.)
The “craziness” in the fourth ring is beneficial because the actions there make the overwrought beliefs obvious. And those beliefs are wrapped up in three investments: GameStop
and Bitcoin. This graph shows the cumulative performance from just before the pandemic hit (January 1, 2020) through Friday, March 12, 2021.
There’s no arguing with those results. Everybody would be thrilled to win those lottery-payoff type returns. Note that the stock market’s nice 24% return is barely visible compared to these barn-burners and others like them. And that’s why so many investors have gravitated toward the day-trading-for-riches investment approach. What’s not known is how many of them are being burnt.
Misunderstanding the zero-sum game
Periodically, we read about the stock market being a zero-sum game. That is a mistaken view because stock prices are valuations based on company fundamentals and outlooks. They can rise and fall independently from demand and supply volume. A common example is during the earnings report period. Results are released when the market is closed, and any unexpected revelations show up as a “gap” between the previous close and the next opening. Thus, if positive, every shareholder is a winner.
However, that does not apply to a gambling game. And that’s what GameStop-type stocks have become. Valuation is irrelevant as investors attempt to beat out one another, buying low and selling high. Obviously, there is someone on the other side of those trades, hence the zero-sum label.
But there is a much worse issue involved: Zero-sum does not mean gains and losses are split equally. That’s because Wall Street traders are active, possessing ample funds, superior experience and a natural savviness in game-playing. They even hone their skills trading against one another. Therefore, when a boatload of newbies offload onto the trading room floor, they are fair game. Yes, there are media stories about a few winners, but there are thousands of losers who don’t want to talk about it.
In the end, fundamentals will win out, as will Wall Street traders. That will leave many (most?) individual investor-traders high and dry. Most importantly, it will leave all those “meme” stocks in the tank.
Therefore, turn to future reality and investigate those overlooked “non-winners” of the past. The could be hidden gems, and that’s where Barrick Gold enters the picture:
Barrick Gold – A potential winner for tomorrow
So, what about the Barrick Gold 11% return? Why is it even on this graph?
It’s there, not because of what it has done, but because of what it could do. There are four reasons for considering this boring looking investment:
First, inflation (more accurately, “fiat money inflation”) will increase. The huge expansion of the money supply relative to the economy plus the eventual expansion from bank lending growing again will foster growth of the economy and the price level.
Second, gold will become popular again when two conditions happen: Inflation rises and gold’s price rises
Third, Barrick Gold, as a company, can produce added earnings growth beyond gold’s price rise through sound business management.
Fourth, as discussed above, gold has lost its luster in the recent investment period. Therefore, it has the potential for playing catch-up as investors return.
The bottom line: Now is the time to make a new investment strategy
The extreme gyrations and the popular press accounts mean it is time to avoid the highly popular, fast-acting investments. Instead, refocus on less exciting but more fundamentally sound investments.
British Columbia tackles innovation investment gap – The Globe and Mail
The B.C. government will create its own investment fund to help promising B.C. companies scale up and keep jobs here at home, as part of its post-pandemic recovery plan.
The InBC strategic investment fund, announced in Monday’s Throne Speech, will be administered by a new Crown corporation. The initiative is designed to respond to concerns that the province’s world-leading innovations in sectors such as life sciences are consistently flowing to other jurisdictions with better investment climates.
The Throne Speech, read by Lieutenant-Governor Janet Austin, offers a self-congratulatory account of the government’s response to the health and economic challenges brought by COVID-19 over the past year, and acknowledges that the province is still in the grips of the pandemic. But it also focuses on plans to rebuild the economy.
“We open this sitting of the legislature at a turning point in our fight to end the pandemic,” she read. “The threat of new variants means we cannot relax, even as your government accelerates the largest mass-immunization program in B.C.’s history.”
Ms. Austin cited the province’s contributions to the global effort to fight COVID-19, noting that its life-sciences companies have helped develop a vaccine and a treatment for the virus, as well as the development of an ICU ventilator for use in Canadian hospitals.
“Their work will not only help bring us out of the pandemic, it will position our province for success in the years ahead,” she said.
The speech predicts the province will find continued growth in trade. “Global markets are changing in ways that offer significant opportunities for B.C.’s goods and services. Prices are expected to continue to reflect environmental, social and governance aspects of production,” it states. “British Columbia firms will be able to take advantage of a premium paid for inclusive and sustainable products.”
But leaders in health sciences and the high-tech sectors have noted that B.C., while it excels in research and development, fails to foster a business environment where those innovations can stay and grow.
Quebec and Ontario have helped secure life sciences investments by partnering with Ottawa to offer incentives. Most recently, the global pharmaceutical giant Sanofi unveiled its plans to build an influenza vaccine manufacturing facility in Toronto, after the federal government and the province of Ontario committed to invest close to half a billion dollars in the project.
The B.C. government provided no detail on the new investment fund on Monday, and it is unclear how the new agency will assist. “This new strategic fund will help promising B.C. companies scale up, anchor talent – keeping jobs and investment at home in British Columbia,” it reads.
It also promises additional funding to address the challenges that COVID-19 has exposed for the homeless, for health care and for seniors in long-term care. “In the year ahead, your government will continue to improve care for seniors by hiring thousands of new workers for long-term care and fixing the cracks COVID-19 has exposed.”
The Throne Speech also promises initiatives to assist British Columbians who struggle with the cost of living. The budget, which will be introduced on April 20, will include funds to help get thousands of rental homes built throughout the province, and will expand access to the province’s $10-a-day daycare spaces.
The government is also promising changes to its vehicle insurance rates through the Insurance Corporation of B.C. ICBC will deliver a 20-per-cent cut to car insurance rates, in addition to the COVID-19 rebate that was issued earlier this year.
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eBay Is Helping Gen-Y and Gen-Z Get Their Investment Kicks – Forbes
At a time when Sotheby’s is auctioning off rare sneakers, you know the nature of investing has changed. Those changes are coming as Generations Y and Z are looking to invest in what they love, while changing the nature of what investment-grade goods look like.
eBay, for one has been leading the charge and looks to remain the go-to agent for its monetization. And, to combat counterfeiting while supporting the segment’s growth, the online marketplace is innovating. eBay has begun a series of pop-up authentication events, intended to give their collectors and sellers a new source to both authenticate and value their rare kicks, as well as high-end watches, and collector cards.
Sneakers and watches are two of eBays most popular luxury categories. There are more than a half-million sneaker listings on eBay, and over 165,00 luxury watches listed on any given day. And over the past year the marketplace saw a 10 percent increase for high-end time pieces like Rolex, whose sales have jumped 60 percent since 2019.
The on-site authentication events are an extension of the recently expanded “Authentication Guarantee” services that eBay offers, utilizing an independent team of industry experts. It’s the same group that authenticated a $1 million pair of 1985 Air Jordon 1’s, signed by non-other than the “Air-apparent” himself.
The program first launched in LA’s Koreatown, back in November 2020 in a vintage, fifties-looking converted gas station. Participants handed the goods off to an attendant, who brought the items in to the inspection teams. The process was in full view via large outside screens, and successful assessments earned an eBay Authentication Guarantee. Participants were able to receive “on the spot” offers or elected to list the items themselves.
The East-Hollywood, LA experiment was successful enough to replicate. And pop-up authentication events took place this past Friday and Saturday in Atlanta. They are expected to again be replicated in Las Vegas, Seattle, Nashville, and Austin in coming weeks. Admissions to the events are free, without an appointment.
Playing A New Card
In a parallel effort, by late April eBay will add an imaging listing tool to its mobile app, designed to facilitate more efficient listings of trading cards. This is another category that has evolved from mere collecting to high-buck investing.
Beginning in late April 2021, eBay plans to launch an image listing tool in its mobile app to initially support Magic the Gathering cards and ultimately Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh! as well. Users will point their camera at the card and hold to scan. A list of possible matches will pop-up, along with details on game name, title, card set, number and rarity. After tapping the closest match, the user can add their details and pricing to post. eBay plans to add other collectable and trading cards to the offering later in 2021.
Joe Biden tax plan affect US investment in Ireland?
Wander around Dublin’s Grand Canal Quay and you get a sense of how successful the Republic of Ireland has been in attracting US technology companies.
Google has its international headquarters across a campus of offices and will soon have more space nearby at the Boland’s Mill development.
Just across the canal, Facebook has its international HQ with Tripadvisor and AirBnB close by.
Stripe, the United States-based payments firm, could soon be in the area.
Last month its Irish founders said they’re planning about 1,000 new jobs in Ireland.
The head of the country’s inward investment agency, Martin Shanahan, described the Stripe investment as a “phenomenal signal from Ireland and about Ireland”.
But there’s now a risk that the pipeline of investment from the US could dry up if President Joe Biden can lead a major change to global tax rules.
Irish tax advantage under threat
In among those tech company HQs in Dublin’s docklands, you will also find the offices of the lawyers and accountants who help US firms use Ireland’s tax system to reduce their global tax bills.
For the last 20 years Ireland has had a simple message: invest here and you will pay just 12.5% tax on your Irish profits.
That compares favourably to headline corporation tax rates of 19% in the UK, 30% in Germany and 26.5% in Canada.
It is an article of faith in Irish politics that the 12.5% rate has been vital to attracting US investment.
But that tax advantage could be seriously undermined if President Biden gets his way.
The most striking of his proposals – and the one of most consequence for Ireland – is for a global minimum corporate tax rate.
The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has suggested a 21% minimum rate.
“We are working with G20 nations to agree to a global minimum corporate tax rate that can stop the race to the bottom,” she said in a speech last week.
“Together we can use a global minimum tax to make sure the global economy thrives based on a more level playing field in the taxation of multinational corporations.”
What would it mean for Ireland’s economy?
Essentially that would mean if a company paid tax at the lower Irish rate, then the US (or other countries) could top up that company’s tax in their jurisdiction to get it to the global minimum.
So if a US company had a presence in Ireland primarily for the tax advantage, that advantage would disappear.
This is a matter of urgency for the Biden administration because it is planning to raise corporate taxes at home and would prefer not to see more tax revenues leaking to other countries.
Peter Vale, tax partner with accounting firm Grant Thornton in Dublin, thinks a global minimum rate is now an inevitability.
“If you’d asked me six months ago I’d have been quite sceptical, there was a lot of opposition,” he said.
“But it’s now moving by the day and, with the US behind it with its plans, I think we’re going to arrive at some sort of global consensus.”
He said the key issue for Ireland becomes the level at which the rate is set.
“I don’t think 21% is where it will land, I suspect it will be somewhere in the teens.”
Other details will be important too: “Exactly how will you work out what the rate is a company is paying in Ireland and what does that mean in terms of any top up? The detail becomes pretty critical.”
The Biden proposals have reinvigorated work which is being led by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), an intergovernmental economic organisation.
It began a project known as Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) in 2013, which aims to mitigate tax loopholes which currently allow companies to shift profits from higher tax countries to lower tax countries like Ireland.
‘Intention to target Ireland’
Perhaps ironically Ireland appears to have been a major beneficiary of some of the early outcomes of the BEPS project.
The country’s corporation tax receipts have soared from about €4bn (£3.5bn) in 2013 to around €12bn (£10.5bn) in 2020.
Seamus Coffey, an expert in Irish corporation tax, told the At the Margin podcast that this was because of the focus on what is known as “substance”.
That is the principle that companies should declare their profits in the location where they have real operations or activities.
“Countries like Ireland have been a huge winner from BEPS mark one,” he said.
“The objective was to align profit with substance and we actually are one of the countries where these companies have substance, whether it be pharmaceuticals, computer chips, medical devices and the ICT companies.
“I think when countries in the G7 looked at this they thought ‘that’s not quite what we wanted’ – maybe the intention was to target countries like Ireland, not benefit them.”
When could we see an impact?
In the next round of BEPS, with the US on board, those other rich countries are more likely to get what they want at Ireland’s expense.
But even if President Biden can agree the reforms at home and abroad, how quickly would that have an impact in Ireland?
Mr Coffey thinks any negative effects would not be instant because tax is not everything.
“Are the ICT companies likely to head off around the world, scattering their headquarters to various different cities?” he said.
“There are benefits to being co-located. At least in the medium term we are not likely to see a huge shock.”
That is echoed by the IDA (Industrial Development Authority), the inward investment agency, which points to Ireland’s workforce and significant clusters of specialisation in areas like medical technology and pharmaceuticals.
The IDA also sees the Brexit angle, pointing out that Ireland, unlike its UK neighbour, is part of the EU’s single market.
In a statement, it said: “Ireland is at the heart of Europe. Ireland’s continued commitment to the EU is a core part of Ireland’s value proposition to foreign investors, offering a base to access the European Single Market and to grow their business.
“Ireland also benefits from free movement of people within the EU, giving businesses located in Ireland access to a European labour market.”
The Irish government has been engaged in the BEPS process, though in a speech last year the Finance Minister, Pascal Donohoe, said he remained to be convinced of the need for minimum taxation, beyond the specific challenges relating to the digital economy.
This week a government spokesman said: “Ireland is aware of the US proposals.
“We are constructively engaging in these discussions, and will consider any proposals carefully noting that political level discussions on these issues have not yet taken place with the 139 countries involved in this process.”
Source: – BBC News