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Economy

Jobs growth surges in US despite slowdown fears

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Employers added 517,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said.

That was far more than expected, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.4% – the lowest rate since 1969.

Analysts are struggling to figure out what is happening in the world’s largest economy, which is being buffeted by a mix of higher borrowing costs and rising prices.

Many forecasters have warned that the odds of a recession this year are unusually high, pointing to data which has indicated a recent pullback in consumer spending, declines in manufacturing and a sharp slowdown in home sales.

A recent survey by research company Morning Consult suggested nearly half of the public thinks the economy has already fallen into recession, or a period of decline.

Despite this, the labour market has remained strong – though the gains in January shocked even those economists who have argued against the gloomy predictions.

“This is a breathtaking number,” economist Justin Wolfers, a professor at the University of Michigan, wrote on Twitter following the report.

Dante DeAntonio, director at Moody’s Analytics, cautioned against reading too much into a single month of data.

His firm still expects employment growth to slow “dramatically” in the months ahead, and warned that the probability of a recession remained “uncomfortably high”.

But US President Joe Biden, whose approval ratings dropped last year as prices surged – with Republicans blaming his spending plans – said the report showed his critics were wrong in their grim interpretations of the economy.

“For the past two years we’ve heard a chorus of critics write off my economic plan,” he said. “Today’s data makes crystal clear what I’ve always known in my gut – these critics and cynics are wrong.”

The hiring in January was widespread, led by bars and restaurants, which are continuing to recover from job losses sparked by the pandemic.

The car manufacturing and tech industries were among the few parts of the economy to report job losses.

Those sectors are sensitive to borrowing costs, which shot up last year, as the US central bank took steps to stabilise consumer prices.

By raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve is aiming to cool demand, easing the pressures pushing up prices.

However, the increase in rates, coming at a time when price increases have started to ease, has raised fears that officials will tip the economy into a painful contraction, bringing economic activity to an abrupt slowdown that leads to firms to cutting jobs.

The head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said this week he was hopeful the US central bank can avoid that scenario.

But he warned that the Fed was focused on curbing inflation and remained worried that the job market was too strong to allow price growth to stabilise around the bank’s 2% target.

Friday’s report showed wages rose 4.4% over the 12 months to January.

Pay increases did not keep pace with price inflation last year and have shown signs of cooling in recent months.

“It’s difficult to see how wage pressures can possibly soften sufficiently when jobs growth is as strong as this and it’s even more difficult to see the Fed stop raising rates and entertain ideas of rate cuts when there is such explosive economic news coming in,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

“The market is going to go through a rollercoaster ride as it tries to decide if this is good or bad news. For now, though, looks like the US economy is doing absolutely fine.”

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Economy

Mark Carney to lead Liberal economic task force ahead of next election

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will chair a Liberal task force on economic growth, the party announced Monday as Liberal MPs meet to strategize for the upcoming election year.

Long touted as a possible leadership successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Carney was already scheduled to address caucus as part of the retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., this week.

The Liberals say he will help shape the party’s policies for the next election, and will report to Trudeau and the Liberal platform committee.

“As chair of the Leader’s Task Force on Economic Growth, Mark’s unique ideas and perspectives will play a vital role in shaping the next steps in our plan to continue to grow our economy and strengthen the middle class, and to urgently seize new opportunities for Canadian jobs and prosperity in a fast-changing world,” Trudeau said in a statement Monday.

Trudeau is expected to address Liberal members of Parliament later this week. It will be the first time he faces them as a group since MPs left Ottawa in the spring.

Still stinging from a devastating byelection loss earlier this summer, the caucus is now also reeling from news that its national campaign director has resigned and the party can no longer count on the NDP to stave off an early election.

Last week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ended his agreement with Trudeau to have the New Democrats support the government on key votes in exchange for movement on priorities such as dental care.

All of this comes as the Liberals remain well behind the Conservatives in the polls despite efforts to refocus on issues like housing and affordability.

Some Liberal MPs hope to hear more about how Trudeau plans to win Canadians back when he addresses his team this week.

Carney appears to be part of that plan, attempting to bring some economic heft to a government that has struggled to resonate with voters who are struggling with inflation and soaring housing costs.

Trudeau said several weeks ago that he has long tried to coax Carney to join his government. The economist and former investment banker spent five years as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the last Conservative government before hopping across the pond to head up the Bank of England for seven years.

Carney is just one of a host of names suggested as possible successors to Trudeau, who has insisted he will lead the party into the next election despite simmering calls for him to step aside.

Those calls reached a new intensity earlier this summer when the Conservatives won a longtime Liberal stronghold in a major byelection upset in Toronto—St. Paul’s.

But Trudeau held fast to his decision to stay and rejected calls to convene his entire caucus over the summer to respond to their concerns about their collective prospects.

The prime minister has spoken with Liberal MPs one-on-one over the last few months and attended several regional meetings ahead of the Nanaimo retreat, including Ontario and Quebec, which together account for 70 per cent of the caucus.

While several Liberals who don’t feel comfortable speaking publicly say the meetings were positive, the party leader has mainly held to his message that he is simply focused on “delivering for Canadians.”

Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer was in Nanaimo ahead of the meeting to express his scorn for the Liberal strategy session, and for Carney’s involvement.

“It doesn’t matter what happens in this retreat, doesn’t matter what kinds of (communications) exercise they go through, or what kind of speculation they all entertain about who might lead them in the next election,” said Scheer, who called a small press conference on the Nanaimo harbourfront Monday.

“It’s the same failed Liberal policies causing the same hardships for Canadians.”

He said Carney and Trudeau are “basically the same people,” and that Carney has supported Liberal policies, including the carbon tax.

The three-day retreat is expected to include breakout meetings for the Indigenous, rural and women’s caucuses before the full group convenes later this week.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Here’s a quick glance at unemployment rates for August, by province

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OTTAWA – Canada’s national unemployment rate was 6.6 per cent in August. Here are the jobless rates last month by province (numbers from the previous month in brackets):

_ Newfoundland and Labrador 10.4 per cent (9.6)

_ Prince Edward Island 8.2 per cent (8.9)

_ Nova Scotia 6.7 per cent (7.0)

_ New Brunswick 6.5 per cent (7.2)

_ Quebec 5.7 per cent (5.7)

_ Ontario 7.1 per cent (6.7)

_ Manitoba 5.8 per cent (5.7)

_ Saskatchewan 5.4 per cent (5.4)

_ Alberta 7.7 per cent (7.1)

_ British Columbia 5.8 per cent (5.5)

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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