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Jair Bolsonaro’s future as a political candidate on the line as Brazil trial begins

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Brazil’s top electoral court on Thursday began hearing a case that could torpedo the political future of former president Jair Bolsonaro by rendering him ineligible for public office for eight years.

Judges are evaluating a case filed by Brazil’s Democratic Labour Party, which claims the far-right leader abused his power by using government communication channels to promote his campaign and cast unfounded doubts on the country’s electronic voting system.

The session in the capital, Brasilia, began with Judge Benedito Gonçalves reading his report on the case.

Bolsonaro’s lawyer, Tarcísio Vieira de Carvalho, told judges the case was “riddled with ideological falsehood.” The court’s president, Alexandre de Moraes, suspended the session after roughly three hours, before any judge had cast a vote, citing time and scheduled obligations at the Supreme Court.

Subsequent sessions have been slated for next week, but the trial could extend for several months if any of the six other judges requests additional time to review the case.

Both the political party that filed the case and Bolsonaro’s lawyers will have time to make its arguments.

In comments to journalists on Wednesday outside the Senate, the former president acknowledged he could be barred from public office, although he denies any wrongdoing.

“I wouldn’t like to lose my political rights,” Bolsonaro told reporters on Wednesday. “I don’t know whether I will be a candidate for mayor or city councillor next year, I don’t know whether I will be a senator or president in the future. But to be a candidate, I need to keep my political rights.”

Also faces criminal probes

While Bolsonaro often railed against the voting system, the suit’s focus is a meeting last year on July 18 that Bolsonaro convened with dozens of foreign ambassadors at the presidential palace. It was broadcast on state television for nearly an hour.

Paulo Gonet Branco, one of the top prosecutors at Brazil’s electoral court, favoured Bolsonaro’s ineligibility in his report on the case, which will be analyzed by the court’s panel. It is comprised of judges from the country’s top courts, the Supreme Court and the Superior Court of Justice, plus two appointees.

Branco’s report asserts that Bolsonaro misled voters about a federal police investigation into the 2018 elections in order to claim the country’s voting system isn’t reliable and that he presented that information to ambassadors in the meeting last year.

“We knew what he was going to say, that was no surprise. But it is quite unusual to convene the diplomatic community to talk about a domestic issue,” one diplomat who attended told Reuters at the time, on condition of anonymity..

Planalto Presidential Palace security members inspect offices destroyed by supporters of Brazilian former president Jair Bolsonaro after an invasion in Brasilia on Jan. 9. The events surrounding the riot, which occurred while Bolsonaro was in the U.S., are being investigated. (Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images)

The Supreme Court is simultaneously investigating the former president for having shared details of that investigation — a case proceeding under seal.

“The evidence against him is very robust,” said Rodrigo Prando, a political science professor at Mackenzie University in Sao Paulo. “Bolsonaro speaks in live broadcasts, on Twitter. I never saw anyone provide so much material against himself as Bolsonaro did.”

Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida days before his term ended, and returned on March 30. He has a ceremonial leadership role within his political party and has travelled around Brazil as a critic of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated him in last October’s election, which featured the narrowest margin in over three decades.

If the electoral court strips Bolsonaro of his political rights, he could appeal to the Supreme Court. However, there are other suits pending with the electoral court seeking the same outcome. And that is just a fraction of his legal troubles, which also include criminal investigations.

Expected to wield influence regardless of result

On Thursday, Bolsonaro travelled to the southern Brazilian city of Porto Alegre, where he will attend an event of his Liberal Party.

He is also expected to help stump for mayors in next year’s municipal election — whether or not he has his political rights. Riding the Bolsonaro wave in the 2022 general election, his Liberal Party won more congressional seats than any other and became the biggest in both the Lower House and Senate.

Bolsonaro, 68, will continue to wield some political power until the 2026 presidential elections, even if he is declared ineligible to run, said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo.

 

Nothing is Foreign27:47Bibles, beef, and bullets: Why Bolsonaro supporters aren’t moving on

 

“Bolsonaro will be finished as a presidential candidate if he indeed loses this trial,” he said. “Many voters would only vote for him, but from the polling we have seen, the vast majority of conservatives and right-leaning voters are ready to look beyond Bolsonaro and pick any other candidate, even if not supported by him.”

For the time being, though, Bolsonaro’s ineligibility could throw Brazil’s right-wing political hierarchy into disarray.

 

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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